What are the security implications of the US-Saudi nuclear deal? | | Powerful Stories

United States President Donald Trump signed a 30-year deal with Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to signal Washington’s transfer of nuclear technology to the Gulf kingdom.

This has raised concerns that if the deal goes through, it could spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East amid reports that Riyadh will be able to enrich its uranium, a key step in acquiring nuclear weapons.

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US officials have insisted that the proposed deal will cover conventional nuclear projects, although details of the deal have not been made public.

It has now been submitted to the US Congress for review, but is expected to survive opposition from Democrats.

Here’s why some are worried about the deal:

Could this lead to a nuclear arms race in the region?

Analysts have raised concerns about whether the proposed deal could lead to Saudi Arabia seeking to produce uranium for military purposes, something the US Department of Energy has yet to confirm.

Some experts have warned that this could open the door to an arms race with other countries in the region.

Saudi Arabia has long said it wants to use nuclear power to generate electricity, but in 2018, de facto leader Mohammad bin Salman told CBS that Riyadh would “undoubtedly” develop a nuclear weapon if Iran did the same.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted on Thursday that the deal would not lead to an increase in nuclear weapons, as US contractors would run the project, leaving Washington to review it. US nuclear manufacturer Westinghouse is believed to be the prime contractor.

Former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said in a letter on X Wednesday that Israel must oppose the deal with “all our strength.”

“We must all understand that Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program will end with nuclear weapons and cause a mad race in the Middle East,” he said.

Israel, which developed nuclear weapons in the 1960s, has sought to prevent Arab and other regional countries from acquiring weapons of their own.

Is there a threat of a nuclear attack in the strike?

Some have also expressed concerns about nuclear disarmament amid tensions in the Middle East.

Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, for example, has seen its foreign weapons hit by the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Iran has also done so hit the edge of the Barakah nuclear power plant of the United Arab Emirates the plant is being attacked by a drone.

None of these demonstrations involved nuclear weapons, but experts say allowing such a facility in the Middle East where tensions are so high is a mistake.

A meltdown in the reactor core can release highly toxic fumes, which could cause a catastrophic accident within a radius of 20 to 30 kilometers (12 to 18 miles).

Nuclear accidents at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant in 2011 and Chornobyl in Ukraine in the former Soviet Union in 1986 are cautionary tales.

Could Saudi Arabia be in trouble?

This is unknown at this time.

Highly enriched uranium and spent nuclear fuel are essential for nuclear bombs.

According to US media, the deal includes a clause providing for a “black box” uranium enrichment facility that would be located in Saudi Arabia but controlled by US companies.

A joint study by the two countries, which will last two years, will determine whether such a facility is needed, or whether Saudi Arabia should import commercial heavy uranium.

“That’s the problem,” Matthew Kroenig, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera, saying there was no such system anywhere else in the world.

“What exactly does the US mean by ‘black box’? So will the US bring its experts there all the time, forever? Of course, the Saudis will be affected, they will learn about the technology, and they may chase the US in the future,” said Kroenig.

Washington may seek an example from Moscow’s cooperation with Turkey and Egypt, where Russian contractors manage nuclear power plants, including the essential uranium and high-burning fuel that wastes oil from power plants.

The difference, Kroenig said, is that Russia does not enrich uranium in those circumstances.

On the other hand, the UAE, which runs a civilian nuclear program that has long been used as the gold standard of non-proliferation, exports all of its depleted uranium from France, the United Kingdom and Russia among other countries.

Kroenig suggested that the US could use the two-year probe as a bargaining chip, noting that the same concerns have been used to block South Korea’s requests to enrich its uranium.

“The agreement does not immediately mention uranium enrichment, so my hope is that this is a negotiation process and after two years the US will say ‘oh no, this does not make sense right now'”, he said.