Is Christian Zionism in the US Declining? | | Appearance

In March 1992, Christianity Today, a popular US-based evangelical Christian magazine, displayed cover story dedicated to Christian Zionism – a theological and political group that believes that all Jews must move to Palestine to usher in the second coming of Jesus Christ.

The article warned that the group is seeing a “decline” in its support, which comes mostly from conservative Christians, who traditionally vote Republican.

But over the next thirty years, Christian Zionism grew. It is said to have tens of millions of followers, mostly in the southeast and south-central region, known as the “Bible Belt”.

Controlling political and economic power, Christian Zionism played a major role in establishing the US’s unconditional support for Israel among the right wing. The group also helped elect George W Bush to two terms and supported his devastating war in Iraq, which was. divine justification and other Christian Zionists if necessary to initiate the rebuilding of Babylon, the second coming of Jesus Christ and the end of time.

More than 30 years later, another publication announced the group’s demise. In its November 2025 issue, Jacobin, a conservative magazine in the US, he predicted “The End Times of Christian Zionism”.

The magazine’s story about one of the most powerful political groups in the US came after Israel’s devastating war in Gaza, which has caused the American people to support America’s closest ally. The war, which has killed more than 72,000 Palestinians, including 38,000 women and children, has created divisions within evangelicals.

But despite the decline in public support, Christian Zionists still have a lot of influence in the US power system because of their vast wealth and the rise of their institutions.

The lobby group Christian United for Israel (CUFI), a Christian Zionist organization, for example, spent more than $670,000 on lobbying in Washington to strengthen sanctions on Iran, among other things. CUFI has also helped raise billions of dollars for Israel.

Christian Zionists have used their power to end the current war in Iran. Prominent Christian leaders have praised the Trump administration for launching what they see as a religious war that could lead to the fulfillment of another. Bible prophecy about the war between Israel and “Persia”.

So, can they sustain their influence amid the decline in Israeli aid to the US? Or is fall just around the corner this time?

Cracks in the lower support

The Christian Zionist movement cuts across all religions, but evangelical Christians form its foundation. They prefer to accept Zionism because they believe they have a religious obligation to support the Jews, God’s chosen people. Some Christian Zionists see Israel as a natural ally of the US and protector of the Holy Land.

One of the reasons Jacobin and other experts predict a “decline” is because recent surveys have shown a decline in support for Israel in both groups, especially young people.

In a 2021 survey, which only looked at evangelicals under the age of 30, only 33.6 percent of respondents said they support Israel.

The experts who started the study, Motti Inbari and Kirill Bumin, thought that one of the reasons for the great change of opinion among young evangelicals is the less faith in the fundamental interpretation of the Bible: premillennialism – which they identified as “hostile to Israel and the Jews”.

Premillennialism is the belief that Jesus Christ will return to earth to rule 1,000 years before the end of time. In order for this to happen, several prophecies must be fulfilled, especially related to the restoration of biblical Israel. Millennialists, therefore, believe that modern-day Israel needs help in the war against regional enemies and to help build the Third Temple at what is now the Al Aqsa Mosque in occupied Jerusalem, the third holiest site in Islam.

In a 2021 survey, only 21 percent of respondents said they believed in premillennialism; in contrast, a 2011 survey by the National Association of Evangelicals found that 65 percent of evangelicals of all ages hold this belief.

Apart from the change in religious opinion, there has also been a change in political opinion due to events in the Middle East, such as the massacre in Gaza and the war between Israel and the US on Iran.

Polls released by Pew Research show a sharp decline in support for Israel among conservative youth and Christians in general.

A recent survey by the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) also shows a growing perception among young Republicans that Israel has too much influence in US politics. It also shows that these negative thoughts can be converted into votes.

Money is power

According to experts, until now, this change of opinion among Christian youth in the US has not had a palpable influence on the power of Christian Zionism can project.

“Today, (Christian Zionism) may be less in the world, but being more popular does not mean less power,” Reverend Fares Abraham, a Palestinian-American Christian pastor and author, told Al Jazeera. “(They) are well-organized, well-paid, and closely aligned with religious and Jewish Zionist groups.

But how did this power come about?

