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Washington, DC – A few months ago, it would have been impossible for a prominent politician in the United States – let alone a Republican senator – to admit that Iran has the right to defend itself.
But on Wednesday, that’s exactly what Senator Roger Marshall did. “I think they have to defend themselves,” he told CNN.
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Experts say such words are a sign of a change in opinion in the US. This week, after President Donald Trump acceptance Memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran, some Republicans seem to have tempered their anger.
However, many groups support Israel and politicians he is starting to fight the deal, setting up a potential conflict with the White House and those who want to end the US-Israel war with Iran.
“Donald Trump can sell anything in his strong position,” said Matthew Duss, vice president at the Center for International Policy, a non-profit research and advocacy organization.
“If he says the Iran war is going well one day and then reverses himself and says we’re signing an agreement to end the war the next day, there’s a large part of his base that will agree with him, and he’s going to be angry at anyone who disagrees publicly.”
Despite this, Mr. Duss stressed that pro-Israel groups and politicians remain “deeply disappointed” by the memorial.
An unpopular war
The goals of the union have steadily declined since then Last ThursdayWhen Trump first mocked that the “final terms” of the ceasefire agreement “have been agreed by all parties”.
It was only on Wednesday that the 14 points of the memorandum became known.
But the gradual release has partially shielded the memo from hawkish criticism. Another is that Republicans don’t like to cross Trump, who has a history of fighting them and overcome opponents in the party.
Even some of Israel’s most outspoken apostates have refused to take on Trump since the announcement.
Senator Lindsey Graham, and an enthusiastic cheerleader war, it said the memorandum “will be beneficial” to the US.
“Whether the United States can reach a formal, definitive agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear weapons program and other issues remains to be seen, but I see little difficulty in trying,” Graham said in a tweet on Wednesday.
Overall, Republicans have been more tolerant of the first deal than the 2015 nuclear deal signed by former US President Barack Obama, a Democrat.
Unlike the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the current memorandums seek to end hostilities. The US and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28 without direct provocation.
Public opinion has shown disapproval of the US for many argumentwhich has also fueled the issue of diplomacy in some conservative circles.
The war saw Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, sending global oil prices soaring. In the US, it has rising inflation and economic uncertainty, factors that could hamper Republican hopes in the midterm elections in the coming years.
“We’ve seen the cost of war. We’ve seen that war is not an easy option. We’ve seen that it has huge economic consequences for the American people, and that Americans are against it,” said Ryan Costello, director of policy at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), a non-profit advocacy organization.
Within the memorandum
The memo, which was signed on Wednesday, calls for the region to stop the war, and orders the fighting to stop not only in Iran but also in Lebanon.
The deal will see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US will lift its blockade of the country. Tehran reiterated its longstanding commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons.
In exchange for that guarantee, Iran will receive economic relief. The US wants to lift sanctions on Iran’s energy exports, which will increase global supply and help lower oil prices.
Iran will also see the release of billions of dollars of its assets that have been frozen by sanctions, although the memorandum does not provide a specific time frame or a way to translate the money.
It promises, however, a $300bn investment and an infrastructure fund in Iran.
The preliminary agreement does not resolve the serious issue of whether Iran’s enriched uranium program will be allowed to continue. This is planned for future negotiations, which will take place in the next 60 days.
He does not say a single word about Tehran’s missile program, one of the reasons for the US-Israeli war with the country.
Limiting Iran’s missile capabilities has been a key goal for Israel for years, but Tehran has denied any concessions.
On Wednesday, Trump said “missiles are not a problem” and suggested that the problem could be resolved as part of regional security talks.
“What am I going to do? I’m going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles, but they (Iran) can’t have them? It doesn’t work like that,” he told reporters.
But in the past, Trump has advocated limiting Iran’s military capabilities. Costello said Trump’s sudden change is confusing.
“President Trump last week was sounding like John Bolton,” he said, referring to the former US president who is known to advocate intervention.
“So, this week, he sounds like John Mearsheimer“, Costello added, referring to the real political scientist.
Ted Cruz opposes the deal
Costello explained that, while some Republicans support Trump’s pivot, others are weighing whether to oppose the president’s talks with Iran.
“There are a lot of people who are trying to see how they can be free to argue with this, not a memorandum of understanding, but everything that is being considered from there, which is very difficult to resolve the conflict with Iran,” he told Al Jazeera.
Senator Ted Cruz, who called the deal “ill-advised”, falls into that camp.
“History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to kill us is not a good idea. I think the president is getting very poor advice on this deal,” Cruz told The Hill earlier this week.
Pro-Israel commentators, such as Mark Levin of Fox News, have described the memorandum as “submission to Iran and Hezbollah”.
Levin, who has praised Trump in recent months to start a warHe strongly criticized the president of the United States regarding his comments on Iran’s missiles.
“Iran’s missiles have always been a big issue, and the administration has talked about the government building a defense around its nuclear and missile facilities,” Levin wrote in an article on X television.
“And, no, if other countries have ballistic missiles, Iran should not.” Iran is a terrorist regime that has killed our people, how many times do we have to be reminded of this.”
He later criticized the US Vice President JD Vancewho has been the main leader of the US and Iran.
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a think-tank that has been advocating war on Iran, also rejected the deal, saying the memorandum guarantees the survival of the Iranian regime and allows it to be rebuilt after the US-Israel war.
“Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran gives the terrorist regime one victory it could not achieve in war.” Refunds,” two FDD representatives wrote in a column for the New York Post.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) also released a lengthy statement detailing what it sees as failings in the memorandum, including sanctions relief and the lack of sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missiles and its support for regional groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas.
The pro-Israel lobby group voice still praised Trump for bombing Iran.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, America, working with Israel, has dismantled Iran’s leadership, nuclear program, and weapons, creating an opportunity for cooperation,” AIPAC said.
“The first Memorandum of Understanding reached with Iran raises important questions.”
‘Dangerous’ powers
Duss said some Israel hawks are cautious in their opposition to the deal and pointed the finger at Vance instead of Trump, but are still unhappy about ending the war.
“He wanted the war to continue. He has a doctrine of military power that essentially, if the military is not working, what you have to do is use military power,” Duss said. “It’s a stupid worldview, but that’s their view.”
So, will pro-Israel rhetoric in Washington derail negotiations with Iran?
Duss said that while military responsibility is unknown, the influence of pro-Israel groups cannot be ruled out.
“The pro-Israel hawks, obviously, are concentrated in Washington,” he told Al Jazeera.
“They have a lot of money to support their think tanks and their advocacy organizations. very small and, I would say, reducing support among the masses, their ability to advance their views in Washington’s policy debate is still precarious. “
For his part, Costello warned that Israel’s allies could try to prevent negotiations with Iran by using a long-term strategy, even if they lose control of the war.
“There has been a lot of opposition to the deal, even if they failed to destroy the deal in the first place,” he told Al Jazeera.
Costello highlighted how pro-Israel groups attacked the JCPOA, saying the agreement “died with 1,000 wounds”. Trump eventually ended the deal in 2018.
“The FDD, the neoconservatives, the foreign Republican arms made Obama take action,” he said. “And in the end, he was able to find a president willing to disclose.”
