After Trump’s promise to ‘open up’ China, low expectations for trade | Business and Financial Issues

Ahead of his summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, United States President Donald Trump wanted to set high expectations.

He said he would urge Xi to “open up” China’s economy and announced a delegation of business leaders, including Tesla’s Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, to accompany him.

Recommended Articles

list of 4 itemsend of series

As Trump and Xi prepare to wrap up two days of meetings on Friday, expectations for the outcome of their meeting among observers are generally very low.

Although Trump and Xi are expected to extend a one-year truce in their trade war that was agreed in South Korea in October, hopes are for stability – not renewal – in the relationship between the world’s two largest economies, which have been locked in a dispute that includes everything from trade and artificial intelligence to Taiwan.

“It’s important to have a good understanding of the current state of the relationship,” Claire E Reade, Arnold & Porter’s senior counsel who previously worked in China at the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), told Al Jazeera.

“China does not trust the US, and China wants to beat the US in what it sees as a long-term global competitor,” Reade said.

“This reduces the potential for compromise.”

Although Trump and Xi have not announced the finalization of any trade agreement, the US side has announced various business deals that are expected.

In an interview with Fox News that was released on Thursday, Trump said that China will invest “hundreds of billions of dollars” in companies controlled by CEOs in its delegation, without providing details.

Trump administration officials have also said that China is ready to increase its purchases of US agricultural and energy products, order more Boeing planes, and work to establish a “Board of Investment” between the parties.

“The real ‘opening’ of China’s market would focus on sectors where economic demand is most evident,” Taiyi Sun, an associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, told Al Jazeera.

“Agricultural commodities such as soybeans and beef, as well as high-value manufactured goods such as Boeing airplanes, are natural areas to expand because they match Chinese demand and American export strength.”

Sun said a “gradual” opening of US companies in sectors such as financial services is also possible.

“But these areas are very sensitive to politics and institutions within China, so progress needs to be faster rather than faster,” he said.

Gabriel Wildau, senior vice president at global business consulting firm Teneo, said both sides are seeking to address the Internet challenges revealed by their trade war.

“The Iran war may have increased the risk of the US sending supplies to countries in need, because of the need to rebuild weapons that were destroyed in the war,” Wildau told Al Jazeera.

“So Washington will be willing to offer tariff support — or guarantees not to impose new tariffs — in exchange for Beijing’s commitment to keep foreign affairs in check.”

While Trump and Xi agreed to roll back some trade barriers at their summit in South Korea, US-China business and trade remained strained after a decade of economic tensions between the two sides.

The average U.S. investment in China’s economy reached 47.5 percent after the South Korean summit, up from 3.1 percent before Trump’s first term, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

China’s investment in the US economy rose 31.9 percent, up from 8.4 percent in 2018, according to the think tank.

Two-way goods trade was estimated at $415bn in 2025, down significantly from the 2022 peak of $690bn.

Carsten Holz, an expert on China’s economy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said China has less incentive for the US than before to increase its domestic industries.

“In many industries, PRC (People’s Republic of China) companies hold leading positions,” Holz told Al Jazeera.

“As a result, the PRC economy will have little to gain from opening up to the US and may only provide a symbolic representation.”

Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said the same thing about the limits of US power.

“Basically, Trump hopes that China will buy more goods from America and allow US companies to operate freely in China,” Elms told Al Jazeera.

“What are they offering?” Elms said. “Very little, especially because Trump sees the relationship between the two countries as one where the US has been fair and China has not.”

Mr. Reade, a former USTR official, said Xi would not accept anything that would “harm China’s interests in any way.”

“Instead, China can give the US ‘gifts’ without value. For example, it will take short-term measures to remove barriers to beef trade. It can buy the US products it needs,” Reade said.

“If it allows the purchase of US technology, it will only be because it is needed at the moment,” he added, “But this does not affect China’s plans to end its dependence on US technology in the long run.”