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Islamabad, Pakistan – A wooden shelf behind him, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran, which aimed to expand their standoff by creating a path to long-term peace.
Sharif then picked up a document for the cameras. That was June 17, the high point of the Pakistan-led interim exercise that lasted several weeks, culminating in an MoU signed by Sharif as a mediator.
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Less than four weeks later, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, in the last few days, issued two statements expressing “deep concern” about the renewed hostilities between the US-Iran, and the MoU Islamabad helped to pull together the appearance of chaos.
On Monday morning, the US launched the latest threats and Iranwhich responded by launching missiles and drones in many Gulf and Arab countries that it criticized for having US military equipment.
A few hours later, the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Esmaeil Baghaei, told reporters that the allies, including Pakistan, Qatar and Oman, are still engaged and continue their efforts, as he warned that Iran will continue to respond to what it sees as non-compliance with the US agreement.
So far, these efforts have failed to reduce the conflict, although Pakistan continues to spread diplomatic issues.
On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar spoke by phone with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchitelling him that dialogue and negotiations remained “the only possible way” to solve the problem.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also spoke to the President of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian On Friday, he warned that the “hard-earned” peace gains were at risk, while Dar held a phone call on Saturday with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.
For many experts, one question, above all, is now focused on Pakistan and other allies such as Qatar: With the great mistrust between the US and Iran continuing to grow after the new war, can Islamabad or any other capital bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table?
Repeated damage
The renewed hostilities for the third time since the US-Iran ceasefire on April 8 appear to have collapsed.
A few days later the agreement was reached, the end of the first phase of Islamabad speaks led the US to block Iranian naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The US and Iran both attacked the ships in the following days.
Then, after the MoU is signed June 17Iran has attacked several ships it says are passing through the Strait of Hormuz without permission, prompting further escalation by Washington.
But they are from Iran tank crash last week seems to have raised the stakes to new heights.
The US attack on Iran since then has had a major impact 10 sectionskilling a soldier, several fishermen in the southern province of Hormozgan, and firefighters in Sistan and Baluchestan, according to Iranian government officials.
A railway bridge on the trade route that connects Iran with Central Asia and China was also hit, along with a bridge near Mashhad used by mourners going to the former leader. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei funeral.
The renewed hostilities have also drawn Qatar, a mediator along with Pakistan, directly into the conflict. Sunday, Iranian missiles and drones hit the Gulf state, with debris injuring three people, including a child, according to Qatar’s Interior Ministry.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has accused Washington of violating “almost all parts” of the June deal 25 days of his signature, mentioning the attack on construction and fishing vessels.
Baghaei said on Monday that Iran had “behaved in good faith” all along, but that “every time the other side has failed to meet its obligations, we have not followed through on ours, and we will continue to do so.”
Since the beginning of this war February 28Islamabad has acted as a mediator.
It led to discussion in Aprilthe first time in four decades that US and Iranian officials have sat in a room together.
His army chief and interior minister visited Tehran several times. In late March, Pakistan also helped secure a A peace process supported by China along with his diplomatic efforts.
In June, it helped create an agreement signed by Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump, along with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, which was also discussed at the event. Burgenstock summit in Switzerland.
However, experts say that Pakistan does not have the means to follow the agreements that help broker.
Javad Heiran-Nia, head of the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, said the agreement was not designed to end the conflict it causes.
“The MoU delayed major and major issues for future negotiations and served as a tool to help resolve conflicts and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to other countries,” he told Al Jazeera.
Iran, he said, sees control of the waterway as “a very important thing; not a coercive control, but a deterrent”, and seems “ready to accept the risk of war in order to preserve this opportunity”.
The mediators, he added, do not have the tools to resolve the conflict “unless the change of power between Iran and the United States can result from a few military conflicts”, pointing to the US military blockade as one of the few things that can change the intelligence calculations.
Dania Thafer, director of the Gulf International Forum in Doha, said that Pakistan’s maneuvering space has decreased because both sides have hardened their positions due to the crisis.
