Could the upcoming Israeli election be the end of Netanyahu’s politics? | | Benjamin Netanyahu News

Israel’s upcoming elections could decide the succession of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing serious problems over his handling of the war in the region and corruption charges.

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is considered one of the greatest survivors of Israeli politics. But with the upcoming elections, expected in October, he now faces his biggest challenge that could see his nearly 40-year political career come to an end.

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In the background is a stream of political events, after Netanyahu he is said to have urged the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to join him in the war against Iran on February 28, causing Tehran to launch its attack on Israel, the Gulf countries and send to the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel is at war with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia in the north. This has seen Netanyahu caught between US pressure to stop the military invasion of Lebanon and Israelis who want to continue fighting Iran and its proxies.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu is also facing public anger over his failure to hold a trial independent public inquiry into his government’s failures before and after the Hamas-led invasion of southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

In the wake of the devastating war in Gaza, Israel has faced international scrutiny over its actions, a decline in other countries and strong criticism from the US political establishment.

All the while, Netanyahu is still facing a lot of corruption cases starting in 2019, and if found guilty of this, he could be jailed.

Ultimately, Israel’s election comes at a critical time for Netanyahu and the country.

“It looks like (Netanyahu) could be in trouble,” political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg told Al Jazeera. “The US-Iran deal was not well received, and for the public, it is not clear what is going on in Lebanon.

“No one knows whether it will be a ceasefire, return home or anything, and the media here is very doubtful. Finally, there is the issue of the US. Israelis for a long time used to think that they could operate independently, but recent events have shown that to be a myth.”

A rock or hard place

Israelis are well aware of the importance of US aid to their national security. Now, Israel and the US seem to have very different views on the future of the war in Lebanon, with Trump eager to reduce the fighting so that peace with Iran holds and exports can return to normal in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has made sure that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire agreement with the US, so the new Israeli attack on southern Lebanon threatens stability. memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington.

Netanyahu is blamed by doves and wolves in Israel for the war in Lebanon, and activists are encouraging him to continue the war and defeat Hezbollah, a difficult task due to the opposition given by the army and the pressure of the US. Some know that defying Trump’s agenda will further strain US-Israeli relations.

Israel continues to live illegally fifth of Lebanon, and the agreement signed by Beirut in Washington on Friday makes their military presence in the country uncertain. Nearly three-quarters of Israelis say they support Israel’s continued presence in Lebanon, while more than one in ten oppose it, a recent poll shows.

Gadi Eisenkot – a former Israeli army chief and Netanyahu’s staunch political opponent – blamed the US-Israeli current situation for Netanyahu’s failure to explain to Washington his country’s approach to Lebanon.

“We failed to capitalize on the gains we made in the war and realized that security should not be tolerated,” Eisenkot told a Hebrew-language podcast about the halted attack on Israel. “Even the idea that Israel needs Washington’s approval to launch a strike against Lebanon is untenable.”

“Many critics are dismissing him from the right by saying that he has his own military or magical strategies for what is happening in Lebanon,” former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy said, “(and) all the while Netanyahu will play for time and try to undermine the relationship between the US and Iran.”

US relations

Under the rules of memorandum of understanding which was signed by Iran and the US on June 18, both sides and their allies are committed to “ending military operations in all directions, including in Lebanon”. Perhaps most strongly against Netanyahu, it says that both countries guarantee “Lebanon’s integrity and sovereignty”.

Despite this, Israel has publicly refused to withdraw from Lebanese territory and continues to attack it, with around 4,230 people killed and 12,179 wounded in the latest fighting since March 2.. Meanwhile, the northern towns of Israel are still under the fire of Hezbollah’s rockets and drones, the Lebanese army is not defeated.

“Netanyahu promised the people of northern Israel a future that he could not fulfill,” political analyst Ori Goldberg said.

“They promised them in the morning when they will wake up, look out their window and they will never see an Arab again, but I am not sure that people really believe that, or think that it can happen. People are tired, they want some kind of culture, whatever it is.

This window for Israel to continue operating in Lebanon may be short, however. According to media reports, Trump is getting fed up with Netanyahu’s actions in Lebanon and elsewhere, describing the Israeli prime minister as “crazy” in one phone call.

On June 7, Trump told The Financial Times that Netanyahu should follow Washington’s agreement to end the war with Iran, insisting, “I call all the shots.

Levy, a former adviser to the Israeli government, said that although Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu have held seven meetings in the first 13 months of the US presidency, they have not had one since they fought in Iran together on February 28, 2026.

“This will worry Netanyahu. Right now, he probably wants to have another meeting… he needs to think about what he can do to get the US president back in the elections,” Levy told Al Jazeera.

“At the end of the day, Netanyahu is looking at the minute and avoiding the hour; time is tight.”