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This one should definitely live up to the billing.
Spain vs. Argentina, World Cup Final, Sunday at 8 p.m
Spain, 5/4 pre-tournament favorites with Sky Bet, take on 13/5 defending champions Argentina in a clash in the Big Apple.
Argentina are 5/4 to win back-to-back world titles while Spain are 4/6 to win a second World Cup.
It’s an interesting clash of styles. Spain’s blend of patience, possession and precision is perfectly suited to knockout football. As France found out in the semi-finals.
Argentina, meanwhile, is like a cockroach you can’t kill. Their amazing ability to recover makes them a dangerous opponent but it could be a game for them in this tournament.
It’s a mental and physical journey, which can take its toll against the occupying Spanish. Remember, Argentina went to extra time vs. Cape Verde and Switzerland while late salvos against Egypt and England derailed ways to win football matches.
Compare that to Spain, who won all four knockout matches in 90 minutes and barely celebrated victory. It has been very professional.
Argentina may be on the verge of completely blowing a gasket when it comes to energy levels.
Meanwhile Spain also have an extra day’s rest which past trends show is crucial coming into a match like this. Since Euro 2004, 15 of the 20 finals across men’s and women’s major tournament finals have been won by those who have had an extra day’s rest.
Spain are not a team to beat but if Argentina fall behind early I think they could fall apart based on this fatigue factor. The makeup of the game reminded me of Inter Milan vs PSG in the Champions League final where PSG were the new, emotionally stable team and wiped the floor with the Italians.
If Spain win, they are more likely to win by a bigger scoreline than the odds based on Argentina’s fatigue factor.
The way to back them in this manner is to back Spain at -1 handicap at 100/30 with Sky Bet. This means any win by two or more goals for Spain will be the winner.
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Spain or Argentina have a chance to show up with a World Cup ring on Sunday.
Jones Knows Best Bet: Spain -1 handicap vs Argentina (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Especially against England, in the first half, Argentina caught the eye with continuous fouling. And this game should go the same way with Argentina trying to spoil the game instead of settling for Spain.
But it could be a frenzy of fouls either way as Spain are very adept at fouling and slowing the game down where needed.
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Tom Brady asked Lionel Messi to mirror the viral Yamal photo.
Spain knows how to play ugly when needed.
Across their 14 games in major tournaments, they committed 12.5 fouls per 90, so their base foul ratio is high and it becomes a great betting angle when you throw the opposition into the mix.
In their last 25 competitive games, Argentina’s opponents average 14 fouls in 90. They know how to give it – but they’re also happy to take it.
Referee Slavko Vincic is also a great referee for fouls. He has the highest average for fouls in the Champions League over the last five seasons – in fact, it’s the second-highest ratio (23.6 per game) of any referee who has refereed more than 15 games.
So I think in a game of this magnitude both teams expect their average number of fouls. With the BuildABet function, we can predict Spain to commit 13 or more fouls with Argentina committing 13 or more fouls which awakens an 11/10 shot to attack.
