Why Starmer’s defense plan will come out with a £4.7bn headache next PM

When Haley resigned earlier this month, his partners said he had overstated money in what appeared to be “treasury fraud” related to his investment scheme.

Buried in that plan today were numbers that could give Sir Kieran’s successor as Prime Minister a headache.

It contains confirmation from the Treasury that only £10.3bn of the £15bn committed has been properly recognised.

The remaining £4.7bn is due in the next budget, in the autumn.

That is the task of Andy Burnham and whoever he chooses as Chancellor.

Today’s investment plan relies on £10.7bn of “defence efficiencies” by 2030, with little detail on how that might be achieved.

And defense is expected to be a key priority in the next spending review, which could mean further cuts in other parts of government.

This raises questions about Burnham’s priorities if he becomes prime minister next month, as is expected.

He is understood to have had constructive conversations with Haley about defense spending, but even some close to Burnham admit they know little about his philosophy on the topic.

As he outlined his vision for Downing Street yesterday, there was little talk of bombs and bullets.

Jarvis told BBC Newsnight that he had discussed the investment plan with Burnham but understood that he could not be briefed on some of the security issues and had not signed off in full.

Defense Secretary Burnham won’t confirm if he’s told he needs to find £4.7bn for the Defense Investment Plan if he becomes Prime Minister.

The most troubling moments for Jarvis came not from the interference of the opposition benches but his own, as almost every Labor MP said the money currently on offer did not go far enough.

This includes senior Labor supporters such as Defense Select Committee Chair Tan Dacey and Treasury Select Committee Chair Dame Meg Hillier.

A Burnham partner said today’s plan would face “another cost burden” with funding gaps.

Those around Burnham may be relieved Sir Keir has published this plan before he leaves office.

But it is clear that the defense spending negotiations that the outgoing prime minister had to deal with will remain one of the most difficult issues in his successor’s interior.