2026 World Cup: Joachim Clement – Why defiant ‘guru’ says Dutch will win World Cup

For Clement, a self-described “worrier” who has lived in the UK for 10 years, the research was never about protecting anyone from heartbreak or winning big on a bet.

Instead, he hopes to demonstrate the folly of trying to predict the outcome.

“This started as an exercise to show the world economists who think they can predict things they have no clue about,” Clement said.

“And now it’s become a practice that if you’re lucky enough people think you’re a guru.”

After his original prediction came true when his native Germany won the 2014 World Cup, Clement thinks running the numbers again in 2018 will prove to be a blowout.

But he predicted correctly in 2018 against France – and then again in 2022 against Argentina.

“Because I was right three times in a row, people now think this model is invincible and obviously I have to be right next time,” he said.

It is true that the success of the World Cup is partly due to the well-known “strategic” factors, such as national population, wealth, climate and FIFA world rankings.

But Clement urges readers of the four-year forecast – which grows in popularity with each successful forecast – to take its content with a grain of salt, as such factors only tell part of the story.

“It’s another 50% chance,” he added.

“Every match – especially when these top-quality teams, who are so similar in skill and quality, play each other – really depends on the form of the day, the ref call, the feeling of luck in the post and getting the ball in.”

“Such things are completely unknown.”

As the race approaches, Clement’s model offers a welcome change from his daily routine: “It’s something that makes me feel good, especially in 2026 when there are so many crises, wars and things going on and it gives the readers a good feeling and a little bit of distraction from all the bad things going on in the world.”

But with each accurate forecast, expectations weigh on Clement, who works as a strategist at investment bank Panmur Liberm.

In his office, Clement asked local economists, for example, how? The Dutch midfielder of Tottenham Xavi Simeon has an ACL injury Will it affect the model?

So despite the many denials surrounding the credibility of his prediction, Clement is bullish on the start of the tournament in June.

“I have many colleagues who are selling some money on the Netherlands in response to my publishing this memo,” he said.

“And if the Netherlands are eliminated from the World Cup, I think I will have to work from home the next day.”