The leadership of Hamas is expected between Meshaal and al-Hayya | Israel-Palestine War News

Hamas plans to hold a second election next week to choose its new political leader. This will complete the difficult transition process that was started to fill the leadership left by the Israeli killing of some of the leaders of the group, such as Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar.

The much-anticipated vote represents a difficult time for the Palestinian Authority as it tries to rebuild itself, even in the face of Israel’s ongoing war.

According to a Hamas source, the internal decision to choose a chairman has narrowed down to what is expected to be a central conflict between former Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal and. Deputy Vice Chairman Khalil al-Hayya.

The winner will replace the current transitional council, which took over after Sinwar’s assassination in Gaza in October 2024. The new leader will serve until 2027, when new elections are due.

Under Hamas’ internal rules, a candidate must obtain a majority of 50 percent plus one vote in the Shura Council – the group’s governing body – to win the leadership. Because no one met the threshold in the first round, a second election is scheduled for next week to be held.

The source explained that, according to the 2021 plan, the two top positions of leadership should include a representative of the Gaza region – one of the three areas in which Hamas is divided, and the other two are the West Bank and the diaspora. Therefore, if al-Hayya, who represents Gaza, does not secure the leadership in the demonstration, he is expected to become the deputy political leader.

Change in process

A second Hamas source told Al Jazeera that the group has been forced to abandon its voting system, which involves participation in all elections. In fact, the minority group has been able to vote in political elections, to complete the electoral period that started in 2021.

The source explained that security concerns caused by the conflict, including the urgent need to fill vacancies in the Shura Council due to the death of several members, delayed the election of the leadership. Despite the difficulties, the source denied reports of a secret leadership or party as a whole, saying that the new nominee will be formally and publicly announced after the voting.

All Hamas sources confirmed that regardless of next week’s results, preparations for a comprehensive, popular election in all three traditional areas should begin next year, according to the security situation.

Palestinian political analyst Abdullah Aqrabawi told Al Jazeera that these internal events can no longer be seen as door events of your group. Since the events of October 7, 2023, Hamas has acted as a central player whose decisions return to the Palestinian territory, directly controlling the Middle East. Therefore, Aqrabawi said, the change in the leadership of Hamas has become a matter of great attention to the regions and countries.

Institutional stability

The current election is based on the internal elections of Hamas early 2021. Haniyeh was appointed head of the political body, while Sinwar was also appointed to head the Gaza Strip and Meshaal was appointed to head the foreign affairs wing.

The organization faced unprecedented turmoil after the start of the war, which led Israel to target several political and military factions of Hamas. In July 2024, the political leader Haniyeh was to be killed in Tehran, to promote the Shura Council name Sinwar as his full successor in August 2024 Death of Sinwar During the conflict with the Israeli army in Rafah in October 2024, the group changed and established a temporary, five-member administrative body to deal with the control of the war and negotiations. The transition committee was chaired by Qatari leader Mohammad Darwish.

Although Israel wants to eliminate Hamas’s weapons of governance and control, the nature of the change reflects the security of the group’s ranks.

Palestinian political analyst Wissam Afifa told Al Jazeera that the Hamas movement works in a similar way to the natural process of “mitotic division” – when one cell divides to form two identical cells. In times of crisis, existing strategies and backup plans simply introduce secondary teams and leadership to take control.

Afifa stressed that although well-known, charismatic figures cannot be replaced, the survival of the organization is not tied to one person, which makes the group take on unprecedented challenges.

Concurring with this assessment, Aqrabawi noted that the group’s persistence in strictly following its voting rules and regulations in the midst of the ongoing war shows its steadfastness.

Instead of having people elected quickly or by consensus, the group has opted for a voting system. According to Aqrabawi, the ongoing competition between two different leaders shows a good internal debate about the politics and strategy of the group at a critical time.

Changes in the decision-making environment

The war still forced a change in the way Hamas rules itself. Afifa also said that the intense focus of the long-standing Hamas military commanders inside the Gaza Strip has led to an inevitable delegation.

In order to ensure that it does not continue, the political leadership abroad has been given a great responsibility to make the right decisions. This delegation of authority allows foreign leaders to conduct diplomatic and political processes without the immediate complications of military operations.

This external rotation has continued despite direct threats. Last September, Israel he started a conspiracy at a Doha apartment targeting Hamas officials, although the leadership survived. Afifa noted that while group leadership has been crucial to building unity during this transitional period, Hamas’s history shows that strong, charismatic, individual leadership will remain necessary to effect the greatest change in history.

Diplomatic and post-war consequences

The outcome of the vote is expected to reflect the organization’s progress in the ceasefire negotiations. Although al-Hayya has been heavily involved as a senior Hamas negotiator working in areas such as Qatar, Meshaal has remained outside of the diplomatic engagements that have taken place over the past year.

According to the second source, if al-Hayya wins the presidency, structural changes may be introduced to the committees that oversee the negotiations to resolve the conflict. However, if Meshaal is elected, the negotiation process will continue as planned, with al-Hayya retaining his oversight of the Gaza file and the main negotiation team. At the end of the day, any potential changes or positive changes to the diplomatic corps will remain at the discretion of the incoming president.

Looking ahead, the next leader will face the difficult task of managing post-war reconstruction and relations with other Palestinian groups, such as Fatah. Aqrabawi stressed that the most important, the most important priority of the incoming leadership should be to preserve the political value of the Palestinian resistance and protect the social and cultural values ​​of the Gaza Strip. Changing course or showing signs of a return to moderate war, Aqrabawi warned, would not be helpful at a time when communities are showing that Israel is struggling to force military action.