NBA Playoffs 2026: Ranking Each Team After Conference Semifinal Game 1s

All four NBA Conference Semifinals Following a tumultuous first round that featured three Game 7s, two huge upsets and some key injuries.

With eight teams vying for the Larry O’Brien Trophy, this is a perfect opportunity to take stock of the field as it currently stands and rank those contenders based on their likelihood of bringing home their hardware when the season is all said and done.

Here’s our take on the pros and cons for each of the eight teams as the second round is now a game across the board.

(Note: 2026 NBA title odds courtesy of ESPN Analytics.)

First Round: PHX, defeated 4-0
Conf. cm: Lead LAL, 1-0
2026 NBA Title Odds: 48.8%

Suit for:

What about championship experience, day depth, a ferocious defense, a potential two-time MVP and home-court advantage throughout the rest of the playoffs? The team in the best position since OKC Golden State Warriors to chase a repeat title in 2017-18. Thunder can play big, too Chet Holmgren And Isaiah Hartenstein Up front they play small, with a formidable fleet of guards wreaking havoc both in half-court defense and when they force turnovers in transition. And in Mark Daigno they have a coach who isn’t afraid to experiment with lineups throughout the playoff series.

Case against:

That 7-foot-4 game-plan wrecker Victor Wembanyama And his teammates down Interstate 35. San Antonio has won four of five meetings with OKC this season, displaying a length and athleticism that could give the Thunder problems. But if OKC can survive a San Antonio matchup — heavyweight West finals potential took a small hit when the Spurs dropped Game 1 against the Timberwolves on Monday — nothing beyond catastrophic injury luck should stand in the way of a Thunder repeat.

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First Round: POR, defeated 4-1
Conf. cm: Trail MIN, 1-0
2026 NBA Title Odds: 13.5%

Suit for:

Who says young Spurs have to fall flat before success? Wembanyama did just that and bounced back after the game’s absence, returning with the same ferocious energy he had displayed throughout the season. The Trail Blazers tried to get physical on Wembaniyama in the first round, but despite missing Game 2 and most of Game 3 with an injury, he shut it down and tallied four blocks. and with Stephen Castle As a budding third scorer boasting 43.8% shooting from 3, why can’t the Spurs skip a few steps? Yes, short-handed Minnesota shocked many by stealing Monday’s Game 1, but it will take much longer to dislodge San Antonio from this spot.

Case against:

Champs are champs until someone knocks them, and if Thunder Guard Jalen Williams Healthy, throw the Spurs-Thunder showdowns from earlier this season out the window But the shooting of San Antonio can be held? Minnesota’s defense is suffocating Denver Nuggets To the tune of 30% from the 3-point line in the first round, and the Timberwolves were held to just 28% (10-for-36) from 3 on Monday, Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox Integrating for a 0-for-12 night. Allowed just 34% in the first round against Oklahoma City Phoenix Suns. The Spurs don’t rely heavily on the 3-point shot, but it has become a draw that has helped their resurgence all season.

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First Round: ATL lost 4-2
Conf. cm: Lead PHI, 1-0
2026 NBA Title Odds: 19.3%

Suit for:

The Knicks won the last three all season Atlanta Hawks. And while defending the way they did in Game 6 isn’t sustainable, the series opener against Philadelphia showed it can go forward.

Offensively, if and Anunobi Can keep up the scoring streak — he’s gone 23-30 from the field in his past three games — and Karl-Anthony Towns Truly unlocked, New York will be in the driver’s seat among the East’s Final Four teams.

Case against:

matchup Could Philadelphia, who adjusted well after a Game 1 rout against Boston, be the Knicks’ kryptonite? Joel Embiid And Tyrese Maxey Can catch fire and change New York’s defense. If nothing else, the Knicks were built to beat Boston in these playoffs. That major roadblock has been removed, but Philadelphia remains a bit of a wild card, particularly in dynamic maxi-VJ Edgecomb Backcourt New York can’t hide Jalen Brunson All series long on defense or a potential East Finals showdown with Detroit.

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First Round: Defeated ORL, 4-3
Conf. cm: Lead CLE, 1-0
2026 NBA Title Odds: 17.2%

Suit for:

Including the Pistons, six of the top eight teams in defensive rating are in the conference semifinals, and only Oklahoma City is better than Detroit. Cade Cunningham His All-NBA game finding in the Orlando series showed he can process quickly, adjust and embrace the moment. Auser Thompson Also turning into a generational defender during these playoffs. The toughest physical matchup Detroit will face if Orlando? And if this version Tobias Harris — The veteran forward averaged 21.6 points in the first round, eight more than in the regular season — sticking around for May and June, Detroit could bully its way through the next six weeks.

