Which men’s and women’s basketball teams would benefit from NCAA tournament expansion?

After years of waiting and debate, all signs point to NCAA Tournament expansion as imminent.

Pete Thamel of ESPN Report The NCAA began finalizing steps Tuesday to expand the men’s and women’s tournaments from 68 to 76 teams starting with the upcoming 2026-27 season — questions the NCAA will have to answer when it makes its official announcement.

ESPN’s resident bracketologists Charlie Crame and Joe Lunardi can now answer some of them, though, starting with which programs benefit the most.

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Which programs benefit the most: power conferences or mid-majors?

Lunardi: The multi-year pendulum continues to swing in favor of NCAA Tournament expansion power conferences. This is a natural extension of the expanded conference, as the current alliance of power conferences and the Big East consists of 79 schools compared to 73 a decade ago. Each of these programs expects to make the NCAA Tournament every season, so the pressure to “big” will never diminish, despite the overwhelming feeling that more teams won’t necessarily make for a “better” tournament.

Those hoping for a glut of extra mid-majors in the 76-team field may be disappointed. Outside of the recent and extremely rare example of Miami (Ohio), the bubble consisted primarily of mid-power conference members and high-end contenders from mid-major leagues such as the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, American, and West Coast Conferences. We can expect the resurgent Pac-12 to be part of the new at-large mix.

For better or worse, the days of Belmont or Middle Tennessee or Old Dominion earning big bids are probably gone. That only changes when the NCAA adopts a tournament eligibility floor, such as requiring a conference record of .500 or better for at-large consideration, in which case they run the risk of the big boys breaking away to form their own tournament before accepting any such restrictions.

A more likely consequence of all this maneuvering is an extension of the uneasy peace between the haves and have-nots, as both power-conference dominance and all existing automatic qualification are preserved — at least until the current tournament television contracts expire in 2032.

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Is the same true for women?

Cream: The women’s tournament is no exception. While a few more mid-majors may enter the field this time around — the Ivy League gets three teams in the 68-team field in 2025 — the expansion is another win for the power conference. The system is already tilted in their favor behind NCAA tournament selections. Adding more teams doesn’t change that.

As Joe pointed out above, the bubble — even the teams on the wrong side of it — is still largely comprised of teams from four power conferences.

Once league play begins in January, teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC will play only interconference foes, which only helps improve the committee’s evaluation metrics. The best mid-major teams have no chance to bolster their resumes after the new year, whether it’s an improvement in net or strength-of-schedule rankings or an effective eye test, because they’re typically not playing another tournament-worthy opponent. That’s why at the end of the 2025-26 season 10 of the teams ranked between 45 and 60 in the NET were from Power 4 conferences. That’s the same group the committee will take the longest look at adding eight more teams for the NCAA Tournament.

Joe mentioned it. If the NCAA comes up with the expansion of a minimum winning percentage standard for tournament eligibility, it will be something that college basketball consumers will actually accept. Otherwise, this move has taken one of the purest parts of our sports culture that even casual fans understand — the bracket — and turned it into something even die-hards will struggle to understand.

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Which team will make the cut this past season?

Teams listed in order of “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”.

Cream (for women): BYU, North Dakota State, Utah, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Stanford, Kansas, Indiana

North Dakota would support the state’s inclusion argument for The expansion Bison went 26-4 to win the regular-season title, so a bid to join Summit League “bid thief” South Dakota State would be a nice reward. But a closer look reveals that seven of the top eight teams represent otherwise powerhouse conferences.

On the other side of the coin is Texas A&M, an SEC team with a losing conference record and a 14-12 mark overall. The Aggies needed a five-game winning streak at the end of the regular season to finish two games above .500, but didn’t win a game in the SEC Tournament and lost by 20 to McNeese in the Women’s Basketball Invitational.

Lunardi (men): Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, New Mexico, Indiana, Stanford, Cincinnati, Seton Hall

Both San Diego State and New Mexico have been frequent NCAA Tournament participants outside of the Mountain West, so you’ll notice there are no “true” mid-majors in this group.

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Which teams do you project this season?

Teams listed in order of “first four out” and “next four out” groupings from the first edition of the men’s and women’s 2027 bracketology projections

Lunardi (men): Oregon, Oklahoma, Providence, Xavier, Marquette, State of Utah, SMU, Clemson

Again, only Utah State comes from outside of a power conference and the Big East Coalition — and the Aggies have made four straight tournament appearances (and six of the last eight).

Cream (for women): State of Michigan, San Diego State, North Dakota State, Indiana, Arizona, State of Kansas, California, Georgia

While next year’s projections aren’t easy to determine with 11 months in advance and no games to evaluate, the list above tells the same story as 2026. The Bison and Aztecs, depending on how San Diego State should be classified based on the resurgent part of the Pac-12, are the only non-power conference representatives. Adding the Spartans and Hoosiers to the field means 14 of the 18 Big Ten teams will be in the NCAA Tournament. Logic dictates that teams that finish 13th and 14th in any league, no matter how big — like look at the English Premier League table — will be sub-.500 within that conference. Oregon and Nebraska, 11th and 12th this season, finished with losing Big Ten records and received at-large bids. The expansion project will be made four next year.