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Pa White House On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump was warm and friendly to Iraq’s prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, 40, describing him as “young”, “beautiful” and someone he wanted to work with. They shook hands warmly.
Later in the day came a warning, as US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned Iraq to remove the country’s Iran-aligned military equipment.
Like war between the US and Iran increasingly, experts say al-Zaidi’s meetings in Washington summed up how Iraq could find itself bound, and unite two difficult relationships that cannot afford to destroy – with the United States and Iran.
What is the Iraqi PM doing in the US?
Trump and al-Zaidi pledged to expand economic ties and boost Iraq’s oil output during their White House meeting.
A source familiar with the matter told Al Jazeera that meetings between Iraqi officials and US and International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials have been rescheduled. According to the source, who asked not to be named, Iraq wants to get an IMF loan of up to $8bn.
Tuesday’s meeting came after Trump backed al-Zaidi, a politically inexperienced businessman, and publicly challenged former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to become prime minister earlier this year. Al-Maliki, a separatist seen as having close ties to Iran, later stepped down from the conflict in April.
The Iraqi government has already said that waiting several oil and gas contracts have been signed during al-Zaidi’s visit to the US, with Trump also promising several deals in the Oval Office meeting.
He called al-Zaidi “a great winner, a new hero”.
“Iraq has a lot of potential because of their oil and other things, but because of their oil, and we’re going to do a lot of it,” Trump said.
The meeting also comes as the US prepares to reduce its military presence in Iraq.
Both al-Zaidi and Trump said that the remaining US troops in Iraq, which are believed to be less than 2,000, will leave Iraq by September 30. This is the day that al-Zaidi promised that the forces operating in Iraq will disarm.
But after some time, Hegseth met al-Zaidi. In X’s letter shortly after the meeting, Hegseth said that Iraq “must prove its strength and remove the weapons that are allied with Iran” which he often criticizes the US military during the US-Israel war in Iran.
It was a taste of the problems that could grow in Iraq in the coming weeks, experts said.
What did Kataib Hezbollah say?
Kataib Hezbollah is part of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance”, a loose group of groups including Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. It is also one of the largest groups within the Popular Promotional Groups (PMF), which was established in 2014 to stop the lightning advance by ISIL (ISIS) at that time.
On Tuesday, the group made it clear that it is ready to join the war against the US if necessary.
“If a war is launched against the Islamic Republic of Iran, the participation of opposition groups will be immediate and decisive. This decision is based on our opinion and is not allowed to be discussed,” said Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, the head of Kataib Hezbollah, according to Iran’s Fars news agency.
The balance of Iraq
Ignoring the demands of the Trump administration will not be easy in Iraq. It relies on US companies to replace its oil and gas industry.
However, there are limits to which Iraq cannot afford to bow before the US.
“Baghdad is engaging with Washington, but it does not allow its territory to be used as a launching pad for an attack on Iran,” Inna Rudolf, director of the Center for Statecraft & National Security at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.
“Despite their desire to revive and expand relations with the United States, successive Iraqi governments have been careful to maintain good relations with Iran, which have been historically, religiously, commercially and diplomatically strong.”
About 60 percent of Iraq’s population is Shia Muslim, and Iran has developed strong ties with many of the country’s Shia political parties, religious groups, and militias. These connections, including economic and security links, give Tehran significant influence in Iraqi politics.
About to the funeral of the former leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an official party was held at Najaf International Airport in Iraq, followed by public demonstrations in the Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala.
Although Iraq refuses to use its territory to attack Iran, Rudolf added that Iran-aligned military and political organizations still have influence within the Iraqi government and parliament.
“This creates a double-edged relationship: the government’s negotiations require a stable and stable cooperation with Tehran, while the political and security sectors maintain their autonomy.”
Rudolf continued: “The result is total interdependence: cooperation on trade, power and cross-border relations with people mistrust, family feuds, and the constant danger that armed resistance groups can do without Baghdad’s favor.”
How will the escalation between the US and Iran affect Iraq?
Rudolf added that the escalation could lead to more recent, multi-faceted attacks on Iraq.
“First, it can lead to direct security: groups allied to Iran who refuse to install weapons or security changes can withdraw from Iraqi soil for regional reasons, invite terrorists who violate the regime and put people at risk – every attack leads to retaliation, and every retaliation hurts the stability that was already there.”
He added that Iraq’s political system was already divided, and that this kind of crisis would only make the divisions worse. Governmental relations can be broken, making it difficult for them to change.
In addition, economic and humanitarian crises may follow, leading to disruption of trade and energy links, halting investment and reconstruction, and new migration, Rudolf said.
“Finally, Iraq’s diplomatic space is reduced: instead of being a neutral, Baghdad can be forced to become a court, making good relations and making reliable security more difficult.
“The real danger is not an all-out war but a thousand small threats that destabilize Iraq’s sovereignty.”
