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A lot of heat will being one of the biggest challenges for players and fans during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. According to the World Weather Attribution (WWA) analysis, about 25 percent of the tournament’s 104 matches could be played in temperatures that exceed safe limits. The study shows that the chances of experiencing these conditions are almost twice as high as in the 1994 race held in the United States.
The projections were made using a statistic designed to calculate the probability of each game being played in a hot environment. To assess the risk of body temperature in the areas where they were treated, the scientists used the global temperature index, known as WBGT. This indicator provides a more accurate measurement of the temperature of the human body, because it does not include the ambient temperature, but variables such as humidity, sunlight, and wind speed.
The analysis individually examined all the cities in the United States, Mexico, and Canada that will host the 2026 World Cup. To do this, it also took into account local factors, including the altitude, high humidity, regional climate, and urban characteristics of each location.
The researchers analyzed daily WBGT data for the period between June 11 and July 19, the days leading up to the competition. He then compared these values with the safety limits set by FIFPro, the international football players’ union.
The organization has set a WBGT index of 26° Celsius (78.8° Fahrenheit) as the threshold at which additional cooling and heating measures must be implemented to protect players. A temperature of 28° C (82.4° F) is considered high risk, a ceiling above which the organization recommends delaying or stopping matches to prevent a potential accident.
Based on these parameters, the study determined that one in four games could be played in the first risk, with at least five games being played in conditions equal to or greater than 82°F on the WBGT index.
The report He warns that Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Houston present the most alarming events. The findings show that these cities have a return period of only one year for events reaching 82.4° Fahrenheit WBGT. In other words, there is a high probability that these difficult conditions will occur again almost every year on the days of the World Cup.
The same phenomenon at 78.8 ° Fahrenheit WBGT is also observed in the US cities of Atlanta, Boston, and New York, and in the Mexican city of Monterrey.
The study emphasizes that the increase in these accidents is closely related to the increase in global temperature that has been recorded in recent decades. In terms of matches held in 82.4°F, the chance to attend has doubled since 1994 in cities such as Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, Monterrey, Toronto, and Vancouver, all of which are hosting matches in this World Cup.
Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency in Spain, explained to SMC Spain that, since 1994, global temperatures have increased between 0.5 and 0.7 degrees Celsius. “It is a number that may not seem very high, but it represents almost half of the heat that has occurred in the last year and a half. Also, since the mid-1990s, when the last World Cup was held in the United States, the effects of climate change have increased worldwide, especially heat waves,” del Campo told SMC Spain.
2026 World Cup To Be Played In Extreme Heat
The WWA report also includes other recent research that warns of severe weather conditions predicted for the World Cup. By the end of 2024, study printed in the journal Scientific Reports warned that 10 of the 16 stadiums are at “high” risk of heatstroke, and two of them could particularly affect players and attendees.
According to the study, the stadiums most at risk of overheating are Arlington and Houston, both in Texas, and BBVA Stadium in Monterrey.
