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Andy Burnhamwho will become the prime minister of the United Kingdom on Monday, is facing difficulties as the seventh leader of the country in ten years.
Burnham was widely supported as Labor leader on Friday after current Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned last month.
It has been a whirlwind month for the former mayor of Greater Manchester, with his vision for the country and his cabinet still unclear.
“This has gone faster than he thought. It’s only been four weeks since he won the elections. I don’t think he knows all the answers; he doesn’t have time to think,” Sunder Katwala, head of the British Future think tank, told Al Jazeera.
Experts say the incoming Prime Minister will inherit an economy that has not grown well in two decades and a difficult environment. They also have to deal with a significant drop in Labour’s popularity, with the party being trailed by the right-wing Reform UK in the polls for 18 months.
“Burnham has very little money to work with,” said Anand Menon, UK director of Changing Europe.
New money should be raised through taxation rather than borrowing, although there may be a lot of “speculative money” linked to a clear purpose, such as security bonds, Menon said.
“If you make it clear what these things are, the markets will be willing. But money is difficult,” he said.
Manchester model
The government spent 110 billion British pounds ($148bn). interest rate in 2025-2026 alone, about eight percent of total government revenue. The rental is over higher more than planned for this year, and taxes are expected to reach their highest level since World War II by the end of the decade.
Gareth Dale, associate professor of Social and Political Sciences at Brunel University, points to Burnham’s record in Manchester, including the city’s high-cost buses, as evidence that “necessary change does not always have to come at a great cost”.
Whether this develops nationally will depend on its willingness to meet the bond markets.
“What Burnham did in Manchester would be difficult to do nationally,” warned Menon. “They need to steer clear of the middle to show they know there’s a world outside of London and it’s not just Manchester.”
Menon doubts that money management alone can change people’s minds. He says that life has gone down and jobs have decreased since 2008 so “people don’t just want to listen to what you say, they want to see a change in their lives”.
Burnham’s in-tray is marred by a diplomatic row that began days before he took office. Total government nationalized British Steel’s Scunthorpe works, a year after overseeing the waste plant when Chinese owner Jingye Group said it plans to close it.
Jingye has vowed to pursue “full compensation through legitimate means,” as China’s Ministry of Commerce accused London of undermining the confidence of Chinese investors.
It leaves Burnham in charge of a strained relationship with China from day one, after Starmer has worked hard to repair relations between the two countries.
Beyond the limit
Menon says most of what makes up the Prime Minister’s wealth is outside Britain’s borders.
“Sometimes what makes politics successful and unsuccessful is out of your hands,” he said. He cited the war in Ukraine, Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic as reminders that the “open middle class economy” has powers that cannot be controlled.
This extends to Washington, where personal chemistry with US President Donald Trump will be important “for a while, until he leaves the people”, said Menon.
Dependence on the US for defense and technology precludes a dramatic renewal of British-US relations.
Menon hopes the European Union’s relationship will have less interest than Starmer has, predicting that Burnham will be “very popular” at home.
This could still be tested by Gaza, where Burnham apologized for the actions of the previous government. Menon cautions that turning words into policy “depends a lot on context”.
“He’s made some suggestions that he’s not going to help Israel bow down any more than Starmer was, but if that goes beyond the administration, we’ll have to wait and see,” Menon said.
He also questioned whether Burnham would risk a fallout with Washington over US bases in Britain, which could be used, indirectly, in the US-Israel war on Iran.
Safety first
Reports suggest that Burnham is likely to put security ahead of public spending, which may also impress others in his party.
“They will probably prioritize military spending over health… while calling for a ‘net zero’ program,” warned Dale, as Burnham is expected to allow oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
“And him voted to make the asylum system more cruel. If they implement policies in these ways, it will create a wind to the right, and perhaps accelerate the shift of voters from Labor to the Greens,” said Dale.
Burnham has moved from Labour’s Blairite wing to the soft left, but he “commands a lot of support among Labor MPs” and “crosses the spectrum”, he said.
But this agreement masks a significant erosion: Labour’s vote dropped from 12.9 million in 2017 to 9.7 million under Starmer.
Support for the centre-left is “dwindling in affluent, disaffected areas, while the Greens are now appealing to disaffected left-wing voters”, Dale said.
The political divide
This erosion is related to the deep division in the country which Katwala says no government can prevent.
“I don’t think it is enough to say that we want to talk about work and power sharing and then we don’t talk about identity, migration, race,” says Katwala.
He says that justice should be considered as a universal thing instead of just relating to certain groups of people.
“Whether it’s anti-Semitism, Islamophobia or racism, these are issues for everyone in this community. It’s not just for a few people to find a way to challenge the discrimination they face,” said Katwala.
“People who hate Muslims are those who know very few Muslims and live far away.
Menon sees less openness to right-wing issues popularized by the Reform UK party.
Labor entered government in 2024 with 33 percent of the vote against Reform’s 14 percent, a margin that collapsed after joining the right-wing party and George Cottrell, convicted of robbery.
Recent polls put Reform at between 24-26 per cent and Labor close behind, a big change from polling earlier this year.
The results of the third round of elections also show that there is a strong consensus against reform and an intelligent vote, which should boost Labour.
“While 30 percent of people are ready to vote, about 70 percent are ready to do anything to prevent them from being elected,” Menon said.
Whether that happens, he said, depends on how Burnham reacts to the state’s problems.
“It’s a very different game when things go wrong, and if he ends up being a lucky boss, then Reform will destroy itself,” Menon said.
