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England are within one run of three matches against the top three teams in world football. Which is unprecedented.
Far from being a ‘dead rubber’, this third place play-off is how this World Cup will be remembered – and almost certainly has huge implications for Thomas Tuchel’s future.
Let’s be clear: the FA is still fully behind the England manager, and after the semi-final capitulation to Argentina he said he was “100 per cent” committed to the role up to and including the 2028 European Championships.
But. But. But. Never before have the team been so bitter towards an England boss at a hugely successful World Cup on paper.
Remember, Tuchel’s team went all the way to the semi-finals of a major tournament and only lost to a team that contained the greatest Lionel Messi of all time. A team that has won their last 15 knockout games and claimed the last three major international tournaments they have played in (two Copa Americas and one World Cup).
Despite this, Tuchel has been vilified. He has been roundly criticized from every quarter, including myself, for trying to protect a slim 1-0 lead in Atlanta – and then bringing on a sixth defender in Nico O’Reilly.
All this means England have no out balls and no respite from Messi’s attacks.
To add insult to injury, Tuchel said he had “no regrets” about the decisions he had made and that he felt the problem on the night was a systemic inability to maintain possession of the English players rather than any failure with his tactics.
It was bullish in the extreme, as you might expect from any elite coach who’s backed into a corner and has no room for self-doubt.
But it has become clear to me that it is not just sections of the media and the England support that Tuchel is temporarily alienated. Several players in Tuchel’s squad – some of them seniors – think the head coach got it wrong.
There is sure to be disappointment with their performance. The players themselves know they went too deep and failed to keep the ball effectively after they scored on 17 minutes and before Tuchel made his first substitution.
But the tactical decision has been bewildered by England blowing what one source told me was “their best chance ever” of reaching the World Cup final.
So what now? Does anyone care about the third place playoff in Miami on Saturday? Actually – not so.
France is the number one team in world football. They were the favorites to win the tournament here in the United States and were the most dominant team until they lost to Spain.
Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olis and Ousmane Dembele have some of the best players on the planet right now. If England aren’t at their absolute best for this one, they could end up not just defeated, but embarrassed. If so, where will Tuchel be?
If you look at it positively, this is a huge opportunity for Tuchel and England to make a lasting statement, a huge final scalp that could help reduce the negativity flying around after Atlanta’s semi-final capitulation.
Beating France would mean England achieved their best finish at the World Cup since 1966 and they are likely to move up to third in the FIFA rankings. But on top of that, it would be a huge statement and another demonstration of this squad’s great resilience and character after the disastrous disappointment of crashing out of the tournament.
We have seen that in this World Cup. A brilliant back-to-the-wall, gutsy win at the cacophonous Azteca Stadium as England went down to 10 men and were fighting for their tournament lives. It was considered by many to be England’s best ever performance away from home.
We saw it in the hot-box of Miami in the quarter-finals, where the squad triumphed again after 120 minutes despite a flurry of performances and temperatures that felt like 44C.
Can they pick themselves up once more to go all out against France? Crucially, can Tuchel inspire them to do just that after publicly criticizing their football pedigree and “DNA”?
If not, there will surely be fresh questions in the halls of power at Wembley. Tuchel was appointed as a serial winner, a knockout specialist, the man who finally managed to put a second star on the shirt.
Back-to-back defeats against the two teams ranked first and third in the world won’t reassure anyone that he can do it in the biggest game.
And then come Spain at Wembley in September. The third game in this exciting but brutal trilogy. Depending on what happens in Miami on Saturday night against France, a replay of the Euro 2024 final could be make-or-break for Tuchel.
That’s why this game against France is so far from a meaningless curtain-raiser. This is absolutely crucial for Tuchel’s future and the direction of travel for this England team.
England have lost the bronze-medal match twice before, in 1990 and 2018. They will be desperate to avoid a troublesome hat-trick.