Pep Guardiola to leave Man City to change English football from top to bottom – Between the Lines | football news

Pep Guardiola is expected to leave Manchester City at the end of the season, having had a transformative impact on English football during a decade-long stay.

The 55-year-old will depart as the second most decorated manager in Premier League history, with his total of six titles to date, leaving him behind only former Manchester United boss Sir Alex Ferguson.

Stylistically, though, no manager in the modern era can claim to have had a greater impact than Guardiola. Between the Lines Explains how his influence shaped the English game as we know it today.

Immediate effect of PEP

Guardiola’s first game in charge of Manchester City, a 2–1 win over Sunderland at the Etihad Stadium in August 2016 thanks to a Paddy McNair own goal, was not particularly memorable. But even then there was evidence of change.

Joe Hart was benched, deemed a poor fit for Guardiola’s approach. Full-backs Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna had a fancy display of flipping in midfield. City’s 77.7 per cent share of possession was their fourth highest on record in a Premier League game.

“This is the first step,” the new manager said afterwards. It certainly showed its purpose. Guardiola would certainly go trophyless for the first time in his career that season. But the shift to his preferred, possession-dominated approach was immediate.

From City’s average of 55 per cent possession and 487 short passes during Manuel Pellegrini’s final campaign in charge, Guardiola had 65 per cent possession and 584 short passes in his first game as he set about overhauling their style.

A few costly personal errors cast doubt on his commitment to playing from the back. Guardiola fueled his critics when he said “I don’t train tackles” after a 4–2 defeat to eventual champions Leicester in December of that season.

But in their first Premier League title-winning campaign in 2017/18, Manchester City’s formation issues were resolved, including goalkeeper Ederson, whose outstanding ball-playing ability proved transformative.

With Ederson able to orchestrate Guardiola’s build-up play with the level of composers like Manuel Neuer at Bayern Munich and Victor Valdes at Barcelona, ​​Manchester City’s number of passes, sequences of 10 or more passes and build-up attacks increased.

Its excellent distribution over long distances also provides an invaluable method of bypassing opposing pressure structures.

City were able to prove the effectiveness of Guardiola’s approach beyond all doubt in that second season, winning the Premier League title with a record-breaking score of 100 points and 106 goals in a strong testament to their manager’s approach.

Premier League clubs followed his example

Some Premier League teams, such as Brendan Rodgers’ Swansea and Mauricio Pochettino’s Southampton and Spurs teams, began implementing Guardiola-inspired short-passing policies before joining Manchester City in the Premier League.

But the practice of playing from behind started in later years. With his appointment, Premier League teams began to increase the average number of passes per game in their own half, which had previously decreased.

According to the interactive graphic above, the same trend can be seen for passing sequences of 10 or more passes and on average for build-up attacks, showing how Premier League teams gradually embraced Guardiola’s style of play before moving towards the directness of the competition over the last two seasons.

The effect trickles down to EFL

Guardiola’s influence soon became evident in the English football pyramid as well as in the Premier League.

This trend was slow to materialise, but it was not long before teams in the Championship saw their average number of passes in their own half increase, with League One and League Two beginning to follow in the direction of travel to the Premier League.

Following City’s treble-winning campaign in 2022/23, 2023/24 saw the highest numbers in all four categories simultaneously, showing the extent of Guardiola’s influence in the English game.

The changing role of the goalkeeper

Guardiola’s change to the way he plays affects players in all positions. None other than goalkeepers, who were effectively required to act as extra outfield players, were able to play passes under pressure in and around their penalty box.

Hart was a two-time title winner with almost 350 Manchester City appearances behind him. But he lacked the technical security to play for Guardiola. His removal for Claudio Bravo, and subsequently Ederson, highlighted his shifting priorities at the position.

Under Guardiola, the number of successful goalkeeping passes in Manchester City’s halves has tripled in the space of two seasons, from seven per game under Pellegrini, 19 in Guardiola’s first campaign in charge and 21 per game in his second. In 2023/24 their average rose to a high of 27 per game.

Widespread adoption was not immediate. From 2015/16 to 2017/18 there was a slight increase in goalkeeper passes in the defensive half across the rest of the Premier League. But after that the average rises steadily as clubs look for ball-playing goalkeepers.

The Premier League average for goalkeeper passes in the defensive half in the same season as Manchester City peaked at 19 per game in 2023/24, a 140 per cent increase from an average of eight per game in 2016/17. The interactive graphic above shows that goalkeeper passing accuracy rates follow a similar trajectory.

Hart was the first high-profile casualty but more were to come, including Manchester United’s David de Gea, who felt unable to play from the back in Guardiola’s popular style, eventually seeing him replaced by Andre Onana, whose distribution was cited as a key factor in his appeal.

pressing matter

Guardiola also had a huge influence on how England teams set up the ball. Coordinated, man-to-man pressing high up the pitch was key to his philosophy and became important up and down the Premier League as a means of disrupting build-up play.

By 2019/20, Manchester City were averaging just under 10 high turnovers per game, down from under eight in Pellegrini’s final season. Again, the Premier League average is trending in the same direction.

A high press requires a high line to limit the space available to the opposition between the lines. Manchester City immediately started playing up the pitch under Guardiola, as shown by their opening distance, which measures how far a team’s passing sequence starts from their own goal on average.

The graphic above shows the Premier League’s steady increase in starting distance and high turnover during Guardiola’s tenure as clubs took pressure to counter the growing popularity of playing from the back, before a subsequent shift that shifted the tactical landscape again.

Embrace directness and physicality

Guardiola has always seen himself as a pragmatist rather than an idealist. “My strategy adapts to the qualities of my players,” he said on his unveiling as Manchester City manager in 2016.

That realism came to the fore in the last years of his reign. Manchester City remain a primarily possession-oriented team capable of using short passing combinations to play against the opposition. But they’ve also developed other ways to beat the man-to-man marking system, diversifying their threats.

The signing of Erling Haaland marked a dramatic shift from the false nine model Guardiola had previously favored and gave Manchester City an invaluable outlet for direct play and quick breaks as the Premier League’s physicality and sophistication of opposing man-to-man marking systems began to increase.

City have averaged more possession and fewer passing sequences than any previous season under Guardiola this term. Meanwhile, their number for the quick attack has risen as Guardiola emphasizes transition over complex build-up play and one-v-one specialists like Antoine Semeneu and Jeremy Doku over pedestrians.

There’s no doubt that Guardiola’s arrival at Manchester City prompted a wider shift in the way he played in England, but the recent move away from these principles seems reactionary. “You can complain, or you have to adapt,” as Guardiola said recently.

Guardiola’s willingness to adapt may encourage others to do the same, but it’s hard to be sure. What is certain, as he brings down the curtain on his Manchester City tenure, is that his arrival inspired a change like no other manager in English football.