Fantasy Baseball: Put your faith in better-than-expected pitchers

most experienced Fantasy baseball Managers understand the difference between surface stats and underlying metrics and how production is not always an accurate reflection of a player’s true performance.

Identifying players whose fortunes have changed, for better or worse, is perhaps an obvious one to follow a month into the season. However, this level of player evaluation focuses more on luck than skill. A simple analysis finds that a pitcher can’t continue to carry such a low BABIP, so you’d expect him to start yielding more hits. There was a time when it was considered a next-level approach, but now it’s mainstream.

A more advanced exploration would be to explore how much a given player’s skills have changed from pre-season expectations. This is nothing new, as fantasy analysts have been going down this road for over 20 years. However, with the accessibility of newfangled metrics, mostly courtesy of Statcast, we should have a more faithful understanding of a player’s skill set and, therefore, a better idea of ​​future performance. In other words, we’re in the season where it’s not reasonable to factor these changes into our player evaluations.

Here are five starting pitchers for whom I’ve compared preseason expectations to their 2026 performance and see those better days likely to continue.

Randy Vasquez, San Diego Padres

Heading into the season, Vasquez’s fantasy role was as a streamer, especially for favorable home dates at Petco Park. His modest strikeout rate was detrimental in leagues with limited starts or innings. He is still not dominant, but his strikeout rate has improved to a level where he can be used for almost all of his outings.

Vasquez turned heads in the spring with a significant increase in his four-seam fastball velocity. That didn’t happen by accident, as he underwent an offseason program designed to add strength and improve velocity, in part. U Dervish.

The club also worked to redistribute its pitch mix to take advantage of the extra pace. Vasquez is throwing significantly more rising fastballs and a few extra cutters while cutting his sinker and slider. His strikeout rate has been around 14% since 2024-25, but is now up to 22.4%, likely to increase as he continues to refine his repertoire. Not only does the added velocity make his fastball more effective, but the extra isolation his secondary offers benefits them as well.

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardian

Williams’ early success is driven by many luck-related metrics that can regress, and his walk rate is still elevated. That said, he’s showing considerable improvement elsewhere, so with his .231 BABIP and 82.2% left-on-base rate likely to normalize, he’ll still be an improved pitcher, even with that average walk rate.

The point of this analysis is that his 2025 3.06 ERA was a mirage, as evidenced by predictors who were at least one run higher. His 2026 projection was closer to 4.00. However, I now see him as a better than 4.00 guy, but probably a bit worse than his current 3.28 ERA.

Keep in mind that the Guardians have developed a reputation for working with their pitchers to optimize effectiveness, and Williams is throwing fewer four-seamers and cutters to increase his use of sinkers and sliders. His staff and location metrics have improved greatly, and both his swing-strike and call-strike rates are career highs. He’s also more pitch-efficient, though some of that is due to a lower BABIP.

The expectation is that Williams will maintain these improvements, so even if she is subject to regression, the landing point is better than heading into the season.

Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

For years, the question has been, “Imagine what Soriano could do if healthy?” Well, last season, he set career highs with 31 starts and 169 IP, posting a 4.26 ERA and an improved 1.40 WHIP. As an extreme ground ball pitcher, his .306 BABIP wasn’t out of line with expectations, but his 10.8% walk rate was unexpectedly high, especially considering he’s prone to yielding a lot of hits. However, a low 67.8% left-on-base mark inflated his ERA, with prognosticators pointing to the 3.50-3.90 range.

So far in 2026, Soriano is sporting a much higher strikeout rate and, while his walks continue, they drop a tick. To be fair, his .250 BABIP and especially his 95.5% left-on-base rate are both candidates for regression, but he shows cause for optimism when things settle down.

Soriano has also tweaked his arsenal, increasing his four-seamer and splitter deployment, relying much less on his sinker. The introduction of a few swing-and-miss pitches increased his strikeout rate by eight points, while he remained a ground ball pitcher. His things are unchanged, but his position has improved.

Soriano’s WHIP will likely limit his fantasy value and his current 1.76 ERA is artificially low. Even so, maintaining his current improvements could result in, at best, a near-elite ERA and strikeout rate and, at minimum, much better end-of-season projected results.

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Last season, Warren led all rookie pitchers in strikeouts, but his control was spotty. The Yankees worked with him in the offseason, resulting in fewer walks. In 2025, he issued a free pass 9.1% of the time, but now that’s down to just 6.3%.

The primary change was in his approach. Warren could throw his four-seamer for strikes, but he was wild with both his sweeper and sinker, which scored more runs than the usual two-seamer. He still throws all of his pitches at about the same rate, but the club focuses on heat Warren early in the count, then tries to chase with his other offers. Also, the Yankees worked to clean up his delivery, so there’s less body movement and better tunneling.

Overall, the results have been great, although he stumbled in his latest outing. That said, he’s in his second full season and that’s going to happen on occasion.

A refined approach and more consistent mechanics are enough to raise expectations in a tough AL East. However, it should be noted that Warren will continue to have limited walks as there will soon be a logjam in the Yankees rotation. when Gerrit Cole And Carlos Rodon back someone The roles will change, unless the club chooses to go to a six-man rotation.

Max Fried, Cam Slitler, Ryan Weathers and Warren are all eligible to pitch every fifth game. Most think the weather will eventually freak people out. Rodon will be back this weekend, and he will replace Elmer Rodriguez. Once Cole returns, manager Aaron Boone must make tough decisions.

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

Bradley was a top prospect in the minors, but he has yet to show that kind of form so far this season. Some talent evaluators felt that Bradley had the speed and position to handle minor league hitters.

He has shown good things in the majors since his 2023 debut, but batters have adjusted. This season, Bradley is throwing from a lower arm angle, adding deception to his fastball in the zone, and he’s swinging and missing more. He’s also showing natural growth in his secondary, with all four of his pitches now above average offerings.

His position is still a work in progress, but when you’re working with four plus-pitches and have shown the ability to adjust, improved control should follow. Better control not only leads to fewer walks, it also increases strikeouts.