Trump says he will talk to Taiwan leader: Why this matters | South China Sea News

President Donald Trump has said twice, starting with his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, that he would speak with Taiwan President William Lai Ching-te.

This will be the first direct contact between the heads of state since the US stopped diplomatic recognition Taipei in Beijing in 1979. It remains committed, however, under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act support the defense of self-governing democracy.

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In a Foreign Ministry statement on Wednesday, Taiwan’s president responded to Trump’s comments, saying he would be “happy” to talk to him.

Taiwan is committed to maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait, he added, but “China is the one that disturbs peace and stability”. Beijing views Taiwan as part of China’s territory.

The statement comes as the White House considers a $14bn arms deal with Taiwan.

China’s Foreign Ministry responded that it “opposes exchanges” between the US and Taiwan, as well as US arms sales to the island.

Trump’s comments suggest he may be willing to break the law for years, which could upset Beijing, analysts say.

How will China respond?

Based on past events, Beijing will not be happy if Mr. Trump meets or talks with the President of Taiwan.

Al Jazeera’s Katrina Yu, from Beijing, said that when former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, her two-day visit sparked tensions between the two countries.

Soon after, China carried out military exercises in Taiwan and, Yu said, the relationship between China and the US “reached a rock bottom”, showing that “China wants to see any communication between Washington and Taipei”.

In 2016, shortly after winning his first election, President-elect Trump received a phone call from Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen.

Beijing launched a formal protest, accusing Trump of violating the “One China” principle when Washington recognized Beijing in Taipei. Chinese media warned that the call could damage relations.

The incident caused a “hoo-ha” in Beijing, Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, told Al Jazeera. He added that Trump may have forgotten the call and the “very negative” response from Beijing.

Trump “probably will be reminded by his staff… and probably won’t talk to President Lai”, he said.

After speaking with Lai, Beijing’s response “depends on how Donald Trump delivers,” Tsang said.

If Trump were to say that he had spoken to Lai, Beijing would “act very strongly”; however, if he claims to have spoken to Lai as Chinese leader Xi Jinping “asked me to do so”, it could provoke a response from Beijing.

Analysts say that implicit in his response is Beijing’s recognition that Trump is unreliable and unpredictable.

“Trump’s signature is to re-open existing problems; to break new ground or to cross red lines that are too difficult is enough for this course,” Wen-ti Sung, a non-resident fellow at the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera.

Will this end any excitement about Trump’s visit to Beijing?

Trump visited Beijing last week to meet with Xi along with a delegation of American business leaders, including the heads of Apple, Nvidia, BlackRock and Goldman Sachs.

Trump praised Xi, saying: “It is a privilege to be your friend, and the relationship between China and the USA will be better than ever”.

Trump left the meeting boasting of several productsbut the Chinese text never mentions such agreements. Trump has also been careful not to leave Taiwan, at one point ignoring a reporter’s question on the matter.

But experts say that if these ideas end because of his appearance in Taipei, it depends on how he will go, which he says, because of his unchanging talks, it would be difficult to predict.

If Trump calls Lai and announces that the US will “continue to support Taiwan and provide major weapons; all hell will break loose”, said Tsang.

However, he said, the fact that Trump had the idea to talk to Xi about whether the United States could sell arms to other countries was a victory for Beijing.

Any other US president “would have said it’s not an issue we can discuss”, he said.

What is the US commitment to Taiwan?

The US is Taiwan’s most important supplier of weapons. Trump announced a weapons of war worth more than $11bn last December, – the largest in history.

However, since his visit to Beijing, Mr. Trump has signaled several times that he may not support Taiwan independence.

“I’m not looking for someone to be independent. And, you know, we have to travel 9,500 kilometers to fight. I’m not looking for that. I want them to be cold. I want China to be down,” he told Fox News.

Taipei will not see Trump’s decision to speak with its leader as an attempt to reconcile with the island, Sung said.

“Trumpian negotiation can be very productive; think about him doing what he thinks is best, instead of playing a big, three-dimensional chess game.”

Taiwan will be affected by Trump’s uncertainty, Tsang said.

“He is not anti-Taiwan… but do you trust your future in the hands of Donald Trump? Even when he loves you, he can kill you,” he said.

Will the US-Taiwan arms deal end?

“I can do it. I can’t do it,” Trump told Fox News on Friday.

Since his visit to Beijing, he has said that it is a way to engage with China, as the US is trying to approve the new arms sales package.

The Lai government has insisted that US policy on Taiwan “will remain unchanged”.

“I think we will remain optimistic about buying weapons,” said Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo.