Why Iran is in so much danger in the Sea of ​​Hormuz

After a more than 10-day offensive to control the critical Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s leaders may appear to have three choices. None of them offer a clear path to victory.

The first is to concede much of what Washington wants: guarantee free and safe passage by ending attacks on the Gulf of Hormuz, abandon or dilute Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, and accept intervention by the international nuclear watchdog.

In return, Tehran seeks a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, sanctions relief and deterrence of further attacks.

This is probably the cheapest option, but it is politically very expensive.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz without affirming Iran’s recognized role in managing the waterway would mean what some in Tehran see as a newfound deterrent that could be seen as more effective than Iran’s missiles, regional proxies or nuclear program.

For the first time, the Islamic Republic has demonstrated its ability to impose immediate costs on the global economy for an attack on its territory by its enemies.

Meanwhile, it has long been suggested that Iran cannot be forced to abandon its nuclear program.

Accepting the call for tighter limits on nuclear activities after months of strikes would allow hardliners to argue that US military pressure has worked. It could also open the door to more questions about Iran’s missile program and its ties to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraq’s Shiite groups and Yemen’s Houthis.

The second option is to increase. Iran may intensify its attacks on US military bases, shipping and critical infrastructure in the Gulf Arab states in the hope of forcing Washington and its allies to comply.

This poses the greatest military risk. A mass-damage attack on Gulf infrastructure could draw Iran’s neighbors directly into conflict and challenge a broader coalition.

A third option is to maintain the current instability: keep the shipping and energy markets under enough pressure, but not enough to return to all-out war with the US.

This seems to be in line with the founding ideology of the Islamic Republic. Iran does not need to defeat a strong enemy if it can hold out longer than that enemy is willing to fight. Salvation itself can be presented as victory. But sanctions, war damage and inflation are increasing pressure at home.

And over time, a paradox can emerge: the more Iran uses the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon, the less powerful it will become if countries find new ways to export energy and other goods from the region.

The Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged the contradiction, and argued that the price of Hormuz is not decreasing, but increasing the amount transported in it. A permanently insecure waterway encourages the world to find ways around Iran.