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Watson’s instinct is to let his uncertainty show. For him, caution is not negligence. It’s the need for authenticity.
Rahmstorff offers a different lesson from the same uncertainty. Considers risk low enough to argue but serious enough to require action.
“We won’t have certainty before it’s too late,” Rahmstorff said. “So we have to act on our uncertainty.”
Science does not provide definitive answers. It presents probabilities, caveats, caveats, and debates among experts weighing the same clue.
But they agree on what causes the danger.
The AMOC is being stressed by the warming of the planet. The more greenhouse gases humans emit, the greater the concern.
Cutting emissions does not eliminate all uncertainty. It is not guaranteed that the scientists of the Atlantic Ocean hope.
But it reduces the pressure on a system that no society can push too far.
In the waters of the North Atlantic, the floats continue to dive, drift, and drift—measuring a circulation that’s still moving, still mysterious, and still surprising.
Whether the AMOC is simply weakening or is being pushed into an emergency, remains unresolved.
But the most reliable answer is already clear.
Top image credit: Getty Images
Graphics by Erwan Rivault