Even after the Iran war, the next oil shock is already on the way Rising prices

As the animosity between the United States and Iran grows, the world’s attention has also shifted to recent threats.

Across the Middle East, families have endured fear, uncertainty and violence. Communities have experienced the upheaval, displacement and destruction that war brings. Protecting lives must be an immediate priority.

However, whatever happens in the coming days and weeks, the main lesson will remain.

The conflict has highlighted the global financial crisis: as long as countries depend on fossil fuels, any instability can lead to financial problems everywhere.

It has also highlighted another factor: the transition to renewable energy and increased financial security and resilience.

As the director of Greenpeace International, I regularly speak with friends around the world who explain to me how the US-Israel war is happening around the world.

In East Asia and Southeast Asia, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to higher oil prices, inflation and pressure on domestic revenues in countries that are heavily dependent on oil and gas imports. Across Africa and Latin America, rising oil prices have increased the burden on already poor people. In Europe, North America and Australia, the cost of using renewable energy has affected transportation costs, electricity costs and ultimately the cost of daily goods.

This is cosmic expansion: the inflationary force produced by an economic system that is heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

The more dependent an economy is on oil, the more exposed it is to disruptions far beyond its borders. The opposite is also true. Any increase in local renewable energy reduces that exposure by weakening the link between global pressures and domestic investment, making countries more resilient and independent.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development has warned that the conflict in the Middle East is driving inflation and low growth, with high energy prices flowing to transport, energy costs and consumer prices. He added that governments in at least 46 countries have already implemented emergency measures to protect households and businesses from rising fuel prices.

The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Food Program (WFP) have warned that rising prices of oil, gas and fertilizers are increasing food insecurity. Separately, the WFP says 45 million people could be pushed into extreme hunger.

What is often portrayed as the unfortunate result of geopolitics is, in fact, a manifestation of the oil boom. These companies have been active in the use of friction and vibration energy.

Time and time again, volatility and volatility in prices have resulted in extraordinary profits for the oil industry. An analysis based on data from Rystad Energy found that the world’s 100 largest oil and gas companies made more than $30m an hour in profits in the first month of the war.

When problems reveal the weakness of the system, the corporate response is shockingly obvious: calls for more drilling, more pipelines, faster approvals, more public support and less environmental protection.

The same problems that reveal the cost of dependence on oil are used to justify its deepening. This is the playbook for the oil company: turn disruption into profit, then use disruption to argue against the very details of the system that created the threat in the first place.

The result is a cycle that leaves people facing repeated economic hardships. Worse yet, communities are created to provide income that undermines them.

Even after the conflict ends, the Strait of Hormuz remains open, and energy markets stabilize, a major threat remains.

The next upheaval may come from another conflict, another political conflict, another crisis, or bad weather. As long as the economy is dependent on oil sold in vulnerable international markets, families will continue to have power beyond their control.

That is why the negotiations should not end with ceasefires, shipping channels, or short-term price movements.

It should continue and focus on endurance.

Renewable energy is often discussed primarily as a solution to climate change as it is increasingly a means of economic security as well.

Every rooftop solar system, battery, electric bus, and energy-efficient building weakens the link between national volatility and household income. Locally produced renewable energy cannot be blocked, allowed or captured in international disputes. It reduces exposure to volatile oil markets and strengthens independence.

Countries that accelerate the transition to renewable energy will be protected from future oil risks. Those who remain dependent will continue to experience the recurrence of fossilflation.

The lesson from the US-Israel conflict over Iran is that the economic insecurity caused by oil dependence persists long after the headlines fade.

Building a peaceful, secure and sustainable future requires more than resolving social conflicts. There is a need to change the power system that allows problems in one part of the world to affect people everywhere.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect Al Jazeera’s influence.