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Israel and Lebanon have it they agreed on a new framework agreement after four days of marathon talks in Washington, DC, led by the United States, trying to resolve the conflict that has lasted for months.
Israel has occupied about 20 percent of southern Lebanon and killed more than 4,000 people since the war began on March 2. The last war ended in a ceasefire in November 2024, but Israel has carried out almost daily attacks and refused to end its occupation in violation of the agreement.
The new deal, however, does not specifically require Israeli troops to withdraw from its positions and is linked to the disarmament of Hezbollah – which has been repeatedly rejected by the Iranian-backed militia.
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem on Saturday rejected the deal, calling it “absurd”. Hezbollah has ordered Israel to stop its operations.
Hezbollah supporters flooded the streets of the capital Beirut on Friday evening to protest the deal.
So, what new alliance, which does not include Hezbollah, and can bring peace to Lebanon?
What is in the Israel-Lebanon agreement?
After the three signings in Washington, the US State Department released the text of the agreement, which talks about a “step-by-step process” that will see the Lebanese army restore “proper control over all parts of Lebanon, pending the definitive disarmament of non-governmental groups” – a clear explanation of Hezbollah.
The agreement does not allow Israel to withdraw from a fifth of the occupied Lebanese territory. Instead, the plan states that Israel will “gradually redeploy” from Lebanon, providing two “airports” where the Lebanese army will “gradually assume full security responsibility”.
“One (the pilot) is south of the Litani River and outside the security zone altogether, and the other is north of Litani – a small area in the expanded security zone that we conquered in the last two weeks, and which (the Israeli army) says is not needed,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said later.
Once this is achieved, “Lebanese civilians will be able to return to these areas under the guidance of the Lebanese authorities,” the plan says. More than 1.2 million people have been forcibly displaced.
Israel says that the return of southern Lebanon to the control of the Lebanese government “ends any need for (Israeli military) action or presence in Lebanon” and “(declared) that it has no national interest in Lebanon”.
The Lebanese government has signed that it rejects “claims by any government or non-government entity to use force on its behalf without a clear authorization,” considering that such attacks are “illegal” and “against the interests of the Lebanese nation”.
What have the people involved in the conflict done about the agreement?
Israel
Netanyahu released a video shortly after announcing the deal, stressing that the deal would allow Israeli forces to remain in Lebanon.
“We will maintain (the safe haven) until Hezbollah disarms and as long as there is a threat to the State of Israel,” Netanyahu said.
It is a small, temporary victory for Netanyahu, who has been criticized by the US and Iran after he left Israel to sign the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which also puts an end to the war in Lebanon.
Lebanon
President Joseph Aoun thanked Trump and other regional mediators after the signing of the tripartite agreement, which he called “the first step towards restoring the sovereignty of Lebanon”.
In the statement of the Lebanese president, Aoun said that this process “represents the beginning of the process of destroying (Lebanese citizens) sacrifices, so that they can return to their fully liberated country”.
His words did little to quell the tensions in the capital, where Hezbollah supporters took to the streets, burning tires and blocking the road to the airport.
Hezbollah
Although the military is not a party to the agreement, and has never been at the negotiating table, its stance and actions will determine where the conflict will lie in the future.
Hezbollah’s leader on Saturday criticized proposals to agree to Israel’s withdrawal and disarm the group. “Combining the withdrawal of Israel with the deployment of military equipment in Lebanon is a dangerous idea that crosses all red lines,” he said.
“The Washington agreement is shameful, shameful and self-serving,” he said.
He added that the proposed agreement should be replaced by the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that was signed on June 15.
Earlier, Hassan Fadlallah, Hezbollah’s representative in the parliament, said that the Lebanese authorities will not be able to enforce the agreement unless, with the help of the US, they “go to civil war”.
Speaking on television before the deal was signed, Qassem said Hezbollah would keep its weapons close, ready to fight Israel in Lebanon, if Lebanon failed to do so.
The Iran-US MOU called for the “integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon” – similar terms to those used in the agreement.
United States
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a well-known figure in Washington for Israel and Lebanon, announced an “immediate” donation of $100m from the US to help people in cooperation with the UN.
At the signing ceremony at the State Department in Washington, Rubio appeared to acknowledge the shortcomings of the agreement, calling it “the beginning of the beginning.”
“There is a lot of work ahead, we are not in any way underestimating the difficulty of the work ahead, but we understand its importance, how important it is, and we are honored to be a part of coordinating this,” he said.
Two previous ceasefire agreements brokered by Washington failed to halt the fighting in Lebanon, as did the Islamabad MOU, signed by President Trump and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian, earlier this month.
Iran
Although Tehran has not acted on the deal, its media has criticized the deal.
The Fars news agency noted that the agreement is essentially a US concession allowing Israel to violate the first clause of the Islamabad MOU, which mandated an end to hostilities on all borders, including Lebanon.
Is the Israel-Lebanon agreement against the Islamabad MOU?
Analysts point to two contradictions between the first agreement signed by the US and Iran, and the latest agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
In short, the Islamabad MOU mandates the cessation of hostilities in all areas, including Lebanon, without conditions – while the Israeli-Lebanon agreement includes the elimination of Hezbollah’s weapons.
Israel has not followed any ceasefire agreements, including the old ones, and continues to attack Lebanese areas. On Saturday, the Lebanese news agency NNA reported that the intersection of the Farah amusement park in Nabatieh al-Fawqa was targeted by an Israeli threat.
Israel has killed at least 4,192 people in Lebanon since the war with Iran began four months ago.
Secondly, the Islamabad MOU does not refer to or mention any armed groups supported by Iran among the clauses written to advance the ceasefire talks.
Tahani Mustafa, who visited the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera that Israel and Washington “will use the fact that Hezbollah refuses to disarm and blame Hezbollah for disrupting the whole process”.
Mustafa added that Israel “reaffirmed that it is acting in good faith, which does not give confidence to Hezbollah to disarm or surrender in the way it is wanted.”
Washington is also not to blame, he said, arguing that “American negotiators are working undercover to try to destroy Lebanon and Iran.”
“This is just what the Israelis and the Americans have tried to cover up and confuse because of their failure,” he told Al Jazeera.
Will the deal work if Hezbollah rejects it?
This is not the first time that Hezbollah has taken weapons off the table – and the challenges remain. The 2024 deal also called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, but it would not be possible as Israel continued to attack Lebanon and refused to withdraw its troops in violation of the deal.
Alon Pinkas, former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York, says he has “high doubts and doubts” that this will be possible because the agreement is between Israel and Lebanon and the US; the issue here is Hezbollah.”
The connection of Iran to the conflict in Lebanon and the tightening of the agreement with the US, Pinkas says, “confuses the situation (because) Netanyahu said that (Israel) will not agree to any agreement with Iran and that Israel will defend itself in Lebanon”.
Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem said the deal is “dangerous” to Hezbollah’s existence.
“Without Hezbollah’s permission, this will not happen,” Hashem said. “This will lead to another conflict. The Lebanese government cannot afford to enforce this agreement.
