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Russia’s attempt at ride through Belaruswhere it has given away large amounts of nuclear weapons and engaged in highly publicized joint military exercises, it comes as its underground war in Ukraine is winding down.
Prime Minister of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskii he told the Militarnyi magazine that Ukraine has taken that path, because the Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory now outweigh the Russian threats on Ukrainian territory.
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The Ukrainian army has been able to do this because the Russian army needs soldiers to do the dirty work, he said.
“Since the beginning of 2026, the total losses of the enemy have already exceeded 141,500 people, of which more than 83,000 will not change,” Syrskii wrote on his channel.
The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service believes that Russia cannot recover from losses of more than 1,000 people per day, and this year they are recruiting at the rate of 800-930 people per day, suffering from a significant decrease in military strength.
In response, it said that 40 Russian regions increased registration bonuses between 30 and 100 percent.
In order to strengthen the Russian military, Putin has changed the citizenship process for Russian-speaking people in the Transnistrian region of Moldova.
“Russia needs new troops like this,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said he had received information that Russia was trying to raise 100,000 additional troops.
“We believe that at the moment, such a possibility in Russia does not exist,” he said.
On Friday, Russia blamed Ukraine for the deadly attacks in the Luhansk region it controls. At the time of writing, four people are said to have been killed.
Ukraine’s war on Russian oil and weapons
Russia’s economy is collapsing, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service said, after spending $78.4bn in the first four months of the year against a budget of $50.5bn for the year.
“Oil was the main cause of the problem. Revenue from hydrocarbons fell by 38.3 percent,” it said.
Ukraine has stepped up its long-running campaign against Russian refineries and oil exporters this year, preventing Moscow from reaping the benefits of higher oil prices.
Ukraine has hit oil pumping stations, storage facilities and pipelines, forcing Russia to cut production by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April 2026, compared to April 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
This means that although Russian exports rose by 250,000bpd, the decline in production reduces Russia’s ability to take advantage of the Gulf war.
Ukraine has also increased its threats against Russia’s refining industry this year.
The Reuters news agency reported that “drone attacks in Ukraine took out about 700,000 bpd of refining capacity between January and May across 16 refineries, some of which were hit multiple times, compared to eight refineries in 2025.”
The affected refineries account for a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity, Reuters reported.
This could lead to an oil blockade in Russia, and led to Russia’s decision to freeze oil imports from April to July. The IEA said Russian oil exports fell sharply by 340,000bpd in the first month of the ban.
“Given our limited resources, in order to deal with a much larger enemy, we are trying to move from ‘army war’ to an asymmetric approach,” Syrskii told the European Union’s Defense Committee. “Our main tasks are to prevent the enemy from advancing and fighting, to attack the rear of the Russians, including inside their sector.”
Ukraine attacked several military and industrial facilities in a 100km (62-mile) radius around Moscow on May 17, in what appeared to be a response to Russia’s large-scale attacks on Kyiv on May 13 and 14, which killed 52 people.
Targets included the Angstrem semiconductor plant, which produces microelectronics for high-precision devices, the Solnechnogorsk oil refinery, which serves military purposes, and the Moscow Refinery.
Satellite images later showed four storage tanks destroyed in Solnechnogorsk.
“The long Ukrainian sanctions have reached Moscow’s territory, and we are telling the Russian people clearly: Their country must end its war,” Zelenskyy said.
Ukraine also hit the Ryazan refinery on May 15, the Azot chemical plant in Stavropol Krai on May 16, the Yaroslavl refinery on May 19, the Lukoil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod on May 21 and the Sizran refinery on May 22.
On May 16, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine had also struck military equipment, including helicopter gunships, submarines, an armored ship and anti-aircraft missiles.
Ukraine warns Belarus of ‘consequences’ if it joins the war
Russia forced Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to open a new tactic in his war against Ukraine by launching an attack on Kyiv, Ukraine said.
According to Zelenskyy, Russia will launch a simultaneous attack from the vicinity of Bryansk against Chernihiv, in an attempt to renew Moscow’s opening strategy.
“We know that there has been some contact between the Russians and Alexander Lukashenko in order to persuade him to join Russia’s brutal regime,” Zelenskyy said on May 15.
Zelenskyy said that the northern border of Ukraine is being strengthened, and that Ukraine has “the ability to respond”.
“They need to understand then: Their results will follow and they will be important,” he said.
Russia engaged in a nuclear-armed deployment to Belarus this week, with 64,000 personnel, more than 200 missiles, 140 aircraft, 73 naval vessels and 13 ships.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the two countries would launch missiles and missiles as part of the games.
Russia has halted its new Oreshnik nuclear reactor in Belarus since last year, and has threatened to attack European military facilities with missiles. Some of the weapons that could be fitted to the Iskander-M missiles were moved to Belarus as part of the exercise, Moscow said.
The previously unspecified reason was NATO’s increased involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“Due to the increasing number of conflicts, including nuclear provocations, the dangers on the front are increasing, and the risk of conflict between NATO and our country, which can be dangerous,” warned Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Ryabkov in an interview with the TASS news agency.
