Betting on the Cadillac Championship: Best bets, tips and more

The PGA Tour returns to Trump National Doral’s Blue Monster Course in Miami, a 7,739-yard par-72 that hasn’t hosted a tour event since. Adam Scott Won here in 2016.

16 of 18 holes feature water, five par-4s over 450 yards, four par-5s over 600 yards, and three par-3s over 200 yards.

There isn’t really a soft spot on this course, so the player who wins here drives it long and straight, hits the long irons with laser-point accuracy, and doesn’t flinch on Sunday.

Differences by Draft Kings Sportsbook (with binding) and subject to change.

---

best bet

How to play Scotty Scheffler

Full odds (with ties):

Scheffler is the best player on the field based on pure talent and consistency. He’s top-five, if not top-three, in almost every course-relevant category, putting him in a different stratosphere than everyone else.

A relative weakness is his approach play, which has been shaky for most of the season and ranks 18th in the field. This is the softest part of an otherwise dominant profile. Scheffler’s 200-plus yard band barely cracks the top 60, which maps directly to a course that repeatedly hits that range on par-3s and long par-4s. It’s not enough to fade because his profile is so dominant.

Since February 2025, Scheffler has 18 top-five finishes in 28 events and seven wins, including one in 2026. He finished back-to-back runner-up at the Masters and RBC. (-148) is correctly pricing a player who converts at that rate.

The question is your bankroll risk. The most relevant red flag is a T24 at Bay Hill last month, where Scheffler lost nearly three strokes with his irons, but gained nearly seven at Augusta. That volatility with his irons is a risk, but if you’re making a card, (-148) shouldn’t be considered a value play but a legitimate play. The hit rate justifies the price.

(+310) The practical argument for a top 5 win is that Scheffler’s floor on this course is probably a top 10. He doesn’t blow up. Top 5 pays you to do something consistently, but pays you directly for results that historical data supports at a price the market has set correctly.

Basically, if you pick one, it’s best to bet straight, but the top 5 gives you a cushion. No matter which number you take Scheffler is the most likely to be in contention on Sunday.

Colin Morikawa Top 10 +152 (with ties)

Absolute odds:

Morikawa has the best approach on the field, is elite from tee to green and has a true winning margin. Bermuda putting is the only caveat to confidently back him up straight, but a top 10 doesn’t require the putter to be on — staying neutral can get the job done. If the putting shows up, he can win. A back injury has put me in doubt in recent weeks but back-to-back top-seven finishes have put an end to that. Says his top 5 and absolute odds value. He is arguably the best fit on the course outside of Scheffler.

Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 -110 (with ties)

Absolute odds:

• Top 10 +2200

• Top 5 +495

• +3200 to win

His odds aren’t exciting, but when you’re getting reasonable value for a player who can at least finish in the top 10, it’s worth a look. Matsuyama’s long iron accuracy in key distance bands is among the best on my narrow list of players, and he’s top-10 from 200-plus yards. His Bermuda putting is positive and he is consistent on more difficult courses. The off-the-tee deficit is real (60th), but his approach combined with his putting quality can take some hits.

Every day fantasy plays and fades

Play daily fantasy golf Draft Kings.

by drama

Akshay Bhatia$8,100: He is the most interesting to me this week. He is the second-best iron player in the field, his long par-4 performance a direct match and his Bermuda putting positive to neutral. The only downside is that he is ranked 48th. If he can’t find fairways on the holes, it doesn’t matter how good his irons are if he’s already a step behind.

I say curious because he won at Bay Hill and his top 20 is +135. But he won by nearly 11 strokes with his putting. This is not a repeatable feature. Top 20 is conservative, top 10 is reasonable for his profile ability, and his outright value (+5200) is tempting as the market has buried him at these odds. They say long shot but data says top 5-capable. His ceiling makes him a great DFS option.

faded

Cameron Young $10,200: He needs to win to justify this price. He looks like a fit with really strong approach numbers, but this course repeatedly asks for accuracy from 175 yards. That’s where he falls short. He is out of the top tier by that distance. He’s really good at getting the ball closer to the hole overall, but not from every distance. Further away, he loses his edge.

He can still hit plenty of good shots and get around because the rest of his game is tight, especially on the par-5s, but this setup is designed for players who separate with long irons. If betting on him or playing him in DFS, you’d be asking him to win in the right area, he’s not elite.

Alex Smalley $7,100: Coming off a T14 at Valero and a T2 in the pairing event at the Zurich Classic, Smalley is a long par-4 hitter, top-10 in the field. But everything else is par for the course; He’s outside the top 35 in approach, 68th in long par-5s, a negative Bermuda putter, a negative on par 3s…all of which are far from what’s needed for contention. Par-4 feet alone don’t carry the full workload here. It’s hard to believe him despite his solid results this year.

Gary Woodland $7,400: Woodland will get attention because he won a PGA just a few weeks ago in Houston. He’s tied for eighth off the tee, but everything else is a problem for this course in particular. His irons can be a hit or miss. After losing four consecutive approach strokes, he has now won three of his previous four starts. The course demands elite long iron play and Woodland just doesn’t have it. He is 3 strokes outside the top 50 at over 200 yards. There are three par-3s over 205 yards, which means an almost certain stroke loss within four rounds. Putting negative pressure on this page without approach play to compensate makes it fade.