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The Gulf states should speed up their push to end their defense pact after the US-Israel war on Iran, experts say, as the region grapples with the fallout from the conflict.
Like Tehran and Washington discuss directly long-term cooperation, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – which were defeated by Iran during the war – are expanding their relations amid uncertainty.
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Even before the war, Saudi Arabia signed a security agreement and Pakistan, a partnership that could be extended to other countries in the region.
For years, the Gulf states have been buying defense equipment from other European countries, while maintaining good relations with Russia and China – a strategy that could be fueled by tensions, experts say.
Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, emphasized that the search for new partners is not the goal of replacing the US.
“The goal of countries like Saudi Arabia and regional power is to return to Iran and Israel,” Jacobs Khalaf told Al Jazeera.
“This does not mean that the US will replace Pakistan; it means strengthening relations and establishing platforms such as the so-called quad group of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan.
The invasion of Iran
Since the start of the war on February 28, Iranian attacks have targeted US military bases and other civilian sites, including airports, power plants and hotels in other Gulf countries.
Even when Tehran and Washington arrived memorandum of understanding (MoU) to end the conflict earlier this month, the Iranian military – led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – fired missiles and drones at its targets. Bahrain and Kuwait in conflict with the US.
Besides Iran, many Gulf states also view Israel’s expansionist policies and military campaigns as dangerous, experts say.
Last year, Israel bombed the Qatari capital Doha in an attempt to kill Hamas leaders during the US-backed standoff in Gaza.
President Donald Trump said he was “displeased” with the protests in Qatar – the US’s largest non-NATO ally – and denied any approval or knowledge of the attack.
Jacobs Khalaf said that the decision of the US and Israel to attack Iran and Tehran to retaliate in the Arabian Peninsula, which led to the closure of the Iranian military. Hormuz Rivercreated an “unprecedented security crisis” for GCC members.
“The war between the US and Israel in Iran and its complications in the Gulf states have caused some regions to withdraw from US security,” he told Al Jazeera.
“War on Iran is causing some Gulf states to question the importance of the US as a security guarantor.”
Annelle Sheline, a researcher at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that the GCC countries will focus on “diversifying” their security cooperation and expanding relations with China, Turkey and Europe.
“I suspect that the Gulf wants to maintain its security relationship with the United States, but it will no longer want to be in a position where it is dependent on the United States,” Sheline told Al Jazeera.
He added that the US military in the region had not only shown “unreliability” in preventing an Iranian attack, but “the US military presence in the Gulf countries was different from deterrence. These military bases became targets,” Sheline said.
Establishing an agreement with Iran
Even anger at The invasion of IranThe Gulf states have kept communication channels open with Tehran, even on security matters.
Several GCC countries are moving to improve ties and expand economic ties with their neighbor across the Gulf.
Money may be more of a barrier than equipment, some experts say.
If the economic interests of the Gulf and Iran converge, Tehran may think twice before attacking the region, Sheline explained.
“The Gulf countries should try another way, in which they try to spend a lot of money so that Iran falls in the future by cooperating more with Iran, such as using electricity,” he said.
US Vice President JD Vance mentioned this strategy in a recent interview with UnHerd, stressing that the Gulf countries have welcomed it. in the MOU between Washington and Tehran.
“The Emiratis – who are very hawkish, who are the most allied country with Israel in the (Gulf Cooperation Council) – have unprecedented talks with the Iranian people, including with the IRGC, about different types of economic incentives – ‘This is what we want to see your country invest in’ – and the Iranians will come back, “we will, “we will, “we will” week.
The US-Israeli reckoning
The US itself seems to be at a crossroads with its position in the region.
Last year, Mr. Trump National Security Strategy he confirmed that Washington no longer sees the Middle East as a major political issue, saying that the economy of foreign countries should move from the region to the more difficult areas – namely the Western Hemisphere.
At the same time, the United States has a long-standing political and security commitment to Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused to comply with the MoU’s demands for the region to end the war. including in Lebanon.
Almost immediately after the agreement was signed, pro-Israel allies in Washington, DC, rallied against negotiations and emphasized the need to allow Israel to continue its military operations in Lebanon and the rest of the region.
Trump’s team pushed back against other opposition.
“Israel and the United States, we have many interests, but we also have times when our interests diverge,” Vance told Fox News earlier this month.
However, the Trump administration supported a separate agreement between Lebanon and Israel which gives Israel the right to intervene in Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms, which seems to contradict the first line of the MoU’s call for a ceasefire.
Some of Netanyahu’s right-wing allies have openly opposed the MoU. However, Israel’s prime minister did well in the middle of repeatedly thanking Trump for the war with Iran. I also emphasize that Israel will continue to follow its policies in Lebanon and beyond.
Sheline said that if the ceasefire agreement leads to full cooperation with Iran, the US can withdraw from the Middle East, but Israel can act as a catalyst to continue the conflict and return the US to war in the region.
“The main question is Israel,” he said.
Sheline added that if the US pressures Israel to prevent the Netanyahu government from disrupting the agreement, Washington may return and allow “regional countries to take greater responsibility for their security in a sustainable way”.
In the Gulf, Israel’s military has been a major threat to the Middle East, especially after the attack on Doha in 2025 and the war with Iran.
Jacobs Khalaf said: “Many areas in the Gulf feel threatened by Israel’s deterioration in the region.
“Israel destruction in Gaza since October 7, the expansion and expansion of the Palestinian territories and their invasion of Lebanon and all parts of Syria are threats and unacceptable to all the Gulf countries, even those that have established good relations with Israel.
