Things are not going well in Russia | Russia-Ukraine war

The annual Victory Day Parade in Moscow serves two purposes. It reminds Russian citizens and the Kremlin’s audience in the former Soviet Union of the past. The muscles that rotate on May 9 each year represent the fortunes of Russia.

Last year on the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, Russian President Vladimir Putin was accompanied by dignitaries from other countries: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia, Nicolas Maduro of Egypt Abdel Fattasi, Abdel Fattasi of Egypt and Abdel Fattasi of Egypt. the head of the Palestinian Authority.

This year, the list was not very interesting. Leaders from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Laos, Malaysia and Uzbekistan attended – with Republika Srpska, Abkhazia and South Ossetia for added flavor – but not beating the rich likes of India or China.

The issue of Russia as a major part of the new world order is not going well these days, as no heavy weapons were passed through at this time due to the fear of being attacked by Ukrainian planes. On top of that, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, said that he was indebted for the end of the three-day war between Moscow and Kyiv.

An unfortunate story that happened this year tells a lot about the current state of Russia. On paper, everything is going well. Trump has not completely abandoned the idea of ​​a deal to end the war in Ukraine, even at the price of Kyiv. The current US National Security Strategy calls for “systemic stability” with Russia while undermining “awakened” European policies.

The uncertain war against Iran, meanwhile, has exposed the limits of US military power. Oil prices have risen, filling Russia’s reserves and controlling its currency. On top of that, Trump has lifted restrictions on some Russian oil to increase global supply. Meanwhile, the Europeans are showing that they want to talk to Moscow.

In fact, life is difficult. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to be stalled despite the money, resources and lives the Kremlin throws into the meat grinder known as the special military operation (SVO). Ukrainian drones have struck deep inside Russia and even Red Square appears to be immune from airstrikes.

Trump has lost interest in wooing Putin. With Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gone, the European Union has consolidated. In Russia itself, economic growth has slowed from 4 percent in 2024 to just over 1 percent this year.

Prospects for long-term development, productivity growth and innovation are rare. There are humble ones signs of dissatisfaction among the Russian Elite. Although Putin’s popularity in the country has decreased slightly, according to researchers.

Mobile internet shutdowns in Moscow and other major cities have been met with frustration. Russians could be forgiven for being baffled at how the SVO, marketed as a glorified reenactment of the 1941-1945 World War, has lasted longer than the latter without ending. No wonder Putin was forced to say on Saturday that this “story” was coming to an end.

Although its economy is focused on Ukraine, Russia is behind what is also called “near abroad”. The past week has shown that Europe is making progress there.

On Monday, Armenia hosted the annual meeting of the European Political Community (EPC), where European leaders gathered. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also present. Once a loyal client of Moscow and a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union, Yerevan is now strengthening ties with the West.

Even if the EPC is dismissed as a pan-European talking shop – or perhaps transatlantic, since Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada, also came – observers cannot ignore that it was followed by the first EU-Armenia meeting. The summit did not make it clear that Yerevan sees its future in the EU. In theory, it is looking to join the three of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

The EU reiterates: The conference negotiated a 2.5 billion ($2.95bn) loan to Armenia; cooperation in energy, transport and digital infrastructure; and visa liberalization.

Similarly, both Armenia and Azerbaijan are supporting the Trump administration. The two countries have welcomed the US as a peacemaker as they move closer to normalizing relations. In August at the White House, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a pledge to seek peace.

In February, JD Vance became the first US vice president to visit Yerevan and jump to Baku. Armenians and Azeris are discussing the opening of the Zangezur road that runs between Azerbaijan proper and Nakhchivan itself (where the Aliyev family is from). The project has a name – Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.

In short, the US has gained several points behind Russia with the help of Pashinyan and Aliyev. Moscow looks away like an old satellite drifting away from its embrace. And the EU and Turkey will benefit because Armenia’s openness and communication with its neighbors favors their integration goals.

Of course, this does not mean that Armenia can just jump the train from Russia to the West. Moscow maintains an investment in Armenia’s economy and, therefore, political power.

This will be reflected in the June elections, which will pit the Pashinyan Civil Contract against the Armenia Alliance of former President Robert Kocharyan and the Strong Armenia alliance of Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan. Both Kocharyan and Karapetyan have strong ties to Moscow.

Public opinion favors different relationships but not complete dissolution. This is a pragmatic position that Pashinyan also shares despite his focus on relations with the West.

Russia failed – or hesitated – to support Armenia against Azerbaijan and prevent the loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and the Armenians are right to look elsewhere for cooperation. But without a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and without a full settlement with Turkey, one must tread carefully and not burn bridges.

The Armenian leadership should also take action in neighboring Iran, with which it has good relations. An escalation of the US-Israel conflict over Iran could threaten cross-border energy trade.

Putin would have liked to see Armenia and Azerbaijan attend on Saturday. Ditto in Moldova, where the EU forces won the parliamentary elections of 2025. Or Georgia, which has no relations with Russia even though it is controlled by the Georgian Dream, a party that looked good in the Kremlin.

The chances that these countries will return next year are slim. Even Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan may not confirm until the last minute, as they have been doing for years.

Today, Russia is closer to the outside world than it is close.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect Al Jazeera’s influence.