Why Lebanon could make or break the Iran-US deal | Israel attacks Lebanon News

Beirut, Lebanon – The memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran leaves no room for doubt, declaring “an immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all sides, including Lebanon,” between the two countries and their allies.

“The final agreement will guarantee the cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” the long-term agreement was signed on Wednesday.

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Yet Israel seems to have either not gotten the memo or is willfully ignoring it.

Israel’s attack on Lebanon has continued for several days since the signing of the MoU, bringing the death toll since Israel’s first attack and destruction on March 2 to 4,000. The deadly attack prompted Iran to suspend negotiations with the US scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.

The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have both called for Israel to withdraw from Lebanese territory, although the former has said that it should come through linking Lebanon with Iran’s talks, while the latter wants to negotiate directly with Israel.

“Lebanon is at the beginning of the agreement because the Iranians want to bring home that the regional integrity of Lebanon is important for the agreement, the success of the (MoU),” said Michael Young, Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center.

Israel to ‘torpedo’ the Iran-US deal

Israel and Iran with the support of Hezbollah have been fighting since October 2023, but Israel escalated the conflict twice – in September 2024 and March this year – bombing Lebanon and attacking its territories.

The March expansion came after Hezbollah launched its first airstrikes on Israel more than a year after the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and in response to more than 10,000 violations by Israel since the end of 2024.

Since then, Israel has killed at least 4,057 people in Lebanon and wounded more than 12,121. Israel has attacked medical professionals and journalists and destroyed many villages.

Although the US has tried to announce several sanctions in Lebanon, the reality on the ground has been different.

US President Donald Trump has said a lot in Lebanon, including that Israel should limit its operations there, but Israeli officials have repeatedly said that their ability to continue operations in Lebanon must be protected.

“Israel is fighting Hezbollah for too long, and too many people are being killed,” Trump said he said Tuesday at the G7 meeting in France. “And you don’t have to demolish buildings every time you want someone because there are many people in those buildings and not all of them are Hezbollah. I can tell you that.”

Trump also said that he was “not happy with the way Israel dealt with Lebanon and Hezbollah. They could have done the job sooner. This is going on forever.”

Analysts said they believe that the presence of Lebanon in the MoU means that Iran is very concerned about the situation there and the US, which also has good relations with the Lebanese government, may be ready to force Israel to stop its military activities in the country.

“The United States wants to end the conflict between Lebanon and Iran,” said David Wood, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst in Lebanon. “It can help Lebanon by insisting that Israel implement the June 3 ceasefire decision.”

“This approach will give Lebanon an opportunity to demonstrate that it can effectively control Lebanese soil and defend the country through non-violent means, unlike Hezbollah’s approach against Israel,” Wood added.

But the Israelis may have a different opinion.

Young said Israel will “try to torpedo” the MoU and negotiations between Iran and the US. “They don’t want these negotiations to go well, so their way of doing this is to continue the war in Lebanon,” he added.

According to Karim Safieddine, a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, there is no “political, technological, industrial, economic incentive for Israel to stop the war in Lebanon”.

What is Hezbollah’s mission?

Iran must also decide what to do if Israel refuses to stop attacking Lebanon and the US is unable or unwilling to pressure the Israeli government.

Safieddine said there are divisions within Iran, including its state apparatus, about how Israel’s aggression in Lebanon should end. After Israel’s renewed attack on Lebanon on Saturday despite the declaration of an end to the war, Iran also announced the closure of the economically important Strait of Hormuz.

With the MoU, many people in Lebanon hope that the Israeli war is imminent. But there are other issues that need to be resolved.

In a statement on Wednesday, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem praised the group’s commander.

“We … thank the Islamic Republic of Iran for connecting the Lebanese arena as an opposition group and people to the spirit of sacrifice that forced “Israel” to stop its atrocities”, he said.

Israel and Lebanon are expected to continue direct talks next week, and Disarmament of Hezbollah it is still a big issue. The Lebanese government has moved forward with attempts to disarm the group as early as 2025, but Israel’s second escalation in the war has halted this.

“Lebanon’s political leadership is also found in another agreement under the US-Iran MoU,” Wood said.

“On the one hand, Lebanon wants to take control of its future, including the path to a permanent end to the Israel-Hezbollah war.” On the other hand, it is difficult to criticize President (Joseph) Aoun for accepting Iran’s insistence to include an end to the war in Lebanon in the MoU, even though it has failed to end the war,” he added.

“Lebanon has little organization in dealing with the great conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, therefore, Beirut will need help from outside in the coming period.”