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Sanaa, Yemen The past few days have seen the mobilization of Yemen’s Houthi forces in areas under their control and the resumption of all possible hostilities after four years of peace.
On Wednesday, the Houthis claimed responsibility for the missile and drone attacks two Saudis ships on the Red Sea, which the rebels said refused to blockade the kingdom’s ports.
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At the same time, clashes between Houthi fighters and forces allied with the Yemeni government broke out on the frontline in the southwestern region of Dhale, resulting in more than 30 casualties on both sides.
With recent developments, the Houthis have moved from rhetoric and mobilization to war. After years of military success, the Houthis now want to pursue military rule on the ground against their enemies, especially groups loyal to the popular Yemeni government.
The Houthis are self-reliant. They have withstood attacks from the government, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel over the past decade and continue to hold sway in northwestern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa.
But such confidence may be misplaced as a number of factors have changed over the past four years – including the rise of anti-Houthi militias led by the government.
Although experts say the Houthis are still a powerful player in Yemen with an army and the power they have, the situation has undoubtedly changed. This would make the resumption of hostilities difficult for the Houthis for many reasons.
More unity, less division
In September 2014, the Houthis took over Sanaa and, amid weak military resistance and deep divisions, pushed deeper into parts of Yemen.
The massive expansion of the Houthis left the government divided and fragile, and due to the looming threat from the rebels, many political leaders, including President Abd-Rabu Mansour Hadi, fled Yemen for safety abroadespecially in Saudi Arabia.
In March 2015, the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia they contacted each other The war in support of the Yemeni government and was still involved until the end of April 2022.
Yet several years of war have not weakened the Houthis’ purpose or changed their gains. The conflicting policies members of the Arab League, especially the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, along with to fight within the Yemeni government camp, it helped the Houthis remain victorious over their enemies.
Late last year, the Yemeni government he ordered The UAE’s expulsion from Yemen comes as Saudi Arabia has provided military aid to defeat Abu Dhabi’s ally in the south, the separatist Southern Transitional Council. All this has made the government run better than other times during the war.
Ahmed Nagi, the chief researcher on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that a broad consensus within the Yemeni government camp could lead to the war leaving the Houthis.
“We have already started to see some of these things. Compared to the beginning of this year, the Presidential Council (the official authority of the UN in Yemen) is not divided, and decision-making seems to be more unified,” said Nagi.
“Saudi Arabia has also become a major regional leader on the ground, working closely with various anti-Houthi groups,” he added. “This puts the Yemeni government in a better position than before and could make things difficult for the Houthis.”
“But the results will depend on how the conflict is used. If the Yemeni government approaches the war against the Houthis differently, and better cooperates with the joint plan, it can focus on the Houthis and change the balance of power on the ground,” said Nagi.
Marwan Ali Noman, director of the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies, told Al Jazeera that the start of the Houthi coalition in al-Jawf in northern Yemen east of Sanaa could be a major problem for the rebels. Military cooperation behind the government and growing international concern over Red Sea security – especially after the Houthis threatened to send ships into the Bab al-Mandeb river – have both strengthened the position of anti-Houthi forces, he said.
“(These developments) could improve the (anti-Houthi forces’) ability to gain regional advantage if the recent escalation turns into any kind of conflict,” Noman told Al Jazeera.
The Houthis continue to have a strong military base, especially in terms of missiles and drones, but after the UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen, the government’s forces have gained political cooperation, military planning and foreign aid, he added.
A new regional agreement
The Houthis have them he started attacks on ships in the Red Sea before, especially on US- and Israel-allied ships from 2023 to 2025. They acted in cooperation with the Palestinian people after the beginning of the Israeli war in Gaza.
In retaliation, Israel, the US and the UK have launched hundreds of airstrikes on what they say are Houthi positions in Yemen. In May 2025, the Houthis suspended their airstrikes after achieving agreement and the US.
Yazeed al-Jeddawy, director of research at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera that if the latest Houthi attacks turn into a campaign against Saudi-linked merchant ships, the response may be different this time.
“It can speed up the establishment of a new regional agreement to protect the maritime population, especially because negotiations have progressed between several regional countries with the support of other international organizations,” said al-Jeddawy. “It could also include significant support for local armed forces, who will use the quiet period from 2022 to rebuild, restore and strengthen their positions.”
US President Donald Trump he warned There will be “major military sanctions” against Iran and the Houthis after the Yemeni militia attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Wednesday.
“If they do this again, the US will be responsible for Iran, because the Houthis are a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran,” Trump wrote in his post on the Truth Social platform.
For their part, the Houthis are betting that Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region will not be ready to fight against the terrorists in their region and instead they want to cooperate quickly instead of continuing to fight.
An unprecedented challenge
Hamad al-Hazmi, the leader of the al-Jawf tribe, was detained in Sanaa for 50 days after clashes with the Houthis. When he was released at the end of June, he returned to his tribe in al-Jawf and spoke publicly about what he described as the injustices he had been treated in prison.
In response, thousands of tribesmen from different provinces gathered in al-Jawf this month and publicly criticized Houthi officials.
Fuad Mussed, a Yemeni writer who focuses on Yemen’s political and military affairs, said the opposition to the Houthis represents a major development in the war.
“In my opinion, for the first time, the tribes are rising in this kind of unity despite the division and disunity they faced in the past years of war,” Mussed told Al Jazeera.
The anti-Houthi alliance in al-Jawf, Mussed added, could provide vital support to the government’s military operations if fighting resumes.
However, al-Jeddawy said, this would depend on the nature of the alliance and whether it would be compatible with the government forces.
“The Houthis have not faced such difficulties since the early years of the war when they were able to take over the forces and officers loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh” from 2014 to 2017, al-Jeddawy said.
The Houthi-allied forces are made up of more than 200,000 fighters, according to the official. documents in Sanaa, where the group could invite thousands more to fight in areas it controls.
Although recent months have seen significant developments in favor of the government, al-Jeddawy noted that there has been no significant change in the balance of power in Yemen. This would depend on the Yemeni government and the anti-Houthi militias to coordinate their decisions, coordinate multiple sectors and gain sustained regional support.
“The Houthis have important advantages: coordinated control and control, with missiles, fortified positions and military capabilities,” he said.
“(Anti-Houthi forces) are in a stronger position than they were at the beginning of 2022, but the interpretation of this change as a positive change is not certain.”
