If the US pushes the leaders of Lebanon and Israel to meet, it could lead to conflict Israel attacks Lebanon News

Beirut, Lebanon – As the war rages in southern Lebanon, pressure is mounting on President Joseph Aoun to meet directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which could spark internal conflicts in the country.

Although a date has not been set, Lebanon’s Aoun is expected to visit the White House later in May, a month after Israel and Lebanon’s first visit. direct discussion In a few decades, it has divided the people of Lebanon.

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The decision to seek direct talks with Israel angered Hezbollah, a political and military group backed by Iran. Hezbollah wants an end to the war, but prefers direct negotiations to achieve that goal, as well as the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon.

Analysts told Al Jazeera that internal conflicts in Lebanon mean there is no chance of Aoun meeting Netanyahu in Washington, as such a meeting would not have widespread support in Lebanon.

“The push for the Aoun-Netanyahu summit is being driven by the calendar and by Washington’s desire for transparency,” Dania Arayssi, senior analyst at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, told Al Jazeera. “The April 26 ceasefire expires on May 17, the US embassy in Beirut has now publicly announced American support for the ongoing summit, and the Trump administration is looking for a blueprint for the Abraham Accords that makes Lebanon the next domino after Iran stops fighting.”

Israel’s distractions

Israel began its war in Lebanon in October 2023, the day after the start of the war in Gaza. A ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah in November 2024, but Israel continued to attack Lebanon periodically, violating the ceasefire more than 10,000 times in 15 months.

Hezbollah finally responded on March 2, following the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei two days earlier.

Israel occupied Lebanon, where it systematically destroyed towns and villages in the south, and since March 2, its offensive has killed nearly 2,700 people, including more than 100 health workers. More than 1.2 million people have fled their homes as a result of the Israeli offensive, and evacuation orders continue.

Despite the ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump on April 16, Israel and Hezbollah have continued to fight, especially in the Lebanese territory occupied by Israel.

In order to end the war and end Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon, the Lebanese government has agreed to lead talks with the Israeli government, with the US acting as mediator – but the talks have been between the Israeli and Lebanese diplomats in the US, not senior officials.

For their part, the Israelis say they want the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah so that the northern cities of Israel can be protected from violence.

Some in the Lebanese government say their efforts to disarm Hezbollah have been thwarted by Israel’s violation of anti-insurgency laws in Lebanon. Government of Lebanon declared Hezbollah’s military activities illegal on March 2.

Israel has tried to do so activate existing sects in Lebanon during their attacks this year, little by little trying to do so to cause conflict between the Shia community in Lebanon, which Hezbollah supports heavily, and other religions.

The sectarian conflict has been on the rise of late. On one occasion, Lebanese television played cartoons mocking Hezbollah fighters and their leader Naim Qassem as characters from the video game “Angry Birds”. Some Hezbollah supporters responded by sharing images mocking the Maronite Christian parent.

For Aoun – a Maronite Christian – to shake hands with Netanyahu, the man who recently posted a video The destruction caused by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon, can be interpreted as another provocation of the Lebanese masses, the researchers said.

“Seeing President Aoun shaking hands with Netanyahu would have negative consequences for Lebanon,” Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident of the Atlantic Council and author of a book on Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.

There is no regional support

The chances of such a meeting seem to be diminishing, however.

For his part, Aoun has said that this is not the right time to meet with Netanyahu.

“We must first achieve a security agreement and stop Israeli attacks before we talk about a meeting between us,” the Lebanese president said on Monday.

At home, the story has little support. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a trusted ally of Hezbollah, said talks with Israel cannot begin before the end of the war, while Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said Lebanon cannot negotiate while it is under fire.

“Aoun’s skepticism shows that he does not have the domestic consensus necessary to hold a presidential meeting while Israel still holds positions inside Lebanon, while the attacks continue, and while a million people are fleeing their homes,” Arayssi said.

The situation would have been different “if the end of the war had been successful and if the destructive images had not continued, including the destruction of churches and Christian communities”, Nadim Houry of the Paris-based Arab Reform Initiative said.

But without a major deal, Houry said he did not believe Aoun would agree to meet with Netanyahu.

“Aoun does not have clear regional support, and it is not only Hezbollah that is opposed,” Houry told Al Jazeera. “I don’t see (Aoun) killing himself politically at this time when there is nothing to be given to him. The conditions are not there.”

The push, however, seems to be coming from the US side, where, despite having started a war with Iran that has affected a good part of the region, Trump has always cited his credentials as a peacemaker.

“The Trump administration is in danger of moving too fast to try to protect the image of President Aoun meeting with Netanyahu and shaking hands at the White House,” Blanford said. “The American people need to sing a little more about this. They need to understand the real problems in Lebanon. And visuals are important.”

Recently, the US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa was asked about a direct meeting between Aoun and Netanyahu, he refused to be involved in the matter. Issa said he felt it would be beneficial for Aoun to explain what he wanted and for Netanyahu to listen.

Analysts said, however, that some in the US administration recognize the interest in forcing such a meeting between Israel and Lebanon.

“Some people in the US government realize that such a meeting will destabilize the country of Lebanon, and they realize that it is not a good idea to have it now, considering what is happening, the attacks and the destruction in Lebanon,” Houry said.

There is no Saudi support to meet

Lack of support for such a move is not only at home, but also in communities.

Saudi Arabian officials have held meetings in recent weeks with Aoun and Berri, in an attempt to find a compromise between the Lebanese people and a united Lebanese state. Saudi Arabia has tried to bring Lebanon into line with the majority of the Arab world without changing relations with Israel until a clear path to a Palestinian state is established.

“Saudi Arabia and others in the Arab region are not very interested in (a direct meeting between the leaders) right now,” Houry said. “They really want to stop it in Lebanon, but they don’t want Lebanon to go directly to talks with Israel through a meeting between Benjamin Netanyahu and Joseph Aoun while they are against them.”

Ultimately, Houry and others said domestic and regional developments are pushing for a direct meeting that could lead to internal conflicts in Lebanon. Any such meeting can be held after solving several reasons.

“It’s a reflection of multiple teams,” Houry said. “I don’t see how Aoun will meet Netanyahu one-on-one at this point.”