Case against:

The Pistons are here, but the first four games against Orlando are hard to forget. Shooting below 3 to 30%, with sharpshooters Duncan Robinson Not being able to create space for quality looks and also being targeted in defense was not a pretty sight. Having Cunningham as a proven scorer could catch them, especially if center Jalen DurenIts offense never rebounded after scoring just 10.6 points in the first round. Meanwhile, Cunningham is still recovering from a punctured lung. A lot needs to line up for Detroit to make the Finals. The slightest slip can spell doom.

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First Round: DEN, defeated 4-2
Conf. cm: Lead SA, 1-0
2026 NBA Title Odds: 0.4%

Suit for:

Minnesota’s dramatic win over Denver in Game 6 proved that the Timberwolves are incredibly resilient. Rudy Gobert Perhaps the best series of his Hall of Fame career is coming off, cutting down the three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. If there’s anyone who can give Wembanyama a battle in the paint, it’s Gobert, the four-time Defensive Player of the Year. Anthony EdwardsMeanwhile, played clutch minutes in Game 1 after a stunningly quick return from a hyperextended knee sustained in the last round. The Wolves also have back-to-back conference finals appearances the past two years. Their second-round opponent San Antonio is certainly feeling that disadvantage after dropping Game 1 at home.

Case against:

The Wolves, despite stealing Game 1, would be ranked higher if they had fewer injuries. Edwards returned in Game 1, but was a first-round standout Come on Dosunmu A calf remains away by strain, and Donte DiVincenzo Out for the postseason with a torn right Achilles. Although Minnesota won Game 1 behind some incredible play down the stretch, holding on for the entire series is a tall order against Wembanyama and a deep, athletic Spurs guard rotation.

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First Round: BOS defeated, 4-3
Conf. cm: Trail NYK, 1-0
2026 NBA Title Odds: 0.1%

Suit for:

The 76ers are the ultimate turnaround team. When fully healthy and functional — not counting Monday’s Game 1 drubbing in New York — Philly had an incredibly high ceiling. Maxey and Embiid’s pick-and-roll combination is a handful to stop any team. Paul George Looking like he’s back to his All-Star form, Edgecombe continues to prove he’s not afraid of big moments, and Kelly Oubre Jr. And Quentin Grimes Combined to give Philadelphia 48 quality minutes per game. There aren’t many teams that have that much talent and versatility on paper. The 76ers also have Nick Nurse, the only championship-winning coach, and OKC’s Daigneault remaining on the field.

case against:

Where to start? Most obvious is the poor health of Philadelphia’s stars. Can Embiid and George be healthy in the next six weeks? History will show that this is a tricky proposition. That’s especially true for Embiid, who is less than a month removed from an emergency appendectomy, the latest health issue to impact a postseason for the former MVP.

And often in the team’s past few postseasons, they’ve fallen down in big situations. Game 7 in Boston almost became the latest example, when an 18-point, late third-quarter lead nearly evaporated.

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First Round: Defeated TOR, 4-3
Conf. cm: Trail that, 1-0
2026 NBA Title Odds: 0.4%

Suit for:

Cleveland’s roster was built for playoff success. In James Harden And Donovan MitchellThe Cavs have an explosive backcourt capable of big games. In Evan Mobley And Jarrett AllenThe Cavs have two versatile big men who can handle a variety of defensive duties and provide enough offense to complement the guards. And Sam Merrill, Max Strauss And Dean Wade Wade can slot into the court as a solid defender against opposing big wings.

Case against:

The Cavs are on a seven-game winning streak against the short-handed Toronto Raptors — Brandon Ingram Final two-plus games and Emmanuel Quickley Didn’t play at all — Harden and Mitchell struggled a lot as the series progressed. Now, Detroit presents a level of physicality that Cleveland has struggled with. The Cavs have a conference championship ceiling, but right now it’s hard to believe they’ll reach it. That remains the case after a rough performance in Game 1 where Cleveland had a chance to steal the game after trailing for everything, only to falter in the final minute after tying the score with five minutes remaining.

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First Round: Defeated HOU, 4-2
Conf. cm: Trail OKC, 1-0
2026 NBA Title Odds: 0.3%

Suit for:

LeBron James Having defied every expectation at this stage of his career, why couldn’t he conquer this mountain? Or at least long enough to keep the Lakers upright Austin Reeves Fully restored and for Luka Doncic Inches closer to returning from his hamstring injury? They were a strong team against them Houston Rockets And executed late in games to continue their season-long prowess in the clutch. If the first round is 3 rounds of shooting Marcus is smart, Luke Kennard And Rui Hashimura With carries (all 40% or better), it gives Lakers drivers plenty of room. It would also give some hope to a LeBron-led playoff team.

Case against:

They’re playing “Monsters” — and not the rebooted version. The Thunder are rested, and presumably, healthy with Jalen Williams healthy. Asking James to repeat his first-round performance against a Thunder team that can hardly beat itself seems a bit unlikely. The Thunder have dominated the matchup against the Lakers, and even if a miracle happens, the Spurs are waiting. Common sense says LA’s run is over here.