Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
World Cup calculations are pinning their hopes on the Lions of Teranga and Al Rafidain despite losing their first two matches;
As the third and final round of the 2026 World Cup group stage kicks off, all eyes will be on one of the most exciting battles of the tournament, the qualification card competition for the best third-placed teams.
Following the adoption of the new 48-team World Cup system, third place is no longer the end of the road as the top 8 third-placed teams qualify for the round of 32, keeping many teams’ hopes alive until the final moments of the group stage.
Read also:
Although 5 teams have officially been eliminated from the qualification race: Haiti, Tunisia, Turkey, Jordan and Panama, the remaining teams still have various chances to reach the qualification stages.
Senegal-Iraq surprise
According to the forecasts of the Football Mets Data platform, which specializes in statistics and results analysis, the third place in the ninth group has a 72 percent chance of qualifying for the round of 32.
The group includes Senegal and Iraq, who lost to France and Norway in their first two games, but a head-to-head clash between them in the final round could give the winner a great chance to finish in the top three.
Despite a disastrous start for both teams, a win in the last game will take the winner’s points to 3 points, which could be enough to secure a place in the knockout stages.
As for Opta Network’s supercomputer predictions, they give Senegal a 69.54% chance of qualifying, with the Lions of Teranga likely to overcome Iraq in the upcoming clash.
So, Sadio Mane’s team may have managed to pull off one of the tournament’s most exciting comeback stories after losing to France (1-3) and Norway (2-3) in the first two rounds.
Morocco and Algeria are in a comfortable position
On the other hand, some groups seem closer to securing qualification for the third-placed team.
Group 12 top the table with a 96.7% chance of a third-placed team, given the ongoing battle for top spot between England, Croatia and Ghana, while three teams look very likely to progress to the round of 32.
The third-placed participant in Group Six is behind him with 96.4 percent as the battle is still open for the top spot between the Netherlands, Japan and Sweden.
As for Group 3, which includes Morocco, Brazil and Scotland, the third-place team has an 84% chance of qualifying, which puts the three teams in a relatively comfortable position ahead of the finals.
In Group Four, led by the USA, the third-placed team has an 82.2% chance of qualifying, while in Group Ten, led by Argentina, that percentage is 79.7%.
In this group, the focus will be on the clash between Algeria and Austria, which will decide the final standings, but the current figures give the third-placed team a very strong chance of continuing.
Read also:
Before complex calculations… Why Algeria and Austria might not prefer to win?
Concerns for Cape Verde and Curaçao
In contrast, some groups found themselves in a more difficult situation.
In Group V, which includes Cote d’Ivoire, Curaçao and Ecuador, the probability of qualifying for the third-placed teams does not exceed 26.6%, which is the weakest percentage of all groups.
This could make the Curaçao side pay the price for their results in the last round, despite the exceptional levels they showed during the tournament.
Cape Verde are also in danger of being eliminated, as expectations suggest that the third-placed team in Group H has a 34.7% chance of not qualifying.
Although Spain have not yet taken the top spot in the group, the current standings make the third-placed team’s task very difficult, meaning that the Cape Verdean team may have to beat Saudi Arabia and wait for the results of the other groups.
Qualifying percentages of third place finishers by group
Group 12: 96.7%
Group 6: 96.4%
Group 3: 84%
Group 4: 82.2%
Group 10: 79.7%
Group 2: 75.4%
Group 9: 72%
Group 11: 60.8%
7th group: 52.9%
Group 1: 38.7%
Group 8: 34.7%
Group 5: 26.6%
