Sooner than expected? Quantum error correction promised in 2028.

Quantum computer news usually starts at the end of the year, when companies try to prove that they are hitting benchmarks in time. However, there have been some exciting announcements as summer begins this year, from advancements to exciting promises. As we did at the beginning of this monthArs has some very important announcements.

These include the promise of efficient, error-corrected computing in 2028, details of a modified ion processor, and the story that claims of quantum supremacy have been partially offset by advances in traditional algorithms.

2028 is too soon

Most people in the field expect that basic computers are still five to 10 years away. Although there may be useful algorithms that can be run on existing error-prone hardware, almost all of the interesting problems that quantum computing can be applied to require some form of error correction enabled by connecting a small number of hardware qubits together called a logical qubit. Logical qubits also include mass storage along with neighboring qubits that can be measured to determine when and how errors occur.

To make useful calculations, you need very clear qubits – about 100 to provide a complete model of a simple chemical reaction, to tens of thousands to use complex algorithms such as those that can disrupt encryption. (Hence, any definition of “useful” comes with the important caveat “to whom?”) This means that, at the very least, we’ll need thousands of high-quality features to build a useful error-correction system.

Currently, existing qubit technologies provide a high quality or large number of qubits. There are roads from here to where we want to be, but they need several years of progress. Therefore, the estimate is five to 10 years.