According to Daniel Hummel, a research fellow in the history department at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Christian Zionism became more powerful as a movement because it resonated with pre-existing views on the theology and culture of Israel and America, especially among evangelical Christians.

This religious group, which makes up about a third of the US population, became an organized voting bloc in the 1970s, when it helped elect Richard Nixon, then Jimmy Carter.

Support for Israel was gradually placed in the list of their concerns by evangelical leaders, such as the Baptist pastor Jerry Falwell, who developed a close relationship with the Israeli government in the 1970s.

In 1979, he founded the Conservative Moral Majority which helped unify and establish Christian liberal politics in the US and secured Ronald Reagan’s presidency. Just two years after he founded the organization, Falwell boasted that he “could gather 70 million loving Christians in Israel”.

Today, the Evangelical Christian movement has 90 million voters.

Due to the administrative nature of the administration and the lack of a single official legal entity, there is no financial data to show its financial strength.

To see how Christian Zionism gets its money, Al Jazeera researched the finances of organizations whose leaders were identified as “50 Christian allies of Israel” by the US-based Israel Allies Foundation (IAF) over the past five years. These include major churches, religious media, charities and NGOs.

Al Jazeera was able to access government information for 36 organizations. Their annual revenue is $2.8bn.

By comparison, in 2024, the National Association of Realtors, one of the largest real estate lobbying organizations – had $360m in revenue; The National Rifle Association – which promotes gun control laws – had $174m.

Christian Zionist organizations, however, do not function as lobby organizations. According to Melani McAlister, a professor of American Studies and International Affairs at George Washington University, their goal is not to attract politicians through political donations but to increase the number of their followers.

“The goal of these organizations (Christian Zionism) is to get large groups of ordinary people behind them,” he said.

Some organizations can achieve that by converting people; Major churches on Al Jazeera’s list, such as the Free Chapel, boast hundreds of thousands of followers with annual revenue of up to $103m.

The nearest drop?

The change in attitude among conservative Christian youth has not led to political change, but it has caused concern in the US and Israel.

Before he was killed last September, Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA, an organization that focuses on encouraging the independent youth vote and is said to have helped Trump get a second term, sent a letter to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“In my opinion, Israel is losing the information war and needs to ‘intervene’,” he wrote.

In October, Israel partnered with a US company to create a “geofencing” campaign targeting evangelical churches to promote digital products that support Israel, and to pay pastors for helping spread the word about Israel.

In December, Israel welcomed 1,000 American pastors and activists to train them to be their ambassadors and reach out to young Americans.

In late April, the Knesset approved $730m in pro-Israel PR spending – four times the amount spent last year.

Does all this indicate that Christian Zionism has fallen? Experts do not see any major changes in the short term that could affect the 2026 mid-term elections, but long-term developments could undermine the administration’s strength.

According to McAlister, the fact that Israel can sell itself as an ally in the fight against the “Muslim threat” still appeals to the US public. At the same time, criticism of Israel remains expensive, and it may not be very visible in the polls this season.

“The pro-Israel side (still) can hurt people who oppose it,” he said.

In his opinion, Christian support of Zionists in the war against Iran cannot reflect badly on this group or on Israel. It can, however, encourage separatist movements on the right.

For Hummel, Christian Zionism is facing a major challenge of changing theology. In seminaries and other Christian media, long-held evangelical beliefs about the end of time and the centrality of modern Israel are being strongly challenged.

In his opinion, this affects young preachers who no longer see Israel through biblical prophecies but through the lens of social justice: Palestinians being oppressed, and Israel – oppressors.

“The deep religious culture is changing in a way that – to me – makes it difficult to envision a transition to a more cohesive, strong pro-Israel movement in the future,” Hummel said.

He also feels that the interfaith coalition that people like Falwell built in the 1970s and 1980s may be breaking down. The result could be a growing division along religious lines — Evangelicals versus Catholics — that could affect the Republican Party’s ability to rally young voters.

In Rev Abraham’s opinion, there is also a risk of division among evangelicals and that the war in Iran, like the genocide in Gaza, could increase the contradiction between the political rhetoric that conservative Christians face and Christian teachings.

“The biggest threat to Christian Zionism and the politics surrounding this war is not just failure. It’s a show of morality. It’s a strong religious base that it represents,” Rev Abraham told Al Jazeera.