US ‘grave skepticism’ persists as Iran considers ceasefire deal | US-Israel War on Iran News

Tehran, Iran “The main point is not to trust America” ​​- this is how the head of the law, Abbas Moghtadaei, explained what is happening on television on Tuesday afternoon.

It came after the Iranian delegation, led by the Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, returned to Tehran from Qatar amid efforts to cooperate with the United States in ending the war that has lasted for almost three months in the country.

A few hours earlier, the Foreign Ministry accused Washington of “clearly violating” the ceasefire agreement reached on April 8 by attacking the southern province of Hormozgan on Monday night. It said the attacks confirmed the “grave suspicions” Iran had about the US.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Iran’s military shot down a US-made RQ-4 fighter jet, using a self-defense system developed in the country called Arash-e Kamangir – named after a hero in Persian mythology. Government video footage showed the wreckage of the crashed plane.

The US military has said it is striking Iranian weapons facilities and boats trying to lay “self-defense” sea mines, but IRGC officials have said they reserve the right to retaliate.

On Tuesday afternoon, an oil tanker reported an explosion and oil spill about 60 kilometers (about 111 miles) east of Oman’s capital, Muscat, according to British intelligence. Iranian officials have not commented on the incident.

The increase comes as the two sides are trying to finalize a Memorandum of Understanding (MoM) that could help increase traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been frozen since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28.

The deal will also give Iran access to its foreign currency that has been frozen due to US sanctions and provide access to its foreign currency. way of future cooperation on the nuclear program of this country.

Nicole Grajewski, an associate professor at Sciences Po’s Center for International Research, said many in Iran’s leadership appear to be concerned that the deal could only provide temporary employment, strategic advantage or political cover before the US and Israel launch another major attack on the country.

“For the agreement to be sold politically, Tehran must frame it not as military pressure but as stability that protects the red lines,” he told Al Jazeera.

“This means maintaining the opportunity to enrich for the time being, avoiding immediate commitments, receiving reasonable sanctions or economic support, and maintaining the measures to prevent the areas, especially outside the agreement.”

‘Conversation with the enemy is a complete loss’

From the Iranian politicians in the government to the most difficult military security forces, all have promised that the Islamic Republic will not accept a deal that is “surrender”.

President Masoud Pezeshkian told national television earlier this week that he wanted to reassure the international community “we don’t want nuclear weapons, we don’t want security in the region”.

But Majid Mousavi, head of the IRGC’s air force, wrote in a letter on X, referring to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: “As our martyr imam said, negotiating with the enemy is a complete loss.”

Mousavi said he would follow the orders of the new leader of the country, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, who said in a message to celebrate the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha on Tuesday, that “the countries and regions of the region will no longer be the shield of the American base”. He also predicted that in just 15 years Israel will no longer exist, just as his murdered father imagined.

Ali Abdollahi, the head of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command and a military commander, appeared for the first time on Monday to urge the Iranian military to make the “defeat” of the enemy a priority.

“Americans talk a lot and change their story in a minute. We have said many times that we will show on the battlefield what we can do,” he told state television on the sidelines of a ceremony in Tehran commemorating Iranian leaders killed in the war.

In his first public message as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, released on Monday, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who is also the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, promised, “there will be no going back”.

IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi has also said that he is ready to resume fighting with the US military if necessary.

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said decision-makers in Tehran were not only considering a ‘bad project’ but one that would force Iran to give up valuable leverage in the event of future conflicts.

“The hard-liners are particularly concerned about any talks related to Hormuz, the implementation of sanctions or the acceptance of nuclear weapons because they see coercion, especially maritime coercion, as the most important thing for Iran after the war,” he told Al Jazeera. That is why the debate within Tehran has shifted from ‘should we negotiate?’ What are we really going to give up? He told Al Jazeera.

For the deal to be successful, Iran’s leadership must believe that some sanctions can be more visible and swift, he added.

Iran will also want to maintain a deterrence mechanism and symbolic honor so as not to appear defeated, and ensure that the deal will prevent another war in the future.

But as it is – and there is not much about it – Vatanka said that the upcoming memorandum “is seen as a peace settlement and as a firefight designed to buy time, reduce military threats, reopen parts of Hormuz, and stop the most difficult nuclear questions in the future”. This means that doubt and uncertainty will continue.

Anxiety kills

Iranian media experts have suggested that Iranian officials may be killed if the military resumes.

“If the US, at any time during the current negotiations, gets our top leader, it will strike without considering its other interests or the consideration of mediators like Pakistan and Qatar,” Nima Akbarkhani, a liaison expert with the IRGC, said on state TV on Tuesday.

A government relations expert, Ali Samadzadeh, said the upcoming agreement between the US and Iran could be a “honey scheme” to attract leaders.

According to the US media, Khamenei, who has not been seen or heard in public since the start of the war, except for written messages said by him, is hiding in an unknown safe place where even many government officials do not have the opportunity to meet him. US officials say this has delayed negotiations.

Sciences Po’s Grajewski said that in the next few days, the biggest challenge for the Islamic Republic will be gaining internal approval. Hardline groups will scrutinize any approvals given to the US, even those made as part of a memorandum of understanding that leaves problems to be resolved in the future.

“So, the real outcome in the near future is probably temporary instability rather than a complete settlement,” he said.

“Whether it evolves into something more robust depends almost entirely on whether the nuclear talks are creating realistic strategies that both sides can live with.”