Why Yemen’s ‘no war, no peace’ may be ending | Articles of Controversy

Sanaa, Yemen Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the Houthi rebel group began to mobilize fighters in late June. Then, on July 3, the first publicly announced flight between Tehran and Sanaa in more than a decade landed in the Houthi-controlled Yemeni capital, creating new tensions. Fighting the next day between two sides in the west of Hodeidah Governorate in Yemen they killed manythe worst violence in four years.

And, on Monday, another flight test from Tehran to Sanaa took place the bombing of the runway by the Yemeni government, and the Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia.

Recommended Articles

list of things 3end of series

Yemen’s Defense Minister Taher al-Aqili said “the government’s patience has run out”. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the “disengagement phase” of the war in Yemen has ended.

The war in Yemen, which is now more than 10 years old, has been cold since the agreement was reached in 2022. But, with the Houthis’ main ally Iran fighting the US and bombing the Gulf, the conflict in the Middle East, the poorest country, could be about to dominate, bringing Yemen back to a major war.

Regional threats

The Houthis have accused Saudi Arabia of carrying out the attack on Sanaa airport, although the Yemeni government claims it was behind it.

Salah Ali Salah, a researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, described the latest statements from the Houthis as “shocking”, and said that the consequences of their actions will not be limited to the front in Yemen.

“The Houthis have publicly rejected ‘no war, no peace’ as they intensify their campaign to mobilize fighters and the general public,” Salah told Al Jazeera. “This speech was not intended to promote internal mobilization or to contain the growing social and economic problems that have grown during the long period of calm on the front line. Instead, it seems to be preparing the political and propaganda phase of another phase of the war that will have consequences in the region.”

The war between Iran and the US has highlighted the problems caused by regional conflicts in the security of the Gulf. And while Iran is attacking the Gulf from the east, the fear is that the Houthis will attack from the south – as they did before, during the war. the length of the war in Yemen.

“The Houthis have the geographical and military power that makes them one of the actors that can put pressure on the Gulf countries or interfere with the navigation on the Red Sea,” said Salah.

But this does not mean that it is certain, and there may be consequences for the Houthis. They have already come under heavy attack in the past few years from Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States, after launching protests against naval vessels in the Red Sea following the start of Israel’s deadly war on Gaza.

This attack has been to punish the Houthis, as well as the Yemenis in the northwestern areas of Yemen that are under their control. They have to justify any move to war, or to incite chaos from the people.

“According to this, the Houthis have resumed looking at Saudi Arabia (and) the closure (of Sanaa Airport) … can be interpreted as an attempt to reshape the local story that shows any future escalation with the Gulf as an escalation of the Yemeni conflict, instead of showing the regional conflict or the interests of the Houthis allied with the Houthis,” said Salazllah (Iran and Helena).

With continued mobilization and war-motivated talk, Salah said the Houthis are renewing their agenda, working to redefine “the next enemy” and prepare public opinion for a new escalation.

True to war?

Although the years since 2022 have brought stability to the Houthi-controlled areas, and the temporary opening of Sanaa International Airport to civilians, the lack of conflict with the government and the Saudi-led coalition have made it difficult for the Houthis to blame foreign parties for the financial problems the group oversees.

Meanwhile, the Yemeni government – with the support of Saudi Arabia – has managed to consolidate other authorities in the east and south of Yemen after its opponents within the anti-Houthi coalition, the separatist Southern Transitional Council, were defeated at the end of last year.

This has allowed the Yemeni government to target the Houthis. The start of the US war with Iran led to predictions of support from Washington for the government to advance against the Houthis in Yemen, but the desire of the Gulf to reduce the conflict and reduce the escalation with Iran caused this to decrease.

However, the Houthis and the Yemeni government may decide that a return to war is inevitable, and each side may prefer to start such a conflict at a time of their choosing, rather than being forced into it.

Years of diplomatic negotiations between the Houthis and the Yemeni government, as well as Saudi Arabia, have meant that the coming war cannot be resolved, said Yemeni expert Adel Dashela.

“If the Houthi movement continues to reject the peace proposal, the military option is still on the table, although its implementation is highly dependent on Saudi Arabia,” Dashela told Al Jazeera.

Four years after the agreement that stopped the war in Yemen, confidence has not been built. Actions are on the table, with the United Nations plan for the end of 2023 to include funding for all government payments, the end of blockades on roads and airports, and the resumption of oil exports – all of which led to a political solution that could end the war.

No deal was ever made. And now both sides seem to be stepping up their rhetoric, as well as their actions.

“Signs show that Riyadh is starting to tolerate the Houthis’ stand-up tactics, which makes a new war possible unless there is a political solution,” Dashela said.

The Yemeni government also wants to emphasize the Houthis’ links to Iran, while military spokesman Abdo Majali said the July 3 flight from Iran to Sanaa was evidence that Tehran continues to use the Houthis as “a tool to support the expansion of the region and weaken the Yemeni government”.

Meanwhile, another Houthi official, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, threatened Saudi Arabia comments made to Al Jazeera following the Sanaa airstrike. “Their willingness to attack Sanaa airport to prevent planes from landing or taking off gives Yemen the right to attack their airports and surround them like they did to us,” al-Bukhaiti said.

Frustration and deadlock

In Sanaa, the Houthis have been working to mobilize thousands of fighters for any upcoming battles.

Ali Mohammed, a member of the Houthis’ popular committees, said thousands of fighters are ready to take part if fighting breaks out.

“These fighters are true believers in the (Houthi) leadership, and they will follow any fighting instructions they receive,” Mohammed said.

The newly recruited fighters, he said, were trained to fight on the front lines, and “will be a backup (for the main Houthi forces)”.

Thousands of Yemenis have died in the country’s civil war, fighting and starvation and disease.

About 18.3 million people are facing severe food insecurity, placing Yemen among the most food insecure countries in the world, according to UN reports. More than 2.2 million children under the age of five are malnourished, and about 2.6 million children do not attend school. The country’s GDP per capita has fallen by 58 percent since the war began, and as a result, ordinary people on both sides of the continent are suffering.

The sense of limbo many Yemenis have felt in the last few years, and the failure of negotiations to end the war, has some kind of hope.

For Abdullah, a teacher at a public school in Sanaa, the identity of the winner of the debate does not matter.

“The side that will win the coming war must be responsible for improving the lives of the people, fixing the economic crisis and the stability of the country,” Abdullah told Al Jazeera. “It should be fast and decisive, ending with one winner.”