Who is driving negotiations in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and why? | | Story

Cairo, Egypt – A series of diplomatic meetings in Cairo involving Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea and the US high-ranking delegation show efforts to improve ways of dealing with security challenges in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

The talks come as Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions are reshaping regional politics, Red Sea shipping remains under pressure, and countries are reassessing past alliances and defense cooperation.

Few public figures have emerged from the discussion. According to officials, security in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region was at the center of the discussion.

This extensive explanation shows how different issues are considered, Ethiopia’s territorial expansion, maritime security and attractiveness competition, are closely related.

The importance of the Cairo talks is less about what was said publicly than about trying to coordinate talks between Egypt, the United States and other actors in the Horn of Africa at a time when regional uncertainty is growing.

Although the talks seem to have included different discussions instead of one unified field, they still showed a common interest in coordinating regional security measures, the stability of the Red Sea and the great competition of countries.

In Egypt, however, most of these discussions still begin with Ethiopia.

Egypt’s goal is to continue the Nile

The dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has dominated relations between Cairo and Addis Ababa for years. But Egyptian concerns now extend beyond water security.

Ethiopia’s quest for access to the sea, efforts to strengthen regional cooperation and a growing role in the Horn of Africa have become part of Cairo’s regional calculations.

Cairo has been viewing events in Ethiopia through the lens of national security. The Horn of Africa adds another dimension to this concern, especially as competition for ports, coasts and regional influence increases.

For the Egyptians, the Red Sea was no longer a shipping route. It has been an increase in security, as trade, sea routes and regional politics are increasingly intertwined.

What is happening there is not only important because of geography, but also because of the importance of international sea routes and the efficient operation of the Suez Canal.

Why Somalia is at the center of the discussion

Somalia’s importance in this equation goes beyond domestic problems.

Its location provides a convenient location near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and major waterways. But its role in the current conflict is also shaped by its dispute with Ethiopia over sovereignty and access to the sea.

Ethiopia’s quest for sea access has been one of the region’s most pressing issues. Addis Ababa sees greater access to the sea as an economic and strategic imperative, while Mogadishu has opposed what it sees as undermining Somalia’s national integrity.

The dispute has also changed diplomatic discourse across the region. Somalia’s concerns have brought Egypt and other regional powers closer to Ethiopia’s growing role.

For Cairo, ties with Mogadishu provide an opportunity to strengthen its presence in an area where security ties are being reassessed.

The role of Eritrea

Eritrea is adding another challenge to the regional scene.

With its Red Sea coast and a long, strained relationship with Ethiopia, Eritrea remains central to any discussion of regional security.

His interests don’t always line up with Egypt or Somalia, but his location gives him good weight.

For Cairo, maintaining relations with Eritrea and Somalia is part of efforts to preserve influence in a region where access, security and political cooperation are increasing.

Why Washington’s role is important

The participation of the US representative through the Cairo talks added an international dimension to the talks and emphasized that Washington continues to be interested in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.

After separate meetings in Cairo with Somali and Eritrean officials, the US President’s top adviser on Africa, Massad Boulos, said on X that he discussed with the Somali foreign minister “important issues of security and stability in the Horn of Africa”, including ways to promote regional stability and dialogue on domestic politics in Somalia.

After his meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Eritrea Osman Saleh, Boulos said that the two sides explored opportunities to strengthen cooperation in trade, economic development and security, and emphasized the need to “work together to resolve regional conflicts and promote lasting peace, stability, and development in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.”

For Washington, the Horn of Africa was linked to common interests: regional stability, the fight against terrorism and the security of one of the world’s busiest waterways. The Red Sea has become increasingly difficult to ignore as disruptions to its circulation and political tensions have drawn global attention.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Mubarak Aliyu, a political and security analyst who works in West Africa and the Sahel, said Egypt’s cooperation with Washington shows the realization that regional problems can no longer be solved separately.

“Egypt’s cooperation with the United States is an acknowledgment that the current crisis in the Horn of Africa is interconnected, which calls for dialogue that prevents deterrence, regional cooperation and long-term stability.”

Aliyu said the timing of the talks in Cairo shows that Egypt wants to establish a security system that is growing in the Horn of Africa rather than just reacting to what is happening around the country.

Whether Washington is trying to create a broader diplomatic plan or simply prevent another regional crisis remains one of the key questions emerging from the Cairo meetings.

The dam dispute is not resolved, but it no longer stands on its own

Despite its importance to Egypt’s foreign policy, there is no indication that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam controversy produced any new developments in Cairo’s negotiations.

This does not make the story any less important. In fact, it shows that Cairo and Ethiopia’s concerns are no longer on the Nile. The dam dispute is now accompanied by many questions about Ethiopia’s territorial integrity, maritime ambitions and relations with neighboring countries.

Sudan is an entire region

Although Sudan was not involved in the Cairo talks, what is happening there is still very important in Egypt’s regional security calculations.

The conflict in Sudan continues to improve the strategic position along the Red Sea and the southern border of Egypt, while its location makes it a key player in the development of power in the Horn of Africa and Northeast Africa.

There is no indication that Sudan was directly involved in the Cairo talks. Its importance lies in many aspects rather than just discussing recent events.

Cairo’s extensive inventory

The Cairo talks do not seem to indicate the establishment of a new regional bloc. Instead of signing an agreement, they are better understood as a means of communication between countries whose interests cross the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

Their value lies in what they reveal about environmental change. The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea are becoming more and more like a stable circle, where maritime access, political influence and security competition are becoming increasingly difficult to separate.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Tegha King, secretary general of the Universal Peace Federation (UPF) Ghana, acknowledged “Cairo’s efforts to bring the United States and other countries to dialogue in the Horn of Africa.”

However, he argued that lasting peace will require “a coordinated, AU-led approach that supports the freedom, security, and development aspirations of all Nile and Red Sea countries.”

For Aliyu, the talks in Cairo show Egypt’s determination not only to respond to the current situation in the region but also to develop an emerging security system around the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

But, he added, the success of the strategy will depend on whether the regional and international cooperation strengthens cooperation instead of creating new conflicts.

“The challenge is to ensure that external cooperation strengthens African-led stability rather than deepening regional conflicts.”