Migration is increasing even as progress is being made | Migration

After governments gathered in New York for the second meeting of the International Migration Review Forum (IMRF) to review the situation in the world’s migration situation, the big question is approaching: is the Global Compact for Migration improving the conditions of people on the move?

The answer is yes.

Launched in 2018, the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration is the first international agreement that aims to make migration safe and humane through cooperation. In the Middle East and North Africa, the International Organization for Migration’s Global Overview of Migration Routes (2025), which tracks migration patterns, risks and deaths in major routes around the world, presents a mixed picture. Some methods are changing, but the risks people face are still great, and sometimes getting worse.

Across the Mediterranean, arrival numbers alone can be misleading. In 2025, more than 66,500 people arrived in Italy and Malta via the Central Mediterranean Route, almost the same as last year. Arrivals to Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria along the Eastern Mediterranean Route fell by almost 30 percent, while the Western Mediterranean Route rose slightly. The Western African Atlantic route to the Canary Islands fell by 62 percent.

Based on isolation, these figures may indicate a strong decline in the European borders. But when they get low it doesn’t mean that they travel safely. On the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, death and loss of life almost doubles in one year. On the Western African Atlantic Route, deaths have not decreased even though arrivals have dropped significantly – meaning that the chances of dying at sea are increasing. And on the Central Mediterranean Route, more than 1,300 people are known to have died in 2025, keeping it among the deadliest in the world.

This reflects the reality: Border controls are stuck or changing paths, journeys are often long, fragmented and dangerous. People continue to move, but with limited options, many are pushed to less sustainable and risky routes.

Sudan shows how crisis can reshape mobility across the region. Three years after the conflict began in April 2023, Sudan has become the world’s biggest refugee crisis. At its peak, the number of refugees more than tripled, reaching 11.5 million. About 4 million people have returned to their homes – often to damaged or partially damaged homes – but about 9 million remain homeless. Given this, it is not surprising that many Sudanese citizens appear in the Eastern and Central Mediterranean routes. For many, these trips are not a first choice but a last resort, as options in Sudan and neighboring countries are restricted.

The MENA region is also closely related to international trends. Migration from Asia and the Pacific to Europe will increase significantly in 2025, with almost one in three illegal immigrants coming from this region. Most of these journeys pass through North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean. A change in visa policy in another country, an ongoing conflict in another country, or a new lobbying strategy can reset threats thousands of miles away.

Meanwhile, the challenges driving travel in and around MENA are not slowing down. The region has the lowest population density in the world, with youth unemployment often exceeding 20 percent. Climate-related hazards – droughts, floods, heat waves – are increasingly linked to conflict and economic crisis. These factors do not work independently; they merge, enabling internal migration and movement across borders.
What does this mean for policy? There are several things that need to be prioritized.

First, search and rescue skills must be adapted to real-world situations. Stability or decline in arrival numbers should not be considered a low risk. The high number of deaths in other ways underscores the need for strong cooperation in crisis response, awareness of deaths and disappearances, and support for frontline communities. Saving lives at sea and on land is of the utmost importance to society, law and morality.

Second, safe and sustainable practices must be developed. If formal options are limited, people facing violence, economic hardship or family separation may resort to informal options. Well-designed migration policies, family reunification strategies and social assistance systems can reduce dependence on hazardous travel and support development in countries of origin and destination.

Third, good and shared data is essential. The Global Overview and Sudan displacement statistics show the need to integrate statistics on arrivals, objective analysis and information on deaths and missing persons. Continued investment in national data systems can help governments anticipate pressures and make more effective policies.

Finally, more cooperation is needed. In New York this week, 130 countries from around the world are working to advance the implementation of the Global Compact, recognizing that migration is a phenomenon that is best managed by sustainable and effective cooperation.

This IMRF is about cooperation, and clarity about what we can do. Increase the safety and stability of the system. Promote fair employment and worker safety. Invest in data and security products that save lives. And cooperate across borders to dismantle criminal networks. If we do it right, fewer people will suffer, fewer lives will be lost – and more people, and communities, will be better off. This is the opportunity before us – here, and now. Let’s do it – together.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect Al Jazeera’s influence.