How the US-Iran conflict is changing political opportunities in Africa | Story

Lagos, Nigeria The first economic shock from the United States-Israel war on Iran has been felt through oil markets, shipping channels and financial uncertainty. But its long-term effects could extend to the Middle East, reshaping energy markets, trade networks and international partnerships.

Across Africa, governments are reassessing their energy security, defense cooperation and investment strategies as uncertainty grows over the future of international cooperation and supply chains.

For countries already struggling with conflict, debt problems and fragile economies, the crisis poses new risks. However, it also accelerates the long-standing debate about strengthening domestic power, strengthening foreign relations and reducing dependence on foreign powers.

The changing geopolitical landscape

Africa’s foreign policy is entering a period of change. As international governments face security challenges, African governments are reassessing investment strategies, funding mechanisms and diplomatic relations.

For some professionals, disruption also offers opportunities. The great uncertainty of the international system may lead African countries to change their sources of finance, strengthen regional institutions and have better relations with foreign countries.

Iran’s role in Africa is also examined through the lens of these changes. Tehran has tried to increase the political and security situation in other parts of the continent, especially since relations between some African governments and their Western counterparts have deteriorated. However, experts have said that a long-term conflict could undermine Iran’s economic potential and strengthen foreign relations.

Any reduction in Iran’s cooperation would not mean less involvement by other countries in Africa’s security affairs. Russia and Turkey are known as some of the foreign powers that have the opportunity to expand their positions. Moscow has increased military cooperation and military ties through initiatives such as Africa Corps while Ankara has expanded its influence through defense exports, drone technology, training programs and diplomatic engagement.

The result, according to some experts, may not be a decrease in foreign involvement in African security issues but an increase in competition between foreign powers that want power.

Sudan and the Red Sea struggle a lot

Sudan provides one example of how the transformation of developing countries is taking place on the ground. The country has become a center of competition between regional powers, and observers are increasingly suggesting that its civil war is being shaped by foreign alliances, aid networks and Red Sea rivalries.

Some analysts hope that greater regional involvement in the US-Iran crisis will encourage Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to cooperate more closely and reduce tensions in Sudan. So far, the result has not happened.

Leena Badri, a Sudanese researcher and non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told Al Jazeera that hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough had not gone well.

“Any hope that Iran’s war will push Saudi Arabia and the UAE closer together and reduce pressure on Sudan has not materialized so far. If anything, their rivalry over Sudan and the Red Sea is intensifying, which means there is no real sign of this war.”

The Iran war has also highlighted the importance of maritime access. Analysts have pointed to Iran’s military alliance with the Sudanese military and part of the Red Sea food supply chain while competing regional networks are said to be seeking to attract attention through different means.

In Sudan and neighboring countries, the crisis has fueled concerns that the destabilization of Africa’s borders could seriously disrupt politics and security across the Red Sea route.

The same concern is spreading throughout Africa. As Washington and its allies devote more attention and resources to security challenges in the Middle East, some African governments have expressed concern that diplomatic engagement and security assistance may not receive attention. For the countries facing insecurity in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, any reduction that is focused on the world will increase the existing problems.

Strong defense is very difficult

The crisis has also shown that Africa is vulnerable to disruptions in major maritime routes. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil passageway, while the invasion of the Red Sea from 2023 has disrupted commercial shipping. For African economies that rely on imported oil, fertilizers and other essential commodities, rising transport costs and supply uncertainty have raised concerns about economic stability.

International relations researcher from South Africa, Aaliyah Vayez, said the crisis should be seen as part of a larger global change affecting African economic decisions and revealing the need for courage.

“The crisis of Hormuz shows how the future of Africa’s economy is closely linked to the international system. It reinforces the need for countries to strengthen their domestic capacities, consolidate relations and reduce risks in energy, trade and commerce,” Vayez told Al Jazeera.

Researchers have argued that these disturbances also reflect deeper problems. The pressure has also led to calls for reforms that policymakers have been pushing for years: increasing refining capacity, improving supply networks and reducing dependence on foreign energy markets.

Africa exports most of its crude oil while importing a large portion of its refined oil, leaving many countries vulnerable to external shocks. Increasing domestic refining capacity, therefore, is seen by policymakers as a priority.

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is widely seen as a development that could change this. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the facility will begin to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined oil and could boost domestic energy security.

Some areas remain transparent. Eastern and Southern African countries continue to rely on oil imports from the Gulf, leaving them vulnerable to any disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, negotiations are said to have begun to expand refining capacity in East Africa. A refinery project involving local partners could, when completed, help reduce dependence on imported oil and improve energy efficiency along the Indian Ocean.

System configuration window

The Strait of Hormuz crisis seems to be accelerating the changes that were already underway. It has shown weaknesses in African power systems, administrative networks, and administrative networks.

The key question is whether the stimulus will continue as markets stabilize and shipping channels improve.

For Africa, the problem is closer than oil prices. It has also highlighted concerns about excessive dependence on foreign actors for energy, finance and security while also creating what some observers see as an opportunity to pursue greater independence.

This would include increasing refining capacity, strengthening regional infrastructure and accelerating cooperation through the African Continental Free Trade Area. Greater economic integration would help reduce exposure to external indicators while allowing African countries to reap more benefits from their own resources, markets and land.

The challenge will be whether governments can translate this period of turmoil into sustained policy change. Past crises have highlighted insecurities, from energy dependence to decentralized societies and industrialization. The difference this time will depend on whether the training results in long-term investment rather than short-term rehabilitation.

Marie Camara, who is the head of the African CEO Forum, said the crisis should be seen not as a distraction but as an opportunity for Africa to strengthen its role in the global economy.

“Beyond the current disruption, this crisis also presents an opportunity. Africa can take advantage of this situation to reap benefits by changing trade patterns and financial systems. Most importantly, it emphasizes the importance of multilateral cooperation, reducing dependence on external transport and promoting intra-African trade.”