Tottenham are favorites for Premier League survival but do West Ham have the better fixture in the relegation shoot-out? | football news

West Ham and Tottenham are locked in a relegation battle ahead of two rounds of the Premier League final. Which side will survive?

The London rivals are separated by two points in 18th and 17th place respectively while Spurs could only draw with Leeds after West Ham’s defeat against Arsenal on Sunday.

With Nottingham Forest and Leeds ensuring their survival, either West Ham or Spurs are guaranteed to join depleted Wolves and Burnley in the Championship next season.

Their next games could be crucial, West Ham live on against Newcastle Sky Sports Live on Sunday, before Spurs make the short trip to Chelsea Sky Sports tuesday

Opta makes Spurs strong favourites

According to Opta’s predicted table, which factors in hundreds of thousands of data points and is based on 10,000 simulations, Spurs are strong favorites to survive at the expense of the Hammers.

Opta gives Spurs only a 19.54 per cent chance of relegation before the next game, compared to West Ham’s 80.46 per cent chance.

The chart below shows how those odds have changed over the course of the campaign At the start of the season, Spurs and West Ham were given a 13.44 percent and 21.73 percent chance of relegation respectively.

West Ham’s relegation chances rose to 89.64 per cent in January, following a nine-game winless run. At the time, Spurs were 13 points clear of the Hammers in the Premier League table, with a relegation chance of just 0.22 per cent.

Spurs, however, were in the early stages of a 15-game winless run at the time which saw their relegation prospects rise in February.

It went above West Ham for the first time in April but there was a big swing earlier this month, when Spurs’ form under Roberto Di Zarby began to pick up and West Ham suffered defeats against Brentford and Arsenal.

Opta has now given Spurs an ‘expected’ final points total of 40, leaving them well clear of West Ham’s expected total of 39, and is essentially predicting Spurs to draw both of their games, with the Hammers to win one and lose one.

But the Spurs do not have a tough game?

Both the teams are gearing up for the next tough tour.

But history suggests that St James’ Park is a much happier hunting ground for West Ham than Stamford Bridge.

The Hammers, coming off a 3-1 win over Newcastle at the London Stadium in November, have won two of their last four games at St James’ Park, including a 2-0 win last term. That’s more than Spurs have managed at Stamford Bridge in the entire Premier League era.

Incredibly, Spurs’ 3-1 win at Stamford Bridge in April 2018 is their only Premier League win in 33 attempts. Their three per cent win rate at Stamford Bridge is their lowest at any ground since the start of the Premier League era.

“I think Tottenham got a tougher game,” Jamie Carragher said Monday Night Football. “Newcastle away won’t be easy. But Chelsea away? We know the rivalry. Chelsea are absolutely desperate to beat Tottenham.”

Spurs, however, can take heart from Chelsea’s woeful form. They ended a six-game losing streak by struggling to draw 1-1 with Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday under interim boss Callum McFarlane but you have to go back to early March for their last win.

Sunday May 17 at 5:00pm

5:30pm kick off

Meanwhile, Newcastle had a similarly poor run, drawing 1-1 with Nottingham Forest before claiming a 3-1 win over Brighton. But Eddie Howe’s side have nothing left to play for bar pride this season, with Chelsea needing points to secure a European finish.

A positive for Spurs is that while they get extended rest ahead of the Chelsea game, the Blues have a potentially draining FA Cup final against Manchester City four days earlier.

Spurs will aim to capitalize on any possible Chelsea fatigue, especially in what looks to be a tougher final fixture than West Ham. De Zarby’s side host tenth-placed Everton, who, like Chelsea, can still fight for a European place, while the Hammers come up against Leeds.

Daniel Farke’s side are certainly safe from the drop, although that didn’t make it easy for them against Spurs on Monday. “Leeds played well,” said de Jarby Sky Sports. “We expect them to play like this against West Ham because that’s just how it is.”

Tuesday May 19 at 7:00pm

Kick off 8:15pm

For Spurs, with the Everton game in mind, there is also the thought of their poor home form. Spurs are without a win in 10 games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, dating back to a 2-0 win over Brentford in December. It is their longest winless home run since 1994.

Will the de Jarby effect win?

Spurs’ failure to beat Leeds leaves them tasked but they also have a two-point cushion over West Ham and a superior goal difference. Despite Monday’s draw, their performance continued to grow as the Hammers lost momentum.

While West Ham suffered back-to-back defeats for the first time since January, Spurs are on their longest unbeaten run since October, having lost none of their last four games under De Zerby.

The hiring of Italians made a difference. “What De Zarby has done has given them confidence, because everyone knows he is a top coach,” added Carragher. “That’s what the fans are clamoring for. They want a plan, not just with the ball, but without the ball.”

De Zerby certainly provided that. Spurs continued to misfire in attack but defensively they transformed. They have conceded just five goals in five games so far and a close look at the numbers highlights the extent of their improvement.

After being among the worst teams in the Premier League defensively before De Zerbi’s appointment, Spurs are now one of the best. They are actually allowing fewer expected goals and fewer shots on target than any other team since de Zerbi’s arrival.

Can that tenacity, and Antonin Kinski’s strong performance in goal, propel the Spurs forward? Their two-point cushion and superior goal difference means that two draws will be enough to keep them from the rest of the game. The odds are in their favor. But there may be more twists to come.