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It has been almost nine months since the rebels blocked the fuel in the capital of Mali, Bamako. In late April, the conflict escalated. The Al-Qaeda group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), together with members of Tuareg separatist groups, launched an attack on the Malian army and its Russian allies, the African Corps (formerly Wagner), which. to be killed Mali’s Minister of Defense Sadio Camara.

The rebels seized military camps, also captured the largest northern city of Kidal, and strengthened the walls of Bamako. This latest outrage is part of the Tuareg’s rebellion in what the Tuareg people call Azawad, an area that includes the provinces of Timbuktu, Taoudenit, Kidal, and Gao, which is home to a large Tuareg population.

The current problem is aggravated by the weakness of the country of Mali following the coup d’état in 2021 and the intervention of foreign countries. Without strong efforts to address this crisis, instability could spread throughout the Sahel region.

Since the country declared independence from France in 1960, northern Mali has been in turmoil as the Tuareg people seek autonomy. Fourteen years ago, Tuareg groups allied with groups affiliated with al-Qaeda launched another attack. They managed to capture several cities in the north of Mali, and had it not been for the intervention of the French army in 2013, they could have marched on Bamako.

Two French operations led to the weakening of Tuareg groups and groups affiliated with al-Qaeda. This helped persuade them to participate in negotiations with the government, which ended with the signing of the Algiers agreement in 2015.

One of the most prominent clauses of the agreement was the decentralization of power in the Azawad region, which gave local leaders more power. Through this agreement, the Malian government secured Mali’s integrity by fulfilling promises such as advancing the development of the Azawad region, integrating the separatist forces into the military, and electing their political leaders.

The agreement contributed to stability in Mali and the Sahel region by containing the source of conflict and conflict. However, the peace did not last. A number of problems arose, the main of which was the failure of the government to follow through on its promises in implementing development projects in the north.

The situation worsened after the 2021 coup led by General Assimi Goita. France, Algeria, and members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) refused to accept the new officials in Bamako. As a result, in 2022, the military government expelled the French troops, and in 2024, they canceled the Treaty of Algiers. Later, instead of negotiations and negotiations, it adopted a military strategy to rule the North peacefully.

This strained Mali’s relations with Mauritania, Algeria, and France, with Bamako accusing them of providing support to rebels and meddling in internal affairs. As a result, Mali was weakened militarily and economically, while military and trade cooperation with its neighbors declined.

JNIM and separatist groups used this. They wanted to block their capital by attacking important transport routes that imported and exported a lot. They intercepted oil and diesel from Senegal and the Ivory Coast, and began attacking Moroccan trucks transporting food through Mauritania.

As in 2012, the cooperation between Tuareg groups and al-Qaeda organizations has been successful. It drove out the Malian army, seized large swaths of territory and operated freely near Bamako.

This time, foreign forces were not able to help the Malian army, as their Russian allies were forced to withdraw after the attack at the end of April. Meanwhile, Turkey has seen its involvement in Mali grow amid instability. In early May, following threats by the Malian military, Ankara signed several security agreements with the military government of Mali.

The danger here is that Maliya’s problem may not be limited to the political crisis between the government and separatist groups. It may also call for further intervention as regional and international conflicts move into Mali’s territory.

There is also the issue of alliances between the Azawadi movement and al-Qaeda affiliates, which could be a ticking time bomb. There are clear contradictions within this relationship, as the two sides have no agreement except the agreement to defeat the military regime in Bamako. This is why a future war in the north between Azawadi groups and Muslim groups is possible.

The crisis in Mali has regional consequences. The ongoing humanitarian crisis could lead to large-scale migration to Europe and North America. Continued instability in the north would open up more space for the growth of terrorist movements, which could expand their attacks across the region. Therefore, the crisis in Mali can be a direct threat to neighboring countries, regions, and the world.

As things stand now, neither side can win this war. Therefore, conflict resolution can only be achieved through dialogue and negotiation. Bamako should seriously consider the grievances of the Tuareg people in the north and their interests.

It is in cooperation with the neighboring countries and the regional authorities to bring the parties to the negotiating table and find ways to solve these problems peacefully. At the risk of regional spillover, there is no time to waste.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect Al Jazeera’s influence.