The numbers don’t lie.. Who has the keys to winning the World Cup?


Between the strength of France, the strength of Spain and the cunning of Argentina and England

Argentina, England, France and Spain are just two matches away from glory after overcoming all odds to finish in the top four of the World Cup.

As the final whistle of the tournament approaches, football fans’ eyes turn to two high-profile clashes that will decide the identity of the two sides in the final before knowing which team will rise to the podium and lift world football’s most expensive trophy.

Although the four teams have played six matches so far, a direct comparison between them requires some precision, especially as Argentina played an hour more extra time than France and Spain, and England an extra thirty minutes.

Therefore, relying on performance rates per 90 minutes gives a fairer picture of each team’s true level, whether from an attacking, defensive, physical or tactical perspective, according to the BBC.BBC:“.

France are leading in attack despite Argentina’s superiority in goals

France are leading in attack despite Argentina's superiority in goals

Argentina may seem to have the best offensive record in terms of goals scored, scoring 17 times, but aren’t the most dangerous when the numbers are analyzed more deeply.

After scoring the highest average goals per 90 minutes, France established itself as the tournament’s best attacking force by average. It also tied Spain for the number of shots and achieved the highest expected goals tally, reflecting the quality of the chances it created and its continued ability to threaten the opposition’s goal.

Argentina, on the other hand, were exceptionally efficient in front of goal as they managed to convert 18% of their attempts into goals, a high rate that reflects the quality of their last touch and great ability to capitalize on opportunities, which are among the reigning champions’ most prominent strengths.

As for Spain, they provided a completely different model as they created a large number of chances and had 110 shots, the same as France, but scored just 11 goals to the Roosters’ 16, a big difference that shows Spain suffer from a relatively poor performance in front of goal compared to the number of chances.

As for England, the numbers show that they create the fewest chances of the four teams, whether in terms of shots or quality, but they made up for it with remarkable attacking efficiency as they scored twice in one game, benefiting from the individual quality of their stars led by Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane.

The Spanish defense…the strongest fortress in the tournament

The Spanish defense...the strongest fortress in the tournament

If the French attack demands respect, the Spanish defense deserves praise as the best so far. Spain did not concede a single goal throughout the tournament until the quarter-final match against Belgium, which ended in victory, proving that they have a highly organized and disciplined defensive system.

Although France have conceded just two goals in six games, Spain’s defensive stability seems more evident, making the upcoming clash between the two teams one of the most intriguing matches of the tournament from a tactical perspective.

The most important question before the meeting will be: Will the French attacking force manage to penetrate the Spanish defense or will Luis de la Fuente’s men continue to impose their defensive dominance?

As for the second match between Argentina and England, it looks more open in attack, especially since the defense of both teams did not provide the same level as the defense of Spain or even France.

They have each conceded 6 goals so far and the numbers also show that England have allowed their opponents to create the most chances, while Argentina have been the least successful in turning chances away, making for a match full of excitement and scoring chances.

Physical excellence. Spain is the leader and Argentina is the footman

Physical excellence. Spain is the leader and Argentina is the footman

The overall numbers might suggest that Argentina are the most mobile team, covering 706.5 kilometers, but this number is directly related to the fact that they spent more time than their opponents.

When calculating the average distance covered per 90 minutes, the picture changes completely, with Argentina running the fewest of the four teams and also having the lowest rate of quick starts, meaning they are physically outmatched by their opponents in a normal game.

This is also reflected in their pressing style, as Argentina are the least aggressive in winning the ball back from the attacking third, while they rely more on defensive organisation, waiting and then launching quick attacks.

Spain, on the other hand, proved to be the most active and energetic, excelling at the pace of runs, quick starts and high pressing, reflecting Luis de la Fuente’s philosophy based on possession and recovering quickly after losing the ball.

Possession and transfer…excellent Spanish stamp

Possession and transfer...excellent Spanish stamp

Spain continued to play football based on complete control of the game, after averaging 66% possession, the highest not only among the four teams, but also among all teams participating in the World Cup.

Spain also share the best pass success rate with Argentina at 90.4%, a number that reflects the quality of the backs’ build-up and ability to hold the ball long. However, each team has a different style of using passes.

Argentina rely heavily on lethal passing, with Lionel Messi playing a major role as the Tango captain passed the ball to teammates in positions that allowed them to score 15 goals, the most of any player in the tournament so far. Reducing the threat of these passes is expected to be one of England’s most important defensive keys if they are to stop the reigning champions.

Cross balls…the most dangerous English weapon

Cross balls...the most dangerous English weapon

On the other hand, England has a completely different strength than its rivals. Thomas Tuchel’s side are the best of the four teams in terms of crosses in open play, as his players managed a successful pass to a team-mate once in every four attempts, a distinctive indicator that reflects the quality of movement in the penalty area.

Unsurprisingly, the English side topped the list of teams with the most headed goals with four goals and also recorded the most headers during the tournament with a total of 24 attempts.

The importance of this weapon is magnified given that Argentina have the worst aerial success of the remaining four teams, giving England a real opportunity to use high balls and make a difference in the box.

England also leads the way in success rate in bilateral clashes, albeit by a slight margin, which increases its chances of imposing its physical style in the upcoming clash.

Messi leads the creativity…and France bets on individual skills

Messi leads the creativity...and France bets on individual skills

Although Lionel Messi wasn’t the most successful dribbler at the tournament, with only two players ahead of him, he remains the main engine of the Argentine attack, whether through playmaking, decisive passing or penetrating defensive lines.

Argentina, on the other hand, does not rely too much on the individual dribbling of the rest of its players, but rather prefers team play and organized movements.

As for France, they rely more on the tremendous individual ability of their stars in the final third, as the front four pose the biggest threat thanks to their speed, skill and ability to outrun defenders one-on-one.

Therefore, the Spanish defense will have to face very difficult tests, given the persistence of the French to direct the ball towards the goal with individual runs and direct attacks.

After all, the numbers confirm that the four teams reached the semi-finals in different ways. France has the strongest attack, Spain is characterized by the best defensive system and the most unique style of play, while England excels in aerial balls and physical combat, while Argentina relies on experience, efficiency and the decisive touch in difficult times.

With the levels close and the strengths varied, all possibilities seem open ahead of the two semi-final encounters, so the only fact remains that the World Cup is in for an exceptional finish, and the team that can capitalize on its strengths and minimize its mistakes will be the closest to writing its name on the record as world champions.



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