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Damascus was rocked on Tuesday by an explosion during a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron, the first head of the European Union to visit the country since forces led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa ousted Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.
Another bomb blast in Damascus last week killed at least nine people.
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Eighteen people were injured in the latest blast on Tuesday, which occurred after the first device that security forces had defused near the French President’s hotel was detonated, followed by a second explosion a few minutes later, the state news agency, SANA, reported.
Al-Sharaa’s government has faced countless challenges since al-Assad was ousted two years ago. Having ruled a deeply divided country ravaged by years of civil war, which has served as a playground for foreign powers such as Russia, Iran, and allied Shia militias, unemployment and legal uncertainty are on the rise.
While the exact nature of the bombings remains unclear, speculation centers on remnants of the ISIL (ISIS) group. Its former capital, Raqqa, in northeastern Syria has been matched by its brutality, and the group remains a low-profile group. United Nations comparison the group still boasts between 1,500 and 3,000 fighters in Syria and neighboring Iraq.
ISIL “is still there and still active”, Aron Lund, a partner at Century International, a New York-based think tank, told Al Jazeera, adding that, until now, the thoughts about the recent bombings were mainly public.
“It’s not really about the numbers. You just need a few guys to make and plant a bomb to make an external impact,” he said, referring to the government’s efforts to ensure success and attract much-needed tourism and foreign investment, which bombings like Tuesday’s could easily disrupt. “Political and ideological, these things couldn’t have come at a worse time,” added Lund.
The presence of armies and factions
Although al-Sharaa has played down its hopes of regaining control of almost all of Syria after years of war, in some areas law is well maintained by local militias that have joined the army, or is non-existent. Some militant groups also remain active after years of war.
In addition to those who remain loyal to the old al-Assad regime, the Shia militia that originally allied with Iran to support the old regime is still active. All the while, mistrust and competition with neighbors Iran and Iraq, the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, and Israel – which has proven its willingness to support minority groups, such as the Syrian Druze, against the government – threaten the construction of the government of al-Sharaa, which began in December 2024.
“Damascus controls many parts of Syria formally, including the main cities and the northeast after the January integration agreement,” Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst at the Crisis Group, said, adding that the regime’s control extends from the strongest areas in the west and center to the weakest areas on the southern border and in the majority of Druze areas.
“Syria’s remaining enemies are facing three different challenges with different goals and strategies,” Hawach continued. “ISIL cells want to undermine the new order through the areas controlled by the government, the former governments act as destroyers, and the armed actors in Suwayda and the northeast retain the ability to use force to challenge the way Damascus controls and integrates them.”
The issue between the Druze and the local people came to a head July 2025 when the war between the Druze and the Bedouins in the area overflowed into an open conflict, allowing Israel to intervene in what they said was the Druze’s place Suwayda bullets after the Syrian government forces entered the city Druze-many.
Militants loyal to the former regime have been active in recent weeks. Earlier this week, al-Assad’s billionaire cousin Rami Makhlouf, who Al Jazeera. report in January he was donating money from exile in Moscow to Alawite militias in Syria, he released a video that appeared to threaten the government in Damascus. Asking for the release of all Alawite prisoners, Makhlouf warned, “If I say I’m going to do something, I do it.”
Insider threat
Experts warned that some of the problems facing al-Sharaa may be coming from areas it once relied on. In preparation for its advance in December 2024, al-Sharaa came from the conservative group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with a number of competing and often religiously motivated groups.
However, after the euphoria of al-Assad’s ouster has come the grim reality of governing a country devastated by 14 years of brutal war and an economy devastated by corruption and sanctions.
While the foreign currency is still there, sanctions relief is coming. In June 2025US President Donald Trump surprised many, especially among his opponents inside Syria, by lifting sanctions on “organizations that are very important to the development of Syria, the work of its government, and the reconstruction of the country’s culture”, the US Treasury Department said in a statement.
However, while the lifting of sanctions may be necessary for future funding, it reflects the prospect of reducing al-Sharaa’s support among unemployed conservative youth who were opposed to helping him seize and maintain power.
“I think the biggest threat to the new government comes from within,” said Caroline Rose of the New Lines Institute, adding that the threat came “not from one group or individual, but rather from division”.
“I think that people in the main al-Sharaa region and the old HTS group may start a campaign against the new regime and al-Sharaa individually, if they continue to face complaints about the government’s policies that emphasize dealing with the West.”
