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La Liga (21.781) sat in second place heading into the second leg of the Europa League and Conference League semi-finals on Thursday.
The Bundesliga (21.357) is just 0.424 points behind. In real terms, it’s a win and a draw.
Going into Thursday’s game, each league has one team remaining – Freiburg for Germany and Rayo Vallecano for Spain.
Freiburg must overcome a 2-1 deficit at home to Braga, while Rayo Vallecano lead 1-0 away to Strasbourg.
That’s how Kane’s goal could help decide.
If Freiburg beat Braga to reach the final, they will add 0.428 to Germany’s score.
And if Rayo Vallecano loses in France, La Liga will score nothing and it will be unable to finish above the Bundesliga.
In this scenario, Germany would secure second place by just 0.00446 of a coefficient point.
Without Kane’s goal, Germany would have been 0.13889 behind Spain.
There are a few more scenarios for Thursday’s EPS.
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If Rayo Vallecano wins, Spain will secure the extra place regardless of Freiburg’s result
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If both teams go out, Spain will get an extra place
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If both go through to the Rayo Vallecano draw, it moves on to the final
In Germany, a three-team battle for fourth place between Bayer Leverkusen, Stuttgart and Hoffenheim. All three are on 58 points with two matches remaining. Without EPS, only one can make it to the Champions League.
La Liga has a clear picture, with Real Betis finding themselves in fifth place, six points ahead of Celta Vigo with four matches to play.
