Why limiting war with the US might benefit Iran more than peace.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other oil and gas exporting countries in the region may gradually resume normal exports while Iran remains economically isolated.

A certain conflict could change this landscape for Iran. While Iran is paying a high military and economic price, the blockade of the Hormuz coast and pressure from the Houthis around Bab al-Mandab continue to affect international shipping, insurance costs and energy markets. Even limited uncertainty forces governments, shipowners and importers to pay attention to Iran’s demands.

Realistically, Tehran may still believe it has the capacity.

Iran also seems to be trying to change the diplomatic conversation. Instead of accepting unrestricted freedom of navigation, it has repeatedly stated that shipping must operate under laws agreed upon or administered by Iran. If that interpretation is correct, Tehran’s intention to open the Gulf of Hormuz in the future may reflect Iranian influence rather than a return to pre-war conditions. A sustained, limited conflict would allow Iran to continue its pressure to achieve this goal.

In Tehran’s view, keeping the crisis below the threshold of war may be preferable to accepting a cease-fire agreement that waives sanctions.

Home calculations are also possible. Iran is experiencing high inflation, unemployment, economic hardship and public discontent. In times of external conflict, governments find it easier to suppress internal dissent, enforce stricter security measures, and mobilize support around national defense. This will not eliminate Iran’s economic problems, but it may reduce the immediate political pressure on them.