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Sylvie Andrews and her friend not only lost the new home they helped build when the Eaton Fire swept through Altadena, California, in January 2025. They lost the tens of thousands of dollars they had donated to build their village, but also the community they created. “We put a lot of blood, sweat, and tears into it,” Andrews said. “That’s what we lost in the fire.”
That fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed more than 16,000 homes and they killed 31 people. But while Andrews and thousands of Angelenos were rushing to move, some people saw an opportunity to make money. Using Polymarket, the world’s largest market prediction platform, they bet on fire – how big it will grow, how long it will last, and how much it will cost.
Prediction markets are betting sites where people bet on the outcome of events, including elections, sports, weather, and more. Everything is fair game, from oil prices and the spread of infectious diseases to global events. Advertisements usually ask questions in the form of “yes” or “no”, the value of the “agreement” varies between $0 and $1. A price of 50 cents on a “yes” contract means that the people making the bet collectively believe that the event has a 50 percent chance of happening. Bettors earn money by paying money on wagers.
In January 2025, Polymarket was listed about 20 questions, was created and the platform’s “marketing group”, related to the wildfires burning in Southern California. Why? How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday, three days after it burned on Tuesday? Desire Will the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisades fire be 50 percent? Desire Will the Palisades and Eaton fires be put out before February?
People to destroy $1.2 million bet on these questions, according to at Aeon Magazine. “Wow,” Andrews said repeatedly after learning the number. “The first thing I thought was bad behavior,” he said. “The fact that someone would feel good about doing this makes me happy.”
“Prediction markets are the wild, wild west,” said Susan Sherman, who grew up in Pacific Palisades. He lost his childhood home in the Palisades Fire; his deceased parents had owned it since 1963, and now they were gone. They sold the vacant lot a few months ago. “I see (betting on fire) as stupid and heartless.”
Like the prediction markets boom and as a new wildfire season begins, fire survivors and behavioral experts say gambling encourages and rewards ruthless thinking—and dangerous behavior.
The biggest concern from wildfire forecast markets is burning. “That’s what scares me,” Sherman said. In fact, gambling can give a person a bad incentive to light a fire or help him grow. Unlike other disasters, such as hurricanes, floods, or extreme heat, fires can be controlled by humans in a matter of minutes. A spokesperson for the US Forest Service said: “Strategies that link economic benefits to wildfires can encourage misuse, including burning, and are inconsistent with our mission.”
“Imagine what a bad actor would do,” said Ann Skeet, director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University. “The market that can support these types of projects, I think, is a risk market.” Firefighters or site managers with special knowledge about fire operations or an organization’s firefighting plans may be tempted to place bets on fires, which could be considered insider trading.
