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Voters in Texas will head to the polls on Tuesday for a Republican primary US Senate first between State Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump, and John Cornyn, who represented Texas in the US Senate since 2002.
Whoever wins the race will advance to the November midterm elections, where they will face Democratic nominee James Talarico.
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Democrats have not held a state seat in Texas since 1994, but the races have grown significantly over the past decade. Paxton, the likely Republican nominee, appears unlikely to fare well against Talarico in the general election.
Why is Texas now competing where it never was before? Al Jazeera analyzed why change may be on the way in Texas in November.
Who are the candidates?
Ken Paxton, 63, is a Republican attorney general from Texas, who was endorsed by Trump in a lengthy speech on the president’s television channel, Truth Social. Trump’s longtime ally is known to take on Big Tech companies, including Facebook in 2022 – for using Texas biometric data without permission – and Netflix earlier this month.
Paxton has also made border security a central part of his platform, saying he wants to finish building Trump’s border wall with Mexico. He also promised to reduce taxes when investing in cryptocurrency development.
In Paxton’s speech, Trump said his rival, John Cornyn, did not help him when “times were tough”.
Cornyn, however, voted with Trump 99 percent of the time and was in close agreement with Trump on immigration and border security.
Cornyn, 74, a native of Houston, served as attorney general and as a judge on the Texas Supreme Court before entering the Senate.
Why are Republicans worried about Paxton?
Paxton’s history is full of controversy. He faces charges of adultery, security fraud, and supporting the January 6 terrorist attacks, which political analysts say Democrats could use in their election campaign.
“Ken Paxton is showing a very rich Democrat scene in November: countless adultery cases, housing fraud, securities fraud, a 7,000% increase in the value of his time in office, whistleblower retaliation, support for January 6th, and relationships with shamers. Nate Paulincluding using his position as attorney general for personal gain. There’s a lot to use,” Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, told Al Jazeera.
Among the most vocal Texas Republicans opposed to Paxton is Matt Shaheen, a member of the state’s House of Representatives, who has said Paxton could damage GOP hopes statewide.
“Ken Paxton is the best Democrat hope to turn Texas blue!” Shaheen he wrote in the post on X.
In other places, he said: “Paxton would be the opposite of Talarico and would get the Republicans killed.”
Shaheen was talking about a research – commissioned by Texans for a Conservative Majority, a pro-Cornyn super political action committee (PAC), and shared by the Texas Tribune – which reported that Paxton’s nomination would result in a five to eight point drop for Republicans in down-ballot races. Limits can turn safe Republican districts into ones Democrats can flip.
Shaheen declined Al Jazeera’s request for an interview.
Republicans are also concerned about how the race will affect the balance of power in the US Senate. The victory of the Democrat will be historic, considering that the government has been held by the Republicans since 1994. But it will also make the Democratic Party to get closer to the control of the Senate, which, will give the power to choose not only the members of the Cabinet, but also the heads of government agencies and judges.
Trump’s endorsement of Paxton came amid widespread frustration with Senate Republicans after they refused to comply with Trump’s bid to remove House Speaker Elizabeth MacDonough, who ruled that Republicans would not include funding for Trump’s proposed immigration reform bill.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he wants Cornyn’s approval.
Citing a senior Republican source, the NOTUS reporter said that Republicans are worried that Cornyn will have little incentive to support Trump’s agenda for the rest of his term if he is defeated, like Bill Cassidy, who recently lost the election in Louisiana.
“The next six months are going to be very difficult for Trump. I think it’s not going to happen for him to get things done,” Renee Cross, dean of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, told Al Jazeera.
“The average voter isn’t watching these shows, or maybe the nightly news, but they’re seeing that oil prices are going up, supplies are going up, and we have this war that is not liked by either side,” Cross said, referring to the US-Israel war in Iran.
Texas is among the few states where Republicans are likely to lose major seats, along with Maine and North Carolina.
Who will the winners face in November?
Tuesday’s winner will face James Talarico, the 37-year-old state representative who defeated U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett to secure the Democratic nomination in a runoff in March. Talarico won 52 percent of the vote.
Talarico rose to prominence as a left-leaning voice with a cult following. He has been an outspoken critic of traditional Christianity, which he described in 2023 as “a cancer on our religion”.
Among his proposals are banning stock trading by members of Congress, establishing congressional term limits, and banning presidential pardons.
On the issue of affordability, he supports raising the federal minimum wage and increasing taxes on corporate purchases.
In foreign affairs, Talarico has supported the use of US power to stop human rights abuses against the Uighurs, Rohingya, and Sudanese, and to protect the rights of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression, although he has not said much.
He has been very clear about Israel. They help cut Israel’s military arsenal, while continuing to support Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system. He is also a diplomat.
Why is this competition different?
In hypothetical races, Talarico is either tied, within a margin of error, or leading all Republicans.
Another poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Talarico tied with Paxton, with Cornyn leading by one point, by a margin of error.
Some polls show more Democratic leaders. The University of Texas poll showed Talarico leading Paxton by eight points and Cornyn by seven points. Meanwhile, Texas Public Opinion Research had Talarico ahead of Cornyn by three points, and Paxton by five.
That marks a stark change from recent Texas Senate races, where Democrats have often been competitive but viewed as sloppy heading into Election Day.
The two most recent Senate races in Texas both involved Ted Cruz. In 2024, Cruz defeated Colin Allred by almost 9 points.
In 2018, Beto O’Rourke came closer than Democrats have in years to defeating the Republicans, but lost to Cruz by 2.6 points.
“People are less happy with the way the world is going than they were in 2018,” Cross said.
“This is a Republican state and a Republican seat, but it could also be a perfect storm for Democrats.”
Cornyn’s Senate seat has historically been uncontested, but the margin has narrowed in recent years.
In this race, Cross says independent voters could be a breather. A Texas Polling Project poll showed 36 percent of independents support Talarico over Cornyn, and 39 percent support him over Paxton, with a majority of independents undecided.
“In Texas, independents tend to skew Republican. So if you’re looking at a close race, that could be a big factor here,” Cross added.
“Our movement to take Texas back to working people rises above partisan politics – because the biggest fight in this country is not left to the right, it’s up and down,” Talarico’s campaign said in a post on X, which his campaign pointed to instead of words.
Neither the Paxton nor Cornyn campaigns responded to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.