“Pakistan is in a situation that depends on both sides, as it has been, but right now, Iran wants to establish control over the Strait of Hormuz,” he told Al Jazeera.
According to Mr. Thafer, there is nothing Pakistan can do to escalate while Washington and Tehran remain in the “rising phase”.
“Once they feel that they have reached a tipping point in favor of one side or the other, then they will return to the negotiating table,” he added.
But Qamar Cheema, head of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute, dismissed the idea that Pakistan was operating without real weapons.
He pointed to US Vice President JD Vance’s latest commentswhere he praised the role of Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir in this process, as evidence that Islamabad’s military strategy is very important to Washington.
Access itself, he argued, is a tool.
“Pakistan likes to be trusted, that’s why all sides call and call the Pakistani leadership every time to remove the stumbling block,” Cheema told Al Jazeera.
more diplomacy, less measures
But Pakistan has not been the only channel of communication, and according to Heiran-Nia, the dispute over the river was not for Islamabad to mediate.
“Iran has already removed the issue of the Strait of Hormuz from the seat of Pakistan, because the issue was between Tehran and Muscat,” he said.
Tehran, he explained, does not want the issue “to be discussed within the framework of the Pakistani party, which would give Washington a political platform”.
Chudunji Iran-Oman talks compliance, but “US military pressure and economic threats in Oman have put Muscat in a difficult position, hindering progress,” according to a Tehran-based analyst.
Meanwhile, he warned that Sunday attacking Qatar “It could have a negative impact on Qatar’s role as a mediator”, although Doha “currently does not seem to want to leave”, adding that “Iran should not think that Doha’s patience has no limits.”
Mustafa Hyder Sayed, head of the Pakistan-China Institute in Islamabad, explained that the GCC countries are caught in an uncomfortable situation.
“The GCC countries are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. They want a working agreement with Iran while not openly rejecting the use of their base and territory by the United States, because they understand that they cannot choose their neighbors,” said Al Jazeera.
Meanwhile, Israel, which is not a party to the MoU, will continue its military operations work in Lebanonwhich Tehran says is an ongoing violation of the agreement.
Minister of Defense of Israel Israel Katz it said on Saturday that southern Lebanon “will become Gaza”, raising hopes of regional expansion.
Who blinks first?
Despite a week of increasing violence, the main conflict has not changed.
Washington and Tehran remain divided on the same issue that stalled talks even before the latest war: Who controls the Strait of Hormuz, and under what conditions?
Iran insists that the MoU gave it control over the waterway. The US opposes that.
On Monday, Trump announced that the US is reimposing a blockade on Iranian shipping and will impose a 20 percent tariff on all other ships trying to pass through.
However, in the past, a possible connection was briefly seen.
Heiran-Nia said that the parties have explored a way in which commercial ships will connect with Iran and the famous Arab Gulf country, allowing “all parties” to win “.
The negotiations were halted before they could, however, be interrupted by a funeral Former Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the US-Israel war.
The conflict has moved in the other direction, with the fight to shift power rather than re-opening negotiations.
“What is happening now is the continuation of military strikes with the aim of changing power. However, there is a risk that intelligence calculations on both sides may continue,” Heiran-Nia said.
Thafer believes that, despite the violence, neither side has abandoned the MoU.
“Iran is framing the current escalation as a violation of the MoU rather than a withdrawal, which means there may be light at the end of the road,” he said.
In his analysis, both sides are responsible for violations of the agreement, from Iran’s attacks on exports to Washington’s withdrawal of Iran’s oil sales license and military strikes. However, the relationship still exists, at least in practice.
His future, he said, depends on which side will ultimately solve the problem. Iran maintains what Thafer described as a “flip-flop capability” to disrupt shipping whenever it wants.
“It is difficult, militarily, to deter Iranian power. Let’s wait and see where that power will be,” he said.
Cheema, for his part, said that Iran’s behavior, more than the negotiations of any mediator, will decide how this will be resolved.
“Iranian authorities appear to be ambitious and aggressive, and are looking to take risks in building power, making it impossible for any deal to come to an end.
