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What do you think about the disallowed goal in the Saudi Arabia – Spain match?
An international monitoring report has identified seven cases of potentially match-fixing at the 2026 Men’s World Cup due to suspected betting irregularities that directly contradict what the Federation of International Football Associations (FIFA) has declared.
The Copenhagen Group, an independent international network dedicated to monitoring and combating match-fixing, issued seven warnings following a monitoring process covering 104 matches of the tournament.
The full report has not yet been published, but the Council of Europe has published a summary of its findings, according to the newspaper.The AthleticDuring the tournament, the most obvious cases that caused doubts are:
1 – Themba Zwane of South Africa received a red card in the 84th minute of his country’s opening game against Mexico.
2. Bets worth $4.8 million (£3.6 million) were collected by American cryptocurrency-based prediction platform PolyMarket on Spain not winning against Cape Verde, a game that ended in a goalless draw in the group stage.
3 – Video assistant referee (VAR) technology delayed three-and-a-half minutes before disallowing Spain’s Ferran Torres’ goal in the 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia.
The report also revealed exciting details related to the case of American striker Folarin Balogun. On July 2nd, the same day that the player was sent off in the round of 32 against Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Polymarket platform opened a betting market on the question: “Will Balogun play against Belgium?”
FIFA’s Disciplinary Committee has not confirmed his eligibility until July 5 after suspending him. The Copenhagen report noted that no similar markets were opened for any of the other 14 red-carded players at the tournament, none of whom had their suspensions lifted.
The group, which operates under the Council of Europe’s McCullin Convention against match-fixing, said it had sent a formal request to FIFA for a written clarification on the Balogun case. For its part, The Athletic has contacted FIFA and Polymarket for comment, but has yet to receive a response.
Conflicting results
The Copenhagen panel’s findings were shocking as they were released on Tuesday, with FIFA’s integrity task force announcing that “no questionable betting or indications of match-fixing were found” during the tournament. The Group and the Council of Europe participate as independent members of the same working group that was formed in 2019.
On the other hand, the Copenhagen group announced on Wednesday that it had monitored seven “yellow alerts”. According to his definition, a yellow alert is issued when there are “multiple indicators of violations,” which could include unwarranted fluctuations in odds of winning or social media rumors.
The group uses a four-tier system: green is “normal”, yellow is “low alert”, orange is “high alert” and red is “the highest level of risk”.
In this context, betting expert Christian Kalb, who previously worked with Copenhagen Group, told The Athletic that these warnings do not necessarily mean fraud.
“These alerts can be explained by unusual behavior such as a change in odds or liquidity hedging,” Kalb explained. “The amount of betting on the World Cup is huge and each match represents billions of pounds, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions.”
“The main issue is conflict of interest and inside information. Traditional bookmakers can use prediction markets such as Polymarket to hedge the risks when everyone bets on the favourite, and use its non-win outcome as a type of insurance to reduce losses.”
The report stated that the group had put 15 matches under strict surveillance, especially in the last round of the group stage, and had analyzed 12 controversial incidents.
The group estimated total betting volume on the tournament to be around $240 billion, almost double the volume of betting on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
