Tesla’s robotaxi promises are at odds with reality

You are calling yesterdayTesla CEO Elon Musk did his best to paint a positive picture of the company’s robotaxi program. New cities are being added, more miles are being driven, and more people are experiencing unmanned Tesla cars.

But Musk’s bravery seems to have no call, since sometimes the trillionaire wants to upset the expectations of the future of the program.

“We’re moving as fast as we can in developing Robotaxi,” Musk said, “trying to make sure we don’t hurt anyone and we don’t even run over an animal.”

Musk’s insistence that Tesla’s robotaxi project is growing is at odds with the current situation: Mileage is basically flatthe number of cars seems to be decreasing, and although the team of Tesla executives said of “zero known incidents,” the security of the company’s technology seems to be an open question.

Tesla did a great job of getting things right. Ashok Elluswamy, CEO of the AI ​​company, said Tesla’s unmanned robots have driven 380,000 miles through six cities in two different countries. And according to Musk, this is increasing at a rate of 10 percent per week in terms of miles driven.

Elluswamy couldn’t hold back on the Tesla race that uses lidar sensors, as opposed to the Tesla-0nly camera approach. “Historically, the so-called experts have said that you need lidar, radar, HD maps, and the entire kitchen sink to drive effectively,” he said. “Here we show that this is not true. You can be autonomous, comfortable and cheap with only cameras. This record should be a big confirmation of the whole Tesla’s AI strategy.”

But even the numbers Tesla said seem to convey the message. Waymo, which uses lidar and radar sensors as redundant sensors in addition to cameras, typically drives four million miles per week. Tesla’s total mileage, a year in its robotaxi program, is less than 10 percent of that number. This is starting to unsettle investors, with BNP Paribas Equity Research chief analyst James Picariello calling it an “alarming decline” in a research note to clients.

Tesla uses both autonomous and autonomous vehicles as part of its fleet, but that ratio appears to be improving. According to Crowdsourced Robotaxi Trackerthe company currently has 16 unattended vehicles in Austin, four in Dallas, and one in Houston. On the earnings call, Elluswamy was asked what’s stopping Tesla from flooding into the Austin area, where it first introduced its robotaxis a year ago, instead of dropping a few cars into new cities.

“The reason we’ve been expanding in different cities, rather than just doubling down on one city, is that we want to make sure our scale is high,” Ellwamy said. “It’s common. We just want to, you know, we’re all going to show ourselves and other people that it’s working in a lot of different cities without a lot of effort in each city.”

Another obstacle is government regulations. New Jersey is considering the bill which would prevent robotaxis without multiple sensors, such as radar and lidar. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco announced this on the call, saying that “there seems to be some regulatory change in the government, perhaps in terms of sensor requirements.” To which Tesla’s vice president of automotive design Lars Morvay admitted “obviously the New Jersey situation, you know, is a little disappointing.”

Restricted areas could limit the potential market for Tesla’s robotaxis, which would be at odds with the company’s message of universal service that can drive anywhere, no matter what.

Security is another obstacle. Musk’s comment to avoid chasing anyone else’s pet was seen as a shrewd move by Waymo, which has hit and killed several animals in the past few years. But Tesla’s safety record is a mixed bag. We don’t have a lot of information on Tesla’s robotaxi accidents because the company likes to update the important details.

According to Robotaxi Tracker, the company’s fleet has had about 18 accidents, 56 percent of which were the fault of another driver. And Tesla’s Full Self-Driving is being investigated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, with the possibility of a future recall. Tesla’s robotaxis are currently running version 15 of FSD, compared to version 14.3.6 for its customer vehicles.

Tesla is asking investors, sponsors, and customers to look at these weaknesses as they continue to push the message that the robotaxi program is growing. But the company continues to do things that contradict that message.