Is Ukraine’s campaign targeting Russian factories working? | | Russia-Ukraine war

Ukraine’s long-running strikes on Russian oil refineries have led to oil shortages across the country. He forced Moscow, a major hydrocarbon producer, to start buying oil from abroad. Ukraine has also disrupted food supplies to Russia in the northern Sea of ​​Azov, causing fuel shortages and power outages on the Crimean peninsula.

The attack has produced dramatic videos of refineries on fire and Clickbait headlines that say “Russia is losing”.

But what they have failed to achieve so far is to change the calculations of Russian President Vladimir Putin. After a long silence, Mr. Putin recently admitted that the attack was very painful for Russia. But instead of adjusting his stance to bring about peace, as Ukraine and its allies had hoped he would, he showed intransigence and confidence.

In a statement released on June 23, he indicated that he has not given up on his ambitions. They want the peace deal to be based on the Ukraine-Russia agreement that was established at the Istanbul talks in 2022, a few months into Russia’s violence. This included Ukraine’s political neutrality and hiding the size of its military, among other things.

But there are some things that have accumulated during the four and a half years of war. This is what Putin calls “the real ground”, which represents the whole of Russia that has existed until now. Moscow wants to keep.

And on top of that, they add another sound word: “Anchorage modality”, referring to the policies surrounding the Alaska hybrid summit between Putin and US President Donald Trump in August 2025. What it stands for is Russia’s demands presented at the summit – that Ukraine should withdraw from the Donbas regions that it still controls.

Finally, Putin has infamously expanded his regional interests beyond the Donbas to what he calls Novorossiya – an obscure geographical term derived from the name of a region that was part of the Russian Empire in what is now southern Ukraine. Ambiguity is probably intentional: the interpretation could be from the main goal of seizing the city of Odesa to the port of Odesa, but the most painful for Ukraine – to want Kyiv to leave the uninhabited region of Zaporizhia, in addition to Donbas.

Putin’s decision to reduce his demands must be based on the fact that the situation in the country is not going well. For all the impressive pictures of oil refineries and lines at gas stations, most Russians have seen worse in their lives.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the country saw political unrest throughout the country, followed by two wars in Chechnya and a series of deadly attacks such as the Dubrovka stadium and Beslan school sieges.

When it comes to economic problems, most Russians are still enjoying a standard of living similar to that of the poor countries of the European Union and a far cry from what they endured throughout the 1990s.

More importantly, their war experience is far from that of the Ukrainians – who faced the most brutal Russian attacks, wintering in unheated houses and avoiding violent gangs hunting men on the streets of Ukrainian towns and villages.

Ukraine itself is a perfect example of what a post-Soviet world can endure without challenging the government through mass demonstrations or military coups.

Russia itself used the same tactics to target Ukraine at the beginning of the war. The Ukrainians changed, and so did the Russians.

Oil shortages cause pain, but Russian oil and gas still produce. It acts as an economic backbone, ensuring the country’s ability to fight while dealing with Ukraine’s problems with the Western alliance.

Like March paper On the prospect of Russian oil production and the US think tank, the Carnegie Center says, Russia’s problems “are well within the Kremlin and the ability of the oil industry to weather storms and challenges” in the next three to five years, which are very important to win the war. In a few months after the publication of this paper, Russia filled its pockets with billions of extra oil, thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. It is currently in a very good location.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is completely dependent on European aid, which is difficult for them to obtain. Having lost its main donor, the United States, it now relies on European governments – particularly British, French and German – which are also facing strong pressure from the far right to stop funding Ukraine.

Last week, Zelenskyy announced a 40-day “persuasion operation”, meaning drone strikes, to force Russia to agree to end the conflict on favorable terms in Ukraine.

But Russia does not turn the other cheek. They have begun their own operation to demolish oil facilities on the left bank of the Dnipro River to completely eliminate Ukrainian military and civilian assets.

Ukraine and its Western allies may come up with another surprise move that will cause pain to Russia. But there is a chance that Zelenskyy’s 40-day campaign will see mixed results and the big picture will not change much from what we see today.

The most important achievement that Ukraine has failed to achieve is the deterrence of Russian aggression. Although the Western press is announcing the expected defeat in Moscow, the Russian army is busy completing the seizure of Kostiantynivka, the first of many industrial cities that make up the northern group of Donbas, the main prize of the current war.

It is clear from the comments of the Russian government and experts that Russia sees the Ukrainian drone campaign mainly as a PR exercise aimed at persuading US President Donald Trump to resume support for Ukraine.

Like many long-term observers of Ukraine, the Russians also feel a sense of deja vu – similar PRs accompanied the failed 2023 Ukraine initiative and the invasion of Russia’s Kursk region.

The results of the conflict so far suggest that the latest escalation could lead to a hair-raising high that would prompt the Kremlin to raise the price of peace. In the end, Ukraine will not gain much, except suffering and loss.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.