Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Three weeks after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to end their war and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the future of passing through the most important waterway is under a cloud.
Three trains have been attacked in recent days, after Iran accused them of trying to pass without permission. The US returned with increasing threats on Iranian soil – first targeting coastal cities, then, on Thursday morning, hitting the capital Tehran, too. Iran has also fired missiles and drones at several Gulf countries, even as the funeral of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei continues.
US President Donald Trump has said he thinks the deal is “over”, sparking fears of a renewed war against Iran. Tehran, meanwhile, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz again.
All this has to do with the global economy that has been dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for many years, which suffered in recent months when the US-Israeli alliance fought with Iran, and is now recovering.
Hormuz River
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime corridors. The narrow waterway, which is very narrow at about 33km (21 miles) wide, connects the oil and gas-rich Gulf to the rest of the world.
Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through each day – about a fifth of the world’s oil – which makes any interruption in the delivery of great concern to the world’s energy markets and trade.
How many ships have been attacked in the strait since the end of the war on June 17?
At least five merchant ships have been attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran ceasefire.
June 25: The Singapore-flagged cruise ship Ever Lovely was hit by a projectile about 14km (7.5 nautical miles) southeast of the Omani port of Dahit. No one was injured, and the ship continued its journey.
June 27: The Panamanian-flagged tanker Kiku was hit by what US Central Command (CENTCOM) described as a one-off attack while carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude oil. No crew members were injured, and no oil was spilled.
The US criticized Iran and attacked the cities on the southern coast on June 26 and June 27. Iran retaliated with attacks on the US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, before both sides agreed to negotiate.
July 6-7: Three other ships were attacked in separate incidents:
- The Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker Al Rekayyat was hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman, causing an engine room fire. The crew were safely evacuated, but the ship was badly damaged.
- The Saudi-flagged oil tanker Wedyan was damaged in another attack while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. No injuries were reported.
- A third ship, the M/T Cyprus Prosperity, which had a Liberian flag, was also attacked.
How many ships have passed through the route since the MoU was signed on June 17?
Before the war, about 100 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz every day, about half of them tankers carrying 20 million barrels of oil.
Iran effectively shut down the problem after the US-Israeli bombing campaign began on February 28, with the US closing Iranian ports a few weeks later.
The waterway was reopened after the first US-Iran agreement was announced on June 17. However, the number of ships remained low. According to PortWatch data, only 513 ships passed through the channel in the first 18 days after it reopened between June 18 and July 5, an average of 28 ships per day, far below the pre-war average.
With the U.S. and Iran now attacking each other’s territory or bases, the passage through the corridor may stop.
Since the agreement was signed, many ships have updated their AIS transponders, but others have not – making it difficult to estimate the number of transponders sent through the channel.
How many sailors are left?
About 6,000 sailors remain missing in the Gulf, according to a International Maritime Organization. Many are on ships unable to safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz after months of conflict and repeated attacks on merchant ships disrupting shipping.
What is a path argument?
Many ships leaving the Gulf are avoiding pre-war shipping routes out of concern naval mines. Instead, they are exiting the Gulf through two corridors: one through Iranian waters and the other through Omani waters under US supervision. The central part of the strait – where the lake is believed to be the most mined – remains unexploited.
However, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said ships should use the routes chosen by Tehran, rejecting the newly announced shipping route through Omani waters. The IRGC warned that ships that failed to comply with Iran’s directives could face threats.
Iran has said it plans to impose fines after a 60-day transition period. At the same time, the US and many shipping companies maintain that Hormuz is an international shipping route where navigation should be free.
Trump has said that any payments “would be unacceptable”.
