Championship play-off final: Hull City have defied facts and logic this season as they are one win away from the Premier League. football news

Amidst the drama of ‘Spygate’, it is worth remembering that City are also in the play-off final of this Championship. They were at it this whole time.

The Tigers have also had a sensational story in this championship promotion run. This time last year they were one match away from relegation to League One. A year later – and they’re a game away from the Premier League.

They went from surviving the Championship on goal difference last season to becoming the first sixth-placed side to reach the play-off final since 2019.

And a closer look at Hull’s season shows that this team is defying logic, not just recent history.

If matches were determined by expected goals (xG), a dataset at the heart of the modern game, it would tell a different story of the current season.

Hull, according to the data, should finish second-down this term. The relegation they faced last season should have happened. Instead, they are close to promotion.

The numbers are staggering. Hull should have actually picked them 13 fewer points – and scored around 16 goals.

Why do these numbers exist? Well usually, you put it down to a strong defensive structure or an impressive goalkeeper. Except they don’t. They are actually one of the most leaked teams in the Championship.

Hull conceded 66 goals in the regular season. That’s seven more than Oxford United who were relegated. Only three teams in the bottom half of the table – Leicester, QPR and Wednesday – have conceded more goals than Hull, who have also conceded the second highest number of shots on target in the division.

And for the 16 extra goals Hull should have conceded, their first-choice goalkeeper Ivor Pandu was responsible for stopping nearly five goals. His save percentage of 69.2 per cent is not even among the top 10 Championship goalkeepers this season.

Instead, Hull benefited from several big pieces of luck at the back. Hull has a long highlight reel of missed chances this season.

Hull’s 2-0 win over play-off rivals Wrexham in December. Kiefer Moore missed two golden chances to equalize which totaled about 0.9 xG. But Hull kept a clean sheet that day.

In a 1–1 draw with Oxford United in April, Hull almost conceded in stoppage time but Mark Harris converted a close-range chance on the hour. In a 1-0 win over West Brom, the Baggies missed an open goal to take the lead as Isaac Price was on fire.

Championship top scorer Jan Vipotnik also conceded an own goal in a 2-1 loss to Swansea Tigers in January. The same happened to Norwich’s Josh Sargent who missed a sitter in the 0-0 draw away to Hull in November. Instead, the Tigers won 2-0.

Overall, Hull have statistically had the best luck in the Championship this season in terms of opponents wasted.

This season, opponents have failed to convert 10 chances in which they had at least a 50 per cent chance to score – the most let-offs of any team in the division.

Of those 10 chances, they had a 70 percent chance to score on four of them — double that of the next best team on the list.

But of course, it’s not just luck that has propelled Hull to the Premier League, there’s also plenty of skill at the other end.

Despite recent opponents squandering their chances, the Tigers have the best shot conversion rate in the division. And they have Ollie McBurney and Joe Gelhart to thank for that firepower.

With 17 and 15 league goals to their name respectively, McBurini and Gelhard are two of the league’s most accurate strikers.

They are first and second in the Championship for shots on target – although other forwards in the top 10 in that category have managed more shots.

“I think one of the things we pride ourselves on is being clinical and being ruthless when we have the opportunity,” McBurney said. Sky Sports.

“One thing we’ve got guys on the side that create good opportunities for us. I think a lot of the positions we can get ourselves into are going to be a lot more rounded.

“People like to talk about data and stuff, but the points are the only data that matters to us and we have to run on it.”

But then again, luck came to Hull’s aid on the final day when a dubious offside call was linked to McBurnie’s goal to take them into the play-offs at Wrexham’s expense.

According to PGMO, McBurney was on the side by centimeters – but it was another example of a fine margin going the Tigers’ way when it could so easily have gone the other way.

There is another theory as to why Hull is denying the data. The statistical aspect of the game is used to help predict, prepare and plan certain outcomes. But the Tigers, led by Sergej Zakirovic, have proved unpredictable this season.

“He’s a winner, that’s the best thing I can say about him,” McBurney added. “He’ll win by any means necessary. If that means changing the game after 15, 20 minutes because something isn’t working, he’s not stubborn like a lot of managers – it’s not his way or the highway.

“If he recognizes in a game that changing to a back four or a back five is going to affect us, he does it straight away with ruthlessness. That’s one of the reasons we’ve been so successful this season.”

Much has been made of Hal’s role in the drama ‘Spygate’ – especially when it comes to preparing for the game.

It has been claimed that the spying story has been unfair on Hall – as they have had to spend this period preparing to face two teams, while Middlesbrough have spent this week doing tactical analysis on just one club.

But that unpredictability gives Zakirovic a trump card. The Tigers could easily have a completely different tactical plan coming off two playoff semifinals.

Quite simply, they are a group worth spying on.

“We have a difficulty preparing for it,” McBurney added. “We don’t set up the same way after two matches in a row. We’ll change mid-game, it’s going to be a tough team to prepare for.

“I think from that point of view it’s a testament to the manager and his staff that they’re not stubborn and they’ll do anything to help us.”

So whether you consider Hal lucky or skilled, it doesn’t really matter. They still have a chance either way of promotion to the Premier League.

Watch Middlesbrough v Hull City in the Championship play-off final this Saturday, live on Sky Sports from 2.30pm, kick-off 3.30